What state is most similar to Ontario?
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  What state is most similar to Ontario?
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Question: Ontario is most similar to
#1
New York
 
#2
Michigan
 
#3
Illinois
 
#4
Another state
 
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Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: What state is most similar to Ontario?  (Read 1753 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: May 30, 2021, 05:00:40 PM »

Geographically probably most like Michigan as it shares the centrality of the Great Lakes with Michigan, but Toronto is a Toronto metro area makes up about half the population and gives it a very different character economically and culturally.  NY like Ontario is liberal, diverse and has a largely "rust belt" economy outside its largest city.  But NYC further removed from rust belt than Toronto is (Toronto arguably in it if not of it) and Toronto in many respects more Chicago-like as one of the two leading Great Lakes cities.  Downstate Illinois really nothing like Ontario though.  Overall Ontario has similar urbanization level of New York and Illinois.
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Storr
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2021, 09:31:34 PM »

Northern Ontario is similar to Northern Michigan (in other words, lots and lots of trees). Though, Toronto is nothing like Detroit. Nor was the province ever singularly focused on one principal industry as highly as Michigan was tied to the automobile. Ontario being divided between the Toronto region and everything else is similar to New York being divided between the New York City region and everything else. Plus, both contain their country's largest cities.  I agree with Chicago being quite similar to Toronto. Both have similar histories and economies. Neither would exist without the respective great lake they border. Illinois would be easily the US state most similar to Ontario if Wisconsin were a part of it. The same might also be true if Northern Ontario was its own province.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2021, 12:55:23 AM »

I guess I'll vote for Illinois, on basis of Toronto being more similar to Chicago than it is to New York.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2021, 08:13:54 AM »

Minnesota might have a case.  Toronto's racial demographics (with plenty of Asian immigrants but fewer blacks and Hispanics) are more similar to Minneapolis than Chicago or NYC, though obviously it's a lot bigger (and its Asian population is wealthier than MSP's).  The areas outside the main metro are even better matches than Ontario with Illinois, I suspect (Ontario is just bigger in all respects). 
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VPH
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2021, 09:58:15 AM »

Minnesota might have a case.  Toronto's racial demographics (with plenty of Asian immigrants but fewer blacks and Hispanics) are more similar to Minneapolis than Chicago or NYC, though obviously it's a lot bigger (and its Asian population is wealthier than MSP's).  The areas outside the main metro are even better matches than Ontario with Illinois, I suspect (Ontario is just bigger in all respects). 
Came here to say Minnesota too! You have a pretty dominant and diverse metro area in Minneapolis with sprawling suburbs, a few college towns elsewhere, mining/industrial areas with left-leaning heritage (Iron Range compares to Northern Ontario), some deeply conservative rurals, a decently sized indigenous population at least compared to the other states here. MN and ON are decent bellwethers for the rest of the country too in terms of trends, if not final results.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2021, 12:46:03 PM »

Northern Ontario is similar to Northern Michigan (in other words, lots and lots of trees). Though, Toronto is nothing like Detroit. Nor was the province ever singularly focused on one principal industry as highly as Michigan was tied to the automobile. Ontario being divided between the Toronto region and everything else is similar to New York being divided between the New York City region and everything else. Plus, both contain their country's largest cities.  I agree with Chicago being quite similar to Toronto. Both have similar histories and economies. Neither would exist without the respective great lake they border. Illinois would be easily the US state most similar to Ontario if Wisconsin were a part of it. The same might also be true if Northern Ontario was its own province.

The big outliers in the Ontario/Michigan comparison are Toronto and Detroit.  SW Ontario is rather Michigan-like.  Windsor and Sarnia are very rust belt-y.  London the main regional center of the region was never really a heavy manufacturing town, but could perhaps be compared to Grand Rapids or Lansing.

Northern Ontario somewhat resembles the Iron Range of Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Eastern Ontario doesn't really line up with anything in the US well though.  It's not rust belt like Upstate NY.  Half of its population is in the national capital region (Ottawa).  The North Country/Thousand Islands region of NY is very thinly populated.

While Toronto dominates not sure if there's really a "rest of Ontario" identity akin to Upstate NY or Downstate IL, they're all so different.  Northern and Southern Ontario is the main divide, they are more different than any of these southern subregions. 

 
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2021, 12:53:20 PM »

I’ve said a combination of New York and Michigan before.  Maybe a combination of New York, Illinois, and Minnesota is a better description.
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2021, 01:15:30 PM »

Minnesota and UP Michigan. Look at all those lakes.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2021, 09:51:54 PM »

Of course if Canada had US-style voting patterns, Hamilton, the Niagara region, Windsor and Northern Ontario would be a lot more Trumpy. 
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2021, 02:51:43 PM »

Given the comments so far - assuming the "other" votes are for Minnesota?
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2021, 04:35:58 PM »

Write-in: Ohio. The most "average" state/province that tends to be fairly swing-y with multiple metropolitan areas.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2021, 10:00:56 PM »

Ohio is far less diverse and more conservative than the US as a whole though.

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ottermax
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2021, 11:21:50 PM »

I actually would argue that a state like California or Texas better represents Ontario because of the massiveness of the province, the large immigrant population, economic centralization, and a robust, sprawling metropolis while there are small towns all around the province.

LA is actually remarkably Toronto like, while you have a place like Sacramento that has similarities to the more quiet Ottawa.

But ultimately there probably isn't a great comparison in the United States because of Toronto's status, and having a federal capital in the mix.
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2021, 02:36:41 AM »

I’ve always thought of Michigan as the Ontario we have at home.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2021, 01:31:58 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2021, 01:47:22 PM by King of Kensington »

In some ways SW Ontario is to Toronto what Michigan is to Chicago.

Chicago and Toronto, the two global cities of the Great Lakes region, with diverse economies and on the edges of the Manufacturing Belt* are both about a 4 hour drive  from Detroit.  And going west from Toronto or east from Chicago you pass through pretty similar terrain.

* Chicago feels more "Rust Belt" though - yes the downtown and lakefront neighborhoods are prosperous but the drive through South Side and into NW Indiana is very "rust belt" indeed and it does have the history of Carl Sandberg and all that.  Toronto has a lot of "un-Midwestern" characteristics in the inner city - the narrow streets, neighborhoods like Cabbagetown and Kensington Market etc.  
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2021, 01:52:20 PM »

I think the answer is clearly Michigan. Toronto is held in far too high esteem. Even if it isn't a Rust Belt city, it isn't nearly as important as Canadians think it is. It's much more like Detroit than it's like NYC in terms of its global stature...
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2021, 02:26:56 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2021, 02:34:54 PM by King of Kensington »

FWIW, NYC and London are the two Alpha ++ cities.

Toronto is an "Alpha" city in the same tier as Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami.  A notch below but still in the Alpha ranks are Houston, Montreal, San Francisco and Washington DC.

https://www.spottedbylocals.com/blog/alpha-beta-and-gamma-cities/
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2021, 03:20:36 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2021, 03:23:41 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

FWIW, NYC and London are the two Alpha ++ cities.

Toronto is an "Alpha" city in the same tier as Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami.  A notch below but still in the Alpha ranks are Houston, Montreal, San Francisco and Washington DC.

https://www.spottedbylocals.com/blog/alpha-beta-and-gamma-cities/

Comparing Toronto to Chicago or Los Angeles sort of works for me but it still feels extremely off. Foreigners are vastly more interested in Chicago and Los Angeles compared to Toronto. Technically speaking, it makes sense, but, in practice, Toronto is sort of a provincial place?

On a technical basis, Illinois might seem like it would work but nothing in Illinois really resembles Canada (downstate Illinois would be "sui generis" in Canada). New York would work if it wasn't for the fact that NYC is arguably the world's most important city. Michigan is, quite literally, like Ontario though. Culturally speaking, these two places are siblings! I wouldn't over think the Toronto-Detroit analogy tbh.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2021, 05:13:21 PM »

Is Chicago more "worldly" or "cosmopolitan" than Toronto?  They seem to be of a similar stature overall.  Toronto is a lot more of a "city of immigrants" like NYC or Los Angeles than Chicago is.  Chicago is more established and the US is a bigger deal than Canada.  Seems like a draw.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2021, 05:16:18 PM »

I can understand Toronto being more like Chicago than New York, but more like Detroit?  

Toronto is the "New York of Canada" but still more like Chicago.  Similar to how BC may be the "California of Canada" but it's obviously more like WA/OR.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2021, 10:43:35 AM »

Is Chicago more "worldly" or "cosmopolitan" than Toronto?  They seem to be of a similar stature overall.  Toronto is a lot more of a "city of immigrants" like NYC or Los Angeles than Chicago is.  Chicago is more established and the US is a bigger deal than Canada.  Seems like a draw.

In truth,  a place like Houston is a better analog to Toronto than Chicago but Houston is not like Toronto in myriad other ways. That is what makes this question challenging - Toronto is a rising city, similar to Sunbelt cities, but it is too immigrant heavy and features a dense core more on order of Chicago and NYC for the comparison to work.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2021, 10:44:26 AM »

Toronto has less of an obvious US match than Vancouver/Seattle or even Calgary/Denver.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2021, 10:47:11 AM »

Toronto has less of an obvious US match than Vancouver/Seattle or even Calgary/Denver.

Yes. The best one is probably LA but LA is far too important to be compared to Toronto tbh. There is a reason why Hollywood is littered with Canadian actors!
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2021, 10:54:58 AM »

Chicago, Queens NY and Los Angeles. 
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Central Lake
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« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2021, 09:49:45 PM »

Minnesota.
 Both have a sharp rural-urban divide. A large proportion of the population live in a large metro area. (Twin Cities and GTA)    The population in both metro areas is quite racially diverse.

 In both the Iron Range and Northern Ontario, the rural-urban divide doesn't really exist. The rural people in both regions vote for left-leaning parties. (Democrats in MN and NDP in ON)

Plus these regions are located in the northern part of the province/state
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