Mason-Dixon: Allen(R) leads by four points over Webb(D)

[Frodo]

And before people point out that I am voting for Jim Webb who has spoken out against the Iraq War, and favors withdrawing American troops (prematurely) from Iraq, I would like to point out that I am voting for him despite -and not because- of his antiwar stance, and that he doesn't care for being politically correct.  Add to this that I despise Allen so much and genuinely fear that he actually has a decent chance of winning the GOP nomination if Webb doesn't torpedo his presidential ambitions this November in the meantime by keeping this race a nail-biter to the very end, holding him below 55% of the vote.   

[Frodo]

I think Evan Bayh can win the nomination, he will be a formable opponent.

As a conservative southern Democrat, I hope either Mark Warner or Evan Bayh do win their party's nomination, as they are the only Democrats I could countenance voting for in 2008.  But given the strength of the antiwar left (as shown in Lamont's successful defeat of Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary in Connecticut), I am not banking on it.
--------------------------------------

To sum up: all I am saying is that I want to keep my options open by having the GOP nominate a candidate I could vote for in the event my party goes nuts by nominating some 21st century reincarnation of George McGovern.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Evan Bayh or Mark Warner can win because the anti-left may swallow their social leftism and want to win more than elect someone of their kind. They went with the flip flopping John Kerry and the Dems lost. They think that Hillary is just as liberal as he is, so they might vote for the two men. They did in 1992 because they lost 3 elections in a row and went with the moderate Bill Clinton.

[Frodo]

I think Evan Bayh or Mark Warner can win because the anti-left may swallow their social leftism and want to win more than elect someone of their kind. They went with the flip flopping John Kerry and the Dems lost. They think that Hillary is just as liberal as he is, so they might vote for the two men. They did in 1992 because they lost 3 elections in a row and went with the moderate Bill Clinton.

This is all wishful thinking -they won't go for whom they consider a 'DINO' now, especially with antiwar fervor at a feverish high, which wasn't the case in 2004 -and the longer the Iraq War drags on, antiwar sentiment within the Democratic Party will grow only stronger as the 2008 elections approach.  Hillary Clinton is likely to be as far 'right' as they will allow themselves to go...if that.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If that is wishful thinking why did they go with moderate Bill Clinton over the liberals in 1992, it isn't wishful thinking. The Dems want to win more than go with some liberal from the northeast.

[Frodo]

If that is wishful thinking why did they go with moderate Bill Clinton over the liberals in 1992, it isn't wishful thinking. The Dems want to win more than go with some liberal from the northeast.

Do not compare 2008 with 1992 -those are two entirely different situations.  They went with Bill Clinton because the Cold War was about over, the Gulf War ended in a complete success, and the country was finally at peace and able to focus most of its attention on reviving the economy.

In 2008, we will still be in the middle of a worldwide war on terrorism, with an ongoing war in Iraq.  National security will be front and center in a war it never was in 1992 or in 2000.  And with an unpopular war and a burgeoning antiwar movement that looks to be getting only stronger as the Iraq war continues, I strongly doubt that either Mark Warner or Evan Bayh will win the nod when Russ Feingold and Al Gore have the hearts and minds of the Democratic base, especially with antiwar sentiment as strong as it is now.   

[© tweed]

I think Evan Bayh can win the nomination, he will be a formable opponent.

Bayh really has no chance at winning the nomination barring some major geopolitical event.  He's been trying to move left over the past year+, but that will do little for him as progressives won't pass up Feingold or Gore for Evan Bayh, regardless to his vote on John Roberts.  Warner on the other hand has some semblance of a chance; he comes off as bright and doesn't have a long "hawkish" voting record, rather just a crisp term of executive experience.  But still I think the primary will come down to the establishment (Hillary Clinton) v. the antiwar left (Al Gore if he runs or Russ Feingold).

As for Webb, it's cool that he's making a run, but I really don't think he has much of a chance.  Virginia however is looking to be more winnable than Tennessee, for what it's worth.  Even if he secured more money I don't see Webb's chances being any better than one in five.  As for Allen in 2008, he's absolutely finished before he started and may not even run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't say that for sure Bayh has alot of money just like Warner has.  He also has executive experience, being a fmr governor like Warner. As far as 1992 and 2008 is concerned it may be different with a war, but the Dems were coming off successive defeats in 1992 and in 2008. That's for sure.  Even if Warner wins, Bayh probably will be his running mate.

[MarkWarner08]

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-09-07

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This race is now a toss-up. As many have noted on this forum, M-D has an almost uncanny ability to predict the outcome of close races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, but it should be noted that the polls taken during September tend to be less accurate than the ones taken in October. The polls in September don't mean very much. There will be a debate on MTP next week and I would wait until the poll is taken after the debate. So, far in 2000, Allen easily defeated Robb in the debate. I think the debates helps Allen more than it helps Webb.

[© tweed]

Bayh probably will be his running mate.

No chance.  Warner's VP choice would have to be an attempt to shore up the liberal base.  (Did I spell "shore" right in that context?  It's one of those things you hear but don't see in text)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But he who would he pick all the liberals are from states that he has no problem winning: Feingold WI, Richardson NM and no chance of picking John Kerry or Gore. I think Bayh is an excellant choice.  Larry Sabato said so in his prediction on the 2008 nominee.

[© tweed]

Wisconsin would hardly be a lock for Warner.  Kerry only won it by what, 12000 votes?  (going from memory but I remember it was super-close).  And Bayh wouldn't carry Indiana with him, so your point is moot on that count.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin would hardly be a lock for Warner.  Kerry only won it by what, 12000 votes?  (going from memory but I remember it was super-close).  And Bayh wouldn't carry Indiana with him, so your point is moot on that count.

It'd be tough for a Republican to carry it over a Warner/Feingold ticket though, which is fairly likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Boss Tweed, he wouldn't care about IN. IN  manufacturing jobs like OH, and Bayh would help him carry OH. Why would Warner pick Feingold, Feingold is against the war, Warner is for the war.  Evan Bayh voted for the war and believes in the war like Warner.

[Rob]

It'd be tough for a Republican to carry it over a Warner/Feingold ticket though, which is fairly likely.

That's a damn fine ticket, and one that I've been advocating. Warner carries Wisconsin by four or five points with Feingold as veep.

[© tweed]

Boss Tweed, he wouldn't care about IN. IN  manufacturing jobs like OH, and Bayh would help him carry OH. Why would Warner pick Feingold, Feingold is against the war, Warner is for the war.  Evan Bayh voted for the war and believes in the war like Warner.

VPs don't really help outside of their home states.  Look at John Edwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC isn't the same as OH. NC is more conservative. IN has lost manufacturing jobs like OH.

[© tweed]

Uh, what?  I'm aware the climate in 2008 would help Warner in OH, but Bayh being on the ticket won't help him there.  I'm not sure what point you were making with your last post though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

 Alot Indianians move to OH that was the point I am making. The media markets cross with each other. So, Bayh being from IN will help Warner in OH. But either tickets would be good for me.  Feingold/Warner or Warner/Bayh. But Warner might be hard press to win in the south because eventhough he was from VA, he was born and raised in CT. That makes him  northerner.

[HardRCafé]

Add to this that I despise Allen so much and genuinely fear that he actually has a decent chance of winning the GOP nomination if Webb doesn't torpedo his presidential ambitions this November in the meantime by keeping this race a nail-biter to the very end, holding him below 55% of the vote.   

What's not to like?

[© tweed]

Warner would (probably) win VA and that's it for the south.  I don't think he really has regional appeal in the south widespread, not that anybody does from our side.  And I doubt the Born-in-Indiana-Moved-To-Ohio-So-Therefore-I-Like-Evan-Bayh demographic is big enough to make an impact.

[Eraserhead]

Warner would (probably) win VA and that's it for the south.  I don't think he really has regional appeal in the south widespread, not that anybody does from our side.  And I doubt the Born-in-Indiana-Moved-To-Ohio-So-Therefore-I-Like-Evan-Bayh demographic is big enough to make an impact.

I don't think there is any doubt that Warner would win Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do you think ultra liberal Feingold who is against the patriot act and against the war in Iraq will appeal to the heartland. I don't. Bush ran against Kerry for voting against the patriot act willl and the republicans will run the same play book in the next election. Look Clinton took Al Gore and he didn't balance the ticket with an ultra liberal. Evan Bayh has moderate appeal, not just help Warner carry OH. Just like Gore did.

[Nym90]

Do you think ultra liberal Feingold who is against the patriot act and against the war in Iraq will appeal to the heartland. I don't. Bush ran against Kerry for voting against the patriot act willl and the republicans will run the same play book in the next election. Look Clinton took Al Gore and he didn't balance the ticket with an ultra liberal. Evan Bayh has moderate appeal, not just help Warner carry OH. Just like Gore did.

Kerry voted in favor of the Patriot Act (and of course in favor of the war in Iraq as well).