Mason-Dixon: Allen(R) leads by four points over Webb(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-09-07

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Keystone Phil]

Wow, we got to hear from Mason-Dixon! I still don't buy that it is that close but they do know their stuff. When can we get them to do PA?

[Alcon]

Wow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

nuff said. Allen may have did himself in.

I moved Tennesse to tossup not too long ago and this is on the cusp of going the same route.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be so quick to think Webb will win until he has taken the lead.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

The problem with gaffes is that they tend not to have a long effect.  Webb should use this opportunity to keep Allen on the defensive and begin bashing Bush and portraying himself as a Reagan Democrat, as he has been.  Webb is the perfect candidate the Democrats could have nominated in this race, and Allen's gaffe has given him a fighting chance.

[Moooooo]

One more gaffe... Come on Felix, we know you're up to it.

[Sam Spade]

nuff said. Allen may have did himself in.

I moved Tennesse to tossup not too long ago and this is on the cusp of going the same route.

Possibly.  The polls definitely say one thing on this race; only one poll definitely says something on Tennessee.  Rest assured, we will probably get an SUSA or M-D poll on that race soon too, and we will definitely be able to say something then.

My general comment is that we are reaching the point in the campaign where the second test of whether a challenger who has passed the first test (which is getting money and blanket support for the base, and although Webb has still not enough fundraising, I suspect he will get it) succeeds or not comes to the fore.  This is judged by the candidate's appearances in public and whether or not he comes off competant and qualified for the position.  Also, we must judge whether candidate sticks his foot in his mouth too often and whether he comes off as a TTT (third-tier toilet) candidate.

For the competitive race, this means the time when you secure those voters who having been leaning towards you, but are not really sold on you yet.  The third test, which comes later, is the sale of the deal for the voters who can actually win you the race.  Anyway, the second test for Webb is going to be ultra-important here, because most of the populace (and probably most of his leaners) lack a definitive opinion on him yet.

I'm thinking that I may, on my weekly prediction update thread, post a commentary on either this concept or on the impossibility of getting away with making gaffes nowadays due to the expansion of the Internet.

Any preferences as to which one you would want to hear more about?

[Tender Branson]

Ohhh, this can get very close. I hope the Reagan ad gives him another percent and the rest is campaign help from Kaine and Warner and maybe Allens mouth will go suicidal again (at least we can hope so).

[Eraserhead]

Well I expect Webbmania to break out all over the boards now. Man Virginia is trending left. If Webb wins this race it will be by far the biggest upset of the year.

[Eraserhead]

Damn Webb is even in the margin of error! Schumer, cough up some dough you jerk!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. O.K. Time to update my prediction...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not for me it aint, I still won't consider Webb to win this race until he has taken the lead at some point.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is not insignificant - but not enough IMHO to let us get our hopes too high.

Yes, Allen was considered close to untouchable not too long ago - then his mouth seriously did him in, plus reports of who his friends are... and what they're saying are getting around..

But for an incumbent to be below 50%, within the margin of error and more than 10% undecided is not very good news.

[Gustaf]

As Sam says, we know where the race is now: Allen by jus tbelow 5%. Whether Webb can actually translate that into a victory is hard to tell, but it looks like Allen might get a run for his money.

[Rob]

This is great news. I'm still not predicting a Webb victory, but wow! The Hon. Senator Felix must be quaking in his custom alligator-skin Michael Anthony cowboy boots.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean up 4 and 5 in consecutive polls, a combined 18 point swing in a state that is a liberal as VA is conservative

Dem response: Don't get your hopes up, Menendez is still the favorite and obviously win

Webb within 4

Dem response: Wow, George Allen is going down!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's because the Dems need NJ and VA to control the senate and they think they have a fighting chance in both. We aren't predicting an outright Webb victory but it can be an upset.

[Sam Spade]

As Sam says, we know where the race is now: Allen by jus tbelow 5%. Whether Webb can actually translate that into a victory is hard to tell, but it looks like Allen might get a run for his money.

Actually, to be really specific, I would say that Allen's lead in just outside the MOE. 

This can mean a lot of things, but without a reputable poll saying Webb is either tied or leading, I cannot conclude that Allen's lead is inside the MOE.

[Frodo]

I wouldn't be so quick to think Webb will win until he has taken the lead.

Webb will not win, but it is enough for me to know that Allen will not win a second term in a walk, and that the narrowness of the margin by which he wins reelection this year could wreck his presidential ambitions -at least far as 2008 is concerned. 

This poll confirms that. 

[sethm0]

 Overall I think the DSCC is doing a good job this time around, but for the life of me I can't figure out why they are pouring money into Arizona instead of Virginia. Webb could have a shot here if Allen didn't have a 12 : 1 cash advantage.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

 Overall I think the DSCC is doing a good job this time around, but for the life of me I can't figure out why they are pouring money into Arizona instead of Virginia. Webb could have a shot here if Allen didn't have a 12 : 1 cash advantage.

Virginia only recently became more winnable than Arizona, but I agree with you.

[Boris]

C'mon, Howard Dean, Daily Kos, Bill Clinton, anyone. Get Webb some money and let's make this a race.

Frodo, I actually think that if Allen wins the GOP nomination, the Democrats would have an excellent shot at taking back the White House. He can be easily portrayed as a Bush-clone. Which is why I want either Allen to A) blow out Webb (at least win by 10 points or B) for Webb to win. Of course, I'd strongly prefer the latter option.

[Frodo]

Frodo, I actually think that if Allen wins the GOP nomination, the Democrats would have an excellent shot at taking back the White House. He can be easily portrayed as a Bush-clone. Which is why I want either Allen to A) blow out Webb (at least win by 10 points or B) for Webb to win. Of course, I'd strongly prefer the latter option.

Boris, if Democrats choose either Hillary Clinton (who will likely tack to the antiwar left as 2008 approaches), Al Gore, or Russ Feingold as their nominee, I want to have the option of voting Republican to save myself the ignominy of voting for some irresponsible antiwar leftist Dem.  And to do that I need to have a candidate worth voting for as opposed to having to choose between the lesser of two evils.  If a Republican were to win in 2008, I'd prefer it be McCain or Huckabee.  The country would be much better off with either of them at the helm as opposed to yet another George McGovern that my party, unfortunately, is all too likely to nominate.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Evan Bayh can win the nomination, he will be a formable opponent.