2020 if a war with Iran broke out in January

[Agonized-Statism]

Discuss with maps.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Biden does better depending on the situation. Almost 60% of voters disapproved, and knowing Trump he wouldn't manage it well.

Best case scenario:


Likely scenario (war is stalemate):


Worst case (war goes poorly):

[_.]

A war with Iran would've been, and still is, a disastrous scenario for all parties involved. The consequences (which would last for years, if not decades) would utterly have demolished any prospect Trump had at winning the presidency, and both COVID and the economy (of not just the United States, but the entire world) would be worse off. And there are very few voters to be won by the prospect of war with Iran. Even the pro-Shah Iranian-Americans I know were opposed to a war (and that's really saying something!).

In my opinion, this is probably what the median scenario would look like:

Image Link

The popular vote would be a curbstomp, probably a margin of D+7 to D+9 (in this case).

This isn't even counting the possibility that a third-party Conservative rises and takes some 5% of the vote from Trump. Utah probably would be in the 40s for Trump in that case.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm not sure going to war would help Trump, seeing as how the American public might view a war with Iran as his fault, and Trump's prosecution of such a war probably would leave much to be desired. It also helps that Biden, assuming he still wins the Democratic nomination (and with foreign policy dominating the conversation, he'd have an even better chance of doing so.He probably now wins both the Iowa Caucus/New Hampshire Primaries), as a foreign policy expert would look a lot better compared to Trump.  That said, I don't think Biden picks Harris here. I think he'd underline his foreign policy strengths and pick Susan Rice as his running mate instead.

Joe Biden/Susan Rice (D) 58%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 30%
Evan McMullin/Condoleeza Rice (I) 11%

[Chips]

Biden does better depending on the situation. Almost 60% of voters disapproved, and knowing Trump he wouldn't manage it well.

Best case scenario:


Likely scenario (war is stalemate):


Worst case (war goes poorly):

I'd leave Iowa with Trump in the 2nd scenario but otherwise it looks good.

[MATTROSE94]

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 404 EVs (57%)
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 134 EVs (41%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest state is Florida, which narrowly goes to Donald Trump by a couple of thousand votes. The Democrats also do a bit better in the Senate in this scenario, picking up North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Kansas, and Alaska in addition to the states they won IRL. This would give the Democrats enough votes to abolish the filibuster, add Washington DC as a state, and give them a solid buffer going into 2022.

[BigVic]

2020 OTL map + FL, NC, TX, IA, OH, ME-02

Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) 413 (52.71%) Pres. Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/VP Mike Pence (R-IN) 125 44.10%)

[One Term Floridian]

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 404 EVs (57%)
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 134 EVs (41%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest state is Florida, which narrowly goes to Donald Trump by a couple of thousand votes. The Democrats also do a bit better in the Senate in this scenario, picking up North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Kansas, and Alaska in addition to the states they won IRL. This would give the Democrats enough votes to abolish the filibuster, add Washington DC as a state, and give them a solid buffer going into 2022.

Lol gotta love Trump getting a 404 error map and still winning FL

[Alben Barkley]

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 404 EVs (57%)
President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 134 EVs (41%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest state is Florida, which narrowly goes to Donald Trump by a couple of thousand votes. The Democrats also do a bit better in the Senate in this scenario, picking up North Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Kansas, and Alaska in addition to the states they won IRL. This would give the Democrats enough votes to abolish the filibuster, add Washington DC as a state, and give them a solid buffer going into 2022.

LOLOLOLOL

OK, first of all, to everyone flipping KS but not MO (or even leaving it SOLID R as KS flips), you do realize that while yes, KS voted to the left of MO, it was only by like half a point? If there is a split, it’s not going to be a dramatic one at all, the states will still vote similarly.

Second of all, no Florida does not have magic titanium tilt R meme powers that allow states that voted for Trump by double digits to flip before it, a state that voted for him by just 3 points. That’s insane. Trump would have to be getting absolutely shellacked among college and suburban whites, even in the South, and massively underperforming among WWC and rural whites for this map to be possible. Also probably no Latino shift towards him if Texas is flipping, at least not a significant one. Under these conditions, Florida would flip EASILY, especially if freaking South Carolina is!

Also in this scenario I doubt Trump would cross 60% in any state except WV, WY, probably OK, maybe ND. Even states like KY, TN, AL, AR, SD, etc. he barely got more than 60% in as it was. We’re looking at an actual 1932/1980 style landslide here, and a double digit popular vote shift towards Biden. That means Trump gets blown out of the water in the states he already lost, flips or near-flips in every state that was remotely close, and undeperforming weak margins even in solid R states.

[Skill and Chance]

This would turn off a ton of Kerry-Obama-Trump voters and make COVID dramatically worse sooner.  Bigger than 2008 win for Biden.

[Ferguson97]

You guys are massively underestimating partisanship here. We're talking about a country where wearing masks became a partisan issue just because of what Trump said. An unpopular war would not severely impact him.

Biden flips North Carolina and Florida, but that's it.