ME - SUSA/Our Power Maine: Mills +7% over LePage
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  ME - SUSA/Our Power Maine: Mills +7% over LePage
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Author Topic: ME - SUSA/Our Power Maine: Mills +7% over LePage  (Read 968 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 01, 2021, 04:38:11 PM »

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5190e622-34a4-49c2-8e3c-b8145a7c644d

Our Power Maine is a group running a consumer-owned electric utility. They seem to oppose the corridor and support the referendum against it.

May 13-19
514 registered voters
MoE: 5.3%

Janet Mills 45%
Paul LePage 38%
Other 2%
Michael Barden (G) 1%
Undecided 12%
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2021, 06:09:29 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2021, 06:13:26 PM by #Neoliberal Elitist Butte »

Seems about right. I think this is less likely to flip than NV but a more likely GOP pick-up than MN and NM. LePage wouldn’t necessarily be a bad choice for the GOP here either. Lean D.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2021, 06:11:09 PM »

Is nominating LePage again really the best the Maine GOP can do?

I still expect Mills to be re-elected. I'm not sure by how much though.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2021, 06:20:32 PM »

Seems about right. I think this is less likely to flip than NV but a more likely GOP pick-up than MN and NM. LePage wouldn’t necessarily be a bad choice for the GOP here either. Lean D.
Agree about MN but disagree about Lepage being a good choice and it being more likely to flip than New Mexico. The difference between ME and NM presidential was like 1-2 points so not a big gap. Grisham is also more polarizing than Mills and a lot of people are angry at her coronavirus policies+ the sexual harassment scandal that just came out. I think NM has real dark horse potential
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2021, 06:31:00 PM »

Seems about right. I think this is less likely to flip than NV but a more likely GOP pick-up than MN and NM. LePage wouldn’t necessarily be a bad choice for the GOP here either. Lean D.
Agree about MN but disagree about Lepage being a good choice and it being more likely to flip than New Mexico. The difference between ME and NM presidential was like 1-2 points so not a big gap. Grisham is also more polarizing than Mills and a lot of people are angry at her coronavirus policies+ the sexual harassment scandal that just came out. I think NM has real dark horse potential

It just boils down to where the white vote has trended more inflexibly D — ME-1 or NM. There’s favorable trends for both parties in both states, but with ME being more rural and having more of a R down-ballot tradition, I’d give it the edge over NM, which even trended D this year and where R inroads with Hispanic voters were not particularly pronounced. We’ll see later what happens in the NM-1 special election, but if it’s a Stansbury blowout close to Biden levels and turnout is comparatively high, it’s probably a sign that the race is not particularly winnable for Republicans.
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Chips
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2021, 10:08:55 PM »

Lean D.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2021, 06:07:42 PM »

This is a disastrous result. Once polling error is accounted for (most ME-PRES polls in 2020 were D+10 or higher), the GOP will be on track gain/hold unchallenged state government trifectas in AZ, GA, NC, NM, NH, NV, MN, MI, PA, WI. The future of democracy is likely doomed
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soundchaser
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2021, 08:38:08 PM »

This is a disastrous result. Once polling error is accounted for (most ME-PRES polls in 2020 were D+10 or higher), the GOP will be on track gain/hold unchallenged state government trifectas in AZ, GA, NC, NM, NH, NV, MN, MI, PA, WI. The future of democracy is likely doomed

The most reasonable choice (at this point) does indeed seem to be the D 10-15% range

Please tell us more, expert in polling errors.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2021, 09:17:35 PM »

This is a disastrous result. Once polling error is accounted for (most ME-PRES polls in 2020 were D+10 or higher), the GOP will be on track gain/hold unchallenged state government trifectas in AZ, GA, NC, NM, NH, NV, MN, MI, PA, WI. The future of democracy is likely doomed

The most reasonable choice (at this point) does indeed seem to be the D 10-15% range

Please tell us more, expert in polling errors.

I was indeed (thankfully) off on the NM-1 margin. But it is still just one sample, and hopefully future special elections and the VA/NJ gubernatorials will back up a similar picture. In this contest, if Mills is polling closer to the +10-15% range, there would be much less cause for concern.
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beesley
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2021, 03:12:48 PM »

It wouldn't shock me if there was polling error in this race, but there is also no evidence that the race is definitely close.
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TML
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2021, 11:55:58 PM »

Remember that recent polling errors of big magnitude in this state have occurred with Donald Trump and/or Susan Collins on the ballot. In 2018, polls were pretty close to the actual results of the Senate, governor, and 2nd district House elections. Without Trump and/or Collins on the ballot in 2022, I would expect polling errors to be much smaller than they were in 2014/2016/2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2021, 12:01:31 AM »

It wouldn't shock me if there was polling error in this race, but there is also no evidence that the race is definitely close.

Lol these are RV polls not LV polls this early that's why we saw D's competetive in OH, we will get the LV screen next yr

That's why there were polls showing a 20 pt lead for Newsom and in the R poll it showed a tied, it's probably not a tie but it Newsom plus 5 not 20
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2021, 10:15:16 AM »

Maine has one of the largest proportions of D-leaning independents of any state. This poll shows Mills has retained their support, and this race remains Lean D provided Mills keeps them in her column.

Remember that recent polling errors of big magnitude in this state have occurred with Donald Trump and/or Susan Collins on the ballot. In 2018, polls were pretty close to the actual results of the Senate, governor, and 2nd district House elections. Without Trump and/or Collins on the ballot in 2022, I would expect polling errors to be much smaller than they were in 2014/2016/2020.
By the same token this poll shows LePage faring better with younger voters than older (which would never happen on election day) so the possibility of systemic response bias cannot be ruled out.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2021, 01:28:46 PM »

As long as there's no powerful third-party candidate, I see no reason why Mills shouldn't win without too much trouble. LePage only won by the combination of huge R waves and third-party spoilers, and he was never popular.

Likely D.
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