On the Record: NJ

[MarkWarner08]

Here we go again... it looks like Rob Andrews is angling for the Dem Senate nomination if Menendez goes the way of "the Torch."

This is the insider report from politicalwire.com:

"Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who was riding an Amtrak train late last week to New Jersey, was overheard talking on his cell phone "about a scandal breaking that very evening implicating" Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), according to Roll Call.

The source on the train said Andrews discussed "the prospect of Democrats having to replace Menendez on the ballot with another Senate nominee." (Political Wire readers will remember Andrews wanted the appointment to replace Jon Corzine but Menendez got the nod instead.) The informant heard Andrews say, "A 60-day campaign is doable; a 30-day campaign is death."

However, a second source on the train "confirmed that quote but said it had nothing to do with a possible replacement on the ballot. He said it had to do with the timing of the Menendez scandal and whether it would be easier to deal with 30 or 60 days from Election Day."

Both sources confirmed Andrews said, "He's no Forrester," implying that Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is a much more formidable candidate than former GOP Senate nominee Doug Forrester (R)."

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here we go again... it looks like Rob Andrews is angling for the Dem Senate nomination if Menendez goes the way of "the Torch."

This is the insider report from politicalwire.com:

"Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who was riding an Amtrak train late last week to New Jersey, was overheard talking on his cell phone "about a scandal breaking that very evening implicating" Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), according to Roll Call.

The source on the train said Andrews discussed "the prospect of Democrats having to replace Menendez on the ballot with another Senate nominee." (Political Wire readers will remember Andrews wanted the appointment to replace Jon Corzine but Menendez got the nod instead.) The informant heard Andrews say, "A 60-day campaign is doable; a 30-day campaign is death."

However, a second source on the train "confirmed that quote but said it had nothing to do with a possible replacement on the ballot. He said it had to do with the timing of the Menendez scandal and whether it would be easier to deal with 30 or 60 days from Election Day."

Both sources confirmed Andrews said, "He's no Forrester," implying that Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is a much more formidable candidate than former GOP Senate nominee Doug Forrester (R)."

Shhh..., don't tell Conan, he's still living in the "Menendez is going to win by a sizeable margin w/virtually no challenge" bubble

[Smash255]

Again, one thing that is going to make this tough for Kean Jr is Bush.  With Bush's #'s as poor as they are in NJ, Kean is going to need to pick up about 33-36% of the vote in the anti-Bush crowd.  That is simply not going to be an easy thing to do.  If the state was less Democratic, and Bush was more popular in the state I would say this seat is Kean's.  But its just going to be real tough for him to pick up that large % of the vote of the people who don't like the President.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kean has done a hell of a lot better than I thought... actually Menendez has done worse than I thought.

I think this will go down to the wire - I'm giving it to Menendez by an incredibly small margin (as of now - Kean needs to have across the board leads and very small undecideds for me to be comfortable)

As for PA Santorum will lose - he's closed up and Casey's bad performance in the debate didn't help his cause. So what might have been a 10%+ win for Casey should be 4-6%.

[opebo]

Menendez.

[Conan]

Here we go again... it looks like Rob Andrews is angling for the Dem Senate nomination if Menendez goes the way of "the Torch."

This is the insider report from politicalwire.com:

"Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who was riding an Amtrak train late last week to New Jersey, was overheard talking on his cell phone "about a scandal breaking that very evening implicating" Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), according to Roll Call.

The source on the train said Andrews discussed "the prospect of Democrats having to replace Menendez on the ballot with another Senate nominee." (Political Wire readers will remember Andrews wanted the appointment to replace Jon Corzine but Menendez got the nod instead.) The informant heard Andrews say, "A 60-day campaign is doable; a 30-day campaign is death."

However, a second source on the train "confirmed that quote but said it had nothing to do with a possible replacement on the ballot. He said it had to do with the timing of the Menendez scandal and whether it would be easier to deal with 30 or 60 days from Election Day."

Both sources confirmed Andrews said, "He's no Forrester," implying that Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is a much more formidable candidate than former GOP Senate nominee Doug Forrester (R)."

Shhh..., don't tell Conan, he's still living in the "Menendez is going to win by a sizeable margin w/virtually no challenge" bubble

Again. I have never said with no challenge. He will win though with 50+ to Keans 47-48. I am the realist here, not you.

[MAS117]

Menendez - 53%
Junior - 45%
Other - 2%

Subject to change.

[Eraserhead]

Menendez - 53%
Junior - 45%
Other - 2%

Subject to change.

Are you on acid?? ?? I can respect you saying Menendez will win, but in a blowout like that???

In his defense, it is very possible. Kean could win by that much too though. 53-45 isn't exactly a blow out. More like a decisive victory.

[WMS]

I knew we had to have a replacement for PA-13.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone catch Chris Cristie swipe at Corzine, talking about how the AG he picked came right from Christie's office

Anyone notice how Corzine said Cristie was doing a good job and only questioned the timing, not the substance, of his prosecution

[Verily]

Menendez - 53%
Junior - 45%
Other - 2%

Subject to change.

Are you on acid?? ?? I can respect you saying Menendez will win, but in a blowout like that???

In his defense, it is very possible. Kean could win by that much too though. 53-45 isn't exactly a blow out. More like a decisive victory.

In his defense, he was only one point off on the margin

[Deano963]

Menendez - 53%
Junior - 45%
Other - 2%

Subject to change.

Are you on acid?? ?? I can respect you saying Menendez will win, but in a blowout like that???

In his defense, it is very possible. Kean could win by that much too though. 53-45 isn't exactly a blow out. More like a decisive victory.

In his defense, he was only one point off on the margin

Actually, he nailed it:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/NJ/S/01/index.html

Very impressive prediction.

I'm glad this thread was ressurrected. It's a veritable treasure trove of priceless Down quotes.

[MAS117]

Thank you all.

[Keystone Phil]

That is a bit unfair to show MAS' prediction and think it is worth something. Note the "subject to change" below the prediction. How many times did he change the margins around after that (serious question, by the way)?

[MAS117]

That is a bit unfair to show MAS' prediction and think it is worth something. Note the "subject to change" below the prediction. How many times did he change the margins around after that (serious question, by the way)?

At the time I made it, yes, it was Subject to Change because it was so far out. But in fact, I never did change my prediction regarding this race after that post. I stuck with these figures throughout the whole race.