OK - Amber Integrated: +49% plurality of Republicans want rump to run
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  OK - Amber Integrated: +49% plurality of Republicans want rump to run
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Author Topic: OK - Amber Integrated: +49% plurality of Republicans want rump to run  (Read 409 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 01, 2021, 01:43:55 PM »

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60099f1f6ffad96a2d94bf98/t/6066423fe856f432ebb6234b/1617314367733/AI+OK+Statewide+-+Crosstab+Results+-+March+2021+-+Public+Results.pdf

Amber Integrated
March 26-28
500 registered voters in full sample, but only 261 Republicans
MoE: 4.38% for full sample
Changes with December survey

"As you may have heard, former President Trump may run in the 2024 presidential election. Do you want Donald Trump to run for President in 2024, or not?"

Yes 71%
No 22%
Don't know/unsure 7%
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2021, 10:24:56 PM »

Not a surprise.
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Adam Griffin
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Greece


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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2021, 10:52:58 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2021, 11:01:23 PM by FL & OH Are Gone, Ya Dinguses »

Title is a bit misleading (the use of the term plurality coupled with use of %; maybe it'd be better to say "Republicans want Trump to run again by a 49-point margin").

Nevertheless, it's rather interesting that among all Oklahoma RVs, the bulk don't want him to run in 2024 (46% want him to run again versus 48% who do not). This includes 52% of independents and 88% of Democrats.

That last figure is probably the most interesting piece of data on this question in a state like OK, as registered Ds are still 40% of the two-party breakdown in OK and still almost certainly includes a hefty sum of Dixiecrats who'll likely switch their registrations to R by the 2024 primary (maybe as much as 25% of the party's current registration could be considered Dixiecrats; remember that a lot of D general election voters are registered independents). This is at least tentatively backed up by the fact that 23% of Oklahoma Ds disapprove of Biden's performance: ridiculously high numbers given Biden's disapproval among Ds nationally in the low single digits.
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