Rasmussen: Cantwell(D) above 50% against McGavick(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-07

Summary: D: 52%, R: 35%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

It looks like McGavick is heading toward a thorough Nethercutting.  I think that Strategic Vision will show a closer race, but if McGavick has lost his personal appeal, he's probably toast.  I do not think he is the kind of candidate who can turn this kind of deficit around in the debates.

EDIT: This is a premium poll; you should not be posting it here, as it is unverifiable.

EDIT 2: For what it's worth, today's news cycle contains a very unfavourable story for Cantwell.  I doubt it will remain this lopsided.

[Eraserhead]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-07

Summary: D: 52%, R: 35%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Hmm didn't Ras. usually have this one really close? I guess we don't have to spend a huge amount of time worrying about this one any more although its still worth keeping an eye on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the last poll he took had Cantwell ahead by 11 pts, it was SV that had it unusally close.

[Eraserhead]

No, the last poll he took had Cantwell ahead by 11 pts, it was SV that had it unusally close.

Yeah but I'm pretty sure Ras. had it close for a while.

[Alcon]

Overton is incorrect.  Rasmussen's last poll was Cantwell +6.  Strategic Vision's was Cantwell +5.  Rasmussen and SV have been tracking pretty similarly.

[Sam Spade]

Washington is a state where the polls work normally.  If two polls say Cantwell is above 50% and leading by double digits, then she probably is.  This is the reason why I changed this race to Likely.

I did see the story in today's newswires, but we'll see if it has any effect come the next few polls.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Overton is incorrect. 

That sums it up quite well, please no one believe him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was looking at the last Ramussen poll in July. But the last Survey USA poll had it a big lead. I think Cantwell survives, but barely. The republicans thought in 2000, she would lose and she held on.

[Alcon]

I was looking at the last Ramussen poll in July. But the last Survey USA poll had it a big lead. I think Cantwell survives, but barely. The republicans thought in 2000, she would lose and she held on.

Why do you think it will get much closer?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Rasmussen is correct, it is a 5-6 pt race, just like in TN, Ford is more like 5-6 pts behind.

[Alcon]

I think Rasmussen is correct, it is a 5-6 pt race, just like in TN, Ford is more like 5-6 pts behind.

Why?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you take the average of Cantwell's polls and Corker's polls it equals 5-6 pts recently.

[Eraserhead]

If you take the average of Cantwell's polls and Corker's polls it equals 5-6 pts recently.

I'm pretty sure thats not true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SV 5 pts, Rasmussen 6 points, and SV 4 points. If you take all the polls except the last two, which can be thrown out due to the recent revelation of the story today it is 5-6 pts. It is true.

[Alcon]

SV 5 pts, Rasmussen 6 points, and SV 4 points. If you take all the polls except the last two, which can be thrown out due to the recent revelation of the story today it is 5-6 pts. It is true.

You really have no idea of what you are talking about.  Cantwell's story is nowhere near as bad as McGavick is.  How about you leave this race to someone actually from Washington?

[CultureKing]

SV 5 pts, Rasmussen 6 points, and SV 4 points. If you take all the polls except the last two, which can be thrown out due to the recent revelation of the story today it is 5-6 pts. It is true.

You really have no idea of what you are talking about.  Cantwell's story is nowhere near as bad as McGavick is.  How about you leave this race to someone actually from Washington?

I agreen with you Alcon... I have seen that ever since Cantwell started her media blitz she has been looking better and better in the polls (I remember coming home two days ago and having 5 messages... two from Cantwell campaigners and three from local, then turning on the TV immediatly appears a Cantwell ad, kinda freaky really)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was saying that Cantwell got a bounce from the dui revelation of the McGavick camp and with this revelation today it might stabalize that bounce that she got. That dui revelation was part of the reason why her poll numbers rising. Again, I didn't say it will derail her campaign, I said it may neutralize the dui charge of McGavick that she got her bounce from and the race might return back to a close race. And SV will come out with a poll at the end of this month, I think it will remain a close race. I think it will remain a close race which most of the pundits predict all the way through.

[Alcon]

I was saying that Cantwell got a bounce from the dui revelation of the McGavick camp and with this revelation today it might stabalize that bounce that she got. That dui revelation was part of the reason why her poll numbers rising. Again, I didn't say it will derail her campaign, I said it may neutralize the dui charge of McGavick that she got her bounce from and the race might return back to a close race. And SV will come out with a poll at the end of this month, I think it will remain a close race. I think it will remain a close race which most of the pundits predict all the way through.

It might reduce the bounce a bit, but when people hear anything involving transferring of money from some such to some other such, they tend to tune out.  I'm saying, when the dust clears, Cantwell will probably be up by somewhere between a Kerry margin and a Patty Murray margin, perhaps allowing for Green Aaron Dixon.

And saying that it will neutralise the DUI charge is also kind of ignorant.  The DUI charge wasn't the problem; the "lying" about the DUI charge was.  It wasn't even that, per se, but rather how absolutely lame being wrong about the DUI was.  A lot of fence voters sat, scratching their head, thinking "wasn't this guy supposed to be down-to-earth and a straight shooter?"  Despite the wrangling over whether one could actually forget a DUI arrest and think they were cited, it's kind of hard to believe his genuine, tortured public apology and how much it has affected his life when he never bothered to ask and remember whether he was arrested.

People are seeing echoes of George Nethercutt, here.  The last straw - to mix metaphors, the one that breaks the camel's back - will be a folksy, "I'm a good guy" ad in the vein of Nethercutt's "Bloopers."  That was the point at which the politically savvy said, "this guy must be seeing some really bloody internals," and the swing voters thought, "well, OK, you're a good guy who will change things in Washington.  Do we get to hear anything else?"  McGavick is, so far, probably even guiltier of running on personality than Nethercutt.  He risks becoming everybody's clueless dad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well so far SV have had it a 5-6 pt race, it will come out with a new poll at the end of this month and we will see what it comes out to. SV was close in the governors race, so I might lean more to the SV side of the equation.

[Alcon]

Well so far SV have had it a 5-6 pt race, it will come out with a new poll at the end of this month and we will see what it comes out to. SV was close in the governors race, so I might lean more to the SV side of the equation.

And SurveyUSA was more Republican -- much more.  Really, no pollster did well in 2004's Governor race.  You can't directly transfer the two.  If everything was as it was in 2004, SurveyUSA should be getting more Republican results...

Besides, isn't the Senate more relevant?  Granted, Strategic Vision was the best there.

And Mason-Dixon really did screw up Washington state races in 2004...Never noticed that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby agrees that it is more like a 6 or 7 pt race and he did well in predicting Patty Murray's and John Kerry's victory there. Eventhough he didn't do well in the Governor's race.

[Alcon]

Zogby agrees that it is more like a 6 or 7 pt race and he did well in predicting Patty Murphy's and John Kerry's victory there. Eventhough he didn't do well in the Governor's race.

Was this a Zogby Interactive poll, and when was it conducted?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Zogby polls were conducted on Aug 28. And it had Cantwell up by 7 or 8 pts. No, this isn't a Zogby poll but I put stock in the Zogby polls better than Rasmussen who has been all over the map all year long with its irregular polling.

[HardRCafé]

He risks becoming everybody's clueless dad.

Which in most states beats becoming everybody's cold, distant mom.

P.S.  Patty Murphy !?!