On the Record: NJ

[Smash255]

Menendez will win  52-47-1

[CultureKing]

Personally I dont think that its possible to predict whats going to happen in New Jersey at this point... I think October will give us a big shift (either way) at the moment though I would say that either Menendez or Kean would win by about 1% (when its that close it doesnt make alot of sense to say which will win)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I won't give a percentage now, but I do think Menendenz will still win.

Republicans better hope there aren't any photos or footage of Kean with Bush.

[Conan]

I won't give a percentage now, but I do think Menendenz will still win.

Republicans better hope there aren't any photos or footage of Kean with Bush.

It doesnt matter if theres photos. They will use photoshop with a note at the bottom saying "photo for dramatic purposes and not real".  I also see a planned attack on Christie coming. They will also mention Karl Rove. The ads are going to be quite dramatic and awesome. I have also read today that Kean is related (as in family with) to Bush. Although through generations of lineage. Not that theyd use that or anything in an ad. There will probably be ads of Kean with pictures or footage of the war in Iraq obviously. Dont count out them attacking Keans ethics either.

[Conan]

Oooh, Kean is distantly related to George Bush. So is John Kerry. Big deal.

Did you not read what I wrote before that? I said pretty much not that it matters really. I was just pointing out a interesting fact.

[Nym90]

Menendez by 1.

[Silent Hunter]

Kean 51-48 Menendez

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

[Rob]

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional

This coming from one of the most notorious hacks on the forum.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional

This coming from one of the most notorious hacks on the forum.

No, I'm actually quite realistic, obviously you missed a lot of my quotes about things like the MN and OH races and gas prices.  Being anywhere on the right in this forum makes you a hack to most people.  No of the things I said really go 100% against facts at hand.

[Rob]

No, I'm actually quite realistic, obviously you missed a lot of my quotes about things like the MN and OH races and gas prices.

So you're not completely divorced from reality. Bravo.

No of the things I said really go 100% against facts at hand.

Looking at your Senatorial predictions, I see that you predict a Burns victory; predict a Santorum victory; predict a Kean victory; predict a Steele victory; and you predict that Allen will break 60 percent.

Maybe those don't "really go 100% against facts at hand" (and what a ringing endorsement that is!), but they certainly slip into the realm of the implausible, if not insane. Especially your daffy Maryland prediction.

[Conan]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

You are an idiot. I have never said anything unrealistic on this forum or uncalled for.

[Eraserhead]

Menendez but it could be really close...and he could lose if Kean opens a wider lead.

[MarkWarner08]

Menendez but it could be really close...and he could lose if Kean opens a wider lead.

Exactly ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

You are an idiot. I have never said anything unrealistic on this forum or uncalled for.

Saying that Bob Menendez and Jon Corzine are not corrupt or part of the Democratic machine, or that the scandal will not hurt him but Kean, Chris Christie is a partisan prosecutor (check his record), and that Menendez is still the favorite is just overly optimism, not reality.

[Kevin]

Oooh, Kean is distantly related to George Bush. So is John Kerry. Big deal.

Did you not read what I wrote before that? I said pretty much not that it matters really. I was just pointing out a interesting fact.

I'm wondering if conan really is Bob Menendez?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oooh, Kean is distantly related to George Bush. So is John Kerry. Big deal.

Did you not read what I wrote before that? I said pretty much not that it matters really. I was just pointing out a interesting fact.

I'm wondering if conan really is Bob Menendez?

It certainly sounds like it,
He also confuses things

NJ: Predicting Bob Menendez to win is not wrong, saying he is the favorite in NJ is wrong, b/c at the moment Tom Kean Jr. is the favorite

PA: Predicting Rick Santorum to win is not wrong, saying he is the favorite in PA is wrong, b/c at the moment Bob Casey is the favorite.

Look Conan, live in a bubble, but you fighting an uphill battle whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

[minionofmidas]

No, I'm actually quite realistic, obviously you missed a lot of my quotes about things like the MN and OH races and gas prices.

So you're not completely divorced from reality. Bravo.

No of the things I said really go 100% against facts at hand.

Looking at your Senatorial predictions, I see that you predict a Burns victory; predict a Santorum victory; predict a Kean victory; predict a Steele victory; and you predict that Allen will break 60 percent.

Maybe those don't "really go 100% against facts at hand" (and what a ringing endorsement that is!), but they certainly slip into the realm of the implausible, if not insane. Especially your daffy Maryland prediction.

Actually, the Allen prediction is the only completely unreasonable one. Of course, it depends when the prediction was last updated - until a while ago, it wouldn't have been completely unreasonable.

[Conan]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

You are an idiot. I have never said anything unrealistic on this forum or uncalled for.

Saying that Bob Menendez and Jon Corzine are not corrupt or part of the Democratic machine, or that the scandal will not hurt him but Kean, Chris Christie is a partisan prosecutor (check his record), and that Menendez is still the favorite is just overly optimism, not reality.

Read my posts. I have said Christie is partisan, not a partisan prosecutor although this suggests he is. I have said that this scandal can hurt Menendez but it could also hurt Kean backfiring. Jon Corzine isnt corrupt nor is he apart of the machine. He doesnt need to be, hes a very rich man and as you saw with the budget debate he can break from his party (the "machine") and stand for what he believes is right. This race is still tossup/leaning dem until a poll shows Kean with 47 and Menendez less then 41.  Then it would be lean Kean after a few more polls confirm that poll. However, the race is still dead heat but its NJ so it leans dem.

You can say I live in a "bubble" when in fact you do. And to quote Joe Lieberman, you do so "at your own peril."

[Smash255]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

1.  I never stated that Mendez would win by a larger margin than Corzine.  In fact I moved the race to tossup in my lateast senate map, though I think Menendez will still win by about 5 points.

Your a little kid and their are things you don't seem to grasp

NJ isn't going to go Republican just because you want it to...

Its a strong Democratic state, that absolutley despises Bush.  Menendez has his problems no question about it, but the fact the political makeup of the state is what it is, and the fact their is a strong anti Bush climate in the state makes it real hard for the GOP to pick up the seat.  When is the last time the President's party picked up a Senate Seat in a state where that President had approvals hovering around 30% in?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

1.  I never stated that Mendez would win by a larger margin than Corzine.  In fact I moved the race to tossup in my lateast senate map, though I think Menendez will still win by about 5 points.

Your a little kid and their are things you don't seem to grasp

NJ isn't going to go Republican just because you want it to...

Its a strong Democratic state, that absolutley despises Bush.  Menendez has his problems no question about it, but the fact the political makeup of the state is what it is, and the fact their is a strong anti Bush climate in the state makes it real hard for the GOP to pick up the seat.  When is the last time the President's party picked up a Senate Seat in a state where that President had approvals hovering around 30% in?

Maybe you'll get it when you get your head out of the sand and realize the race has nothing to do w/Bush

[Eraserhead]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

1.  I never stated that Mendez would win by a larger margin than Corzine.  In fact I moved the race to tossup in my lateast senate map, though I think Menendez will still win by about 5 points.

Your a little kid and their are things you don't seem to grasp

NJ isn't going to go Republican just because you want it to...

Its a strong Democratic state, that absolutley despises Bush.  Menendez has his problems no question about it, but the fact the political makeup of the state is what it is, and the fact their is a strong anti Bush climate in the state makes it real hard for the GOP to pick up the seat.  When is the last time the President's party picked up a Senate Seat in a state where that President had approvals hovering around 30% in?

Maybe you'll get it when you get your head out of the sand and realize the race has nothing to do w/Bush

Every U.S. Senate race has something to do with Bush. If it wasn't for Bush/Iraq Kean could quite possibly win the thing in a walk.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I watched ads from both for the first time today.

Kean made a mistake having McCain in his ad. Even though McCain is far more popular than Bush, he's still a national Republican, and this is New Jersey. Associating with someone as conservative as McCain and bringing attention to the national Republican party is not a smart thing to do in NJ.

Menendez's ad was pretty good, especially when he concludes by saying "My opponent supports Bush's war, I could not disagree more"

[Smash255]

Conan, you are a pretty entertaining guy. I never knew blatant hackishm could be so fun to watch.

Conan and Smash are as much hackish as they are delusional, there is no way if Menendez wins he wins by a bigger margin than Corzine.

1.  I never stated that Mendez would win by a larger margin than Corzine.  In fact I moved the race to tossup in my lateast senate map, though I think Menendez will still win by about 5 points.

Your a little kid and their are things you don't seem to grasp

NJ isn't going to go Republican just because you want it to...

Its a strong Democratic state, that absolutley despises Bush.  Menendez has his problems no question about it, but the fact the political makeup of the state is what it is, and the fact their is a strong anti Bush climate in the state makes it real hard for the GOP to pick up the seat.  When is the last time the President's party picked up a Senate Seat in a state where that President had approvals hovering around 30% in?

Maybe you'll get it when you get your head out of the sand and realize the race has nothing to do w/Bush

You have to get your head out of the sand and realize that the voters of the state aren't as dumb as you think they are.  They know electing a Republican = more power for Bush.  And the Dems will make sure they remind the voters about this time and time againn.  Bottom line their is a reason an unpopular President's party doesn't do well in midterms when that President isn't liked, and that is going to ring very true again this year, especially in a Democratic state like New Jersey where his numbers are even more pathetic than his already pathetic National numbers.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I watched ads from both for the first time today.

Kean made a mistake having McCain in his ad. Even though McCain is far more popular than Bush, he's still a national Republican, and this is New Jersey. Associating with someone as conservative as McCain and bringing attention to the national Republican party is not a smart thing to do in NJ.

Menendez's ad was pretty good, especially when he concludes by saying "My opponent supports Bush's war, I could not disagree more"

McCain is actually quite popular in NJ.  Anyone have the poll link, but I know when Rasmussen did it it was something like 60 or 65% approval.