Minnesota might have a case. Toronto's racial demographics (with plenty of Asian immigrants but fewer blacks and Hispanics) are more similar to Minneapolis than Chicago or NYC, though obviously it's a lot bigger (and its Asian population is wealthier than MSP's). The areas outside the main metro are even better matches than Ontario with Illinois, I suspect (Ontario is just bigger in all respects).
Came here to say Minnesota too! You have a pretty dominant and diverse metro area in Minneapolis with sprawling suburbs, a few college towns elsewhere, mining/industrial areas with left-leaning heritage (Iron Range compares to Northern Ontario), some deeply conservative rurals, a decently sized indigenous population at least compared to the other states here. MN and ON are decent bellwethers for the rest of the country too in terms of trends, if not final results.
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