What state is most similar to Ontario?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think the answer is clearly Michigan. Toronto is held in far too high esteem. Even if it isn't a Rust Belt city, it isn't nearly as important as Canadians think it is. It's much more like Detroit than it's like NYC in terms of its global stature...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

FWIW, NYC and London are the two Alpha ++ cities.

Toronto is an "Alpha" city in the same tier as Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami.  A notch below but still in the Alpha ranks are Houston, Montreal, San Francisco and Washington DC.

https://www.spottedbylocals.com/blog/alpha-beta-and-gamma-cities/

Comparing Toronto to Chicago or Los Angeles sort of works for me but it still feels extremely off. Foreigners are vastly more interested in Chicago and Los Angeles compared to Toronto. Technically speaking, it makes sense, but, in practice, Toronto is sort of a provincial place?

On a technical basis, Illinois might seem like it would work but nothing in Illinois really resembles Canada (downstate Illinois would be "sui generis" in Canada). New York would work if it wasn't for the fact that NYC is arguably the world's most important city. Michigan is, quite literally, like Ontario though. Culturally speaking, these two places are siblings! I wouldn't over think the Toronto-Detroit analogy tbh.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is Chicago more "worldly" or "cosmopolitan" than Toronto?  They seem to be of a similar stature overall.  Toronto is a lot more of a "city of immigrants" like NYC or Los Angeles than Chicago is.  Chicago is more established and the US is a bigger deal than Canada.  Seems like a draw.

In truth,  a place like Houston is a better analog to Toronto than Chicago but Houston is not like Toronto in myriad other ways. That is what makes this question challenging - Toronto is a rising city, similar to Sunbelt cities, but it is too immigrant heavy and features a dense core more on order of Chicago and NYC for the comparison to work.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Toronto has less of an obvious US match than Vancouver/Seattle or even Calgary/Denver.

Yes. The best one is probably LA but LA is far too important to be compared to Toronto tbh. There is a reason why Hollywood is littered with Canadian actors!