Rasmussen: Ford (D) in a dead heat with Corker (R)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-09-08

Summary: D: 44%, R: 45%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Nym90]

I'm quite surprised, but very pleasantly so. Maybe this is our best chance for that "sixth seat" after all rather than Virginia.

[Eraserhead]

I'm quite surprised, but very pleasantly so. Maybe this is our best chance for that "sixth seat" after all rather than Virginia.

Well thats hard to say since we haven't seen any polling on Virginia in a little while but this is good news...if Kean wins in NJ we would need this one and Virginia. Very unlikely but not impossible.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I would now say that both Tennessee and Virginia are good opportunities for the Democrats this November.  Both Allen and Corker are now clearly on the defensive and while its impossible to see them both losing, it would now seem more likely that one of them could. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Webb, I doubt it because Allen has a big money advantage. But Ford can, he has just as much money as Corker.

[Eraserhead]

Webb, I doubt it because Allen has a big money advantage. But Ford can, he has just as much money as Corker.

Well Webb has one big advantage: George Allen's mouth.

[© tweed]

It's certainly good news, although I doubt Ford has any real chance.  The RNC will have to dump a few million into the state so it's a minor victory regardless.

[Smash255]

Nice to see, but we shouldn't make too much out of just one poll.  race still clearly favors Corker, though its not impossible.  Would like to see the next couple polls on this race and if they shows similar results than we have a real decent pickup opportunity on our hands, but at this point one poll is just that one poll.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Webb, I doubt it because Allen has a big money advantage. But Ford can, he has just as much money as Corker.

A monetary advantage does not always translate into an electoral one.  In several states where one candidate has more money than the other, the financial underdog leads.  Claire McCaskill has managed to at least narrowly lead and break even with Jim Talent in Missouri, despite the fact that Talent has something like $19 million to her $6 million.  In Minnesota, I think Mark Kennedy has a small lead in his campaign treasury, but in the Minnesota Senate race, Amy Klobuchar has a big lead over him.  Money is not always an asset this year, particularly as Big Oil contributions are being so effectively used against Corker in this race.

I think that both Ford and Webb's chances are more or less equal.  Statewide, Virginia is easier for a Democrat to win in than Tennessee.  Ford's race and family scandals also cannot be yet discounted in this race if the campaign gets tough.  However, one advantage Ford has is running for an open seat against someone unkown to most voters.  His campaign can and has sought to define Corker to undecided voters, and he has shown shrewdness in fighting hard before the Republicans have.  If there are any, the Ford vs. Corker debates will be interesting and clearly another good platform for Ford to reach the voters.  Ultimately though, this race does still lean towards Corker given all the factors at work in Tennessee.  But Ford's campaign has been surprisingly successfull, and according to Rasmussen at least, he has made a significant impact thus far.  Given all the excitement over this new poll, this race is still to hard to predict.

In Virginia meanwhile, I think the Democrats are lucky to have Webb as a candidate.  His campaign can target Reagan Democrats in the state and he should win Northern Virginia.  Allen has successfully been put on the defensive due to the 'Maccacca' incident and I think now the DSCC's interest in this race has been reignited.  At this point, going on pure demographics, Virginia is a more likely Democratic pickup than Tennessee.  Although this is somewhat invalidated by the fact that open-seat races are easier to win for the opposition party.  Even if he does not win, Webb will clearly now get at least all the people who supported John Kerry and Al Gore, i.e. 45% of the vote.  Given the current political climate and the recent Democratic advances in Virginia, I think his threshold will be about 47% of the vote, assuming he does not win.  My prediction:

Allen (R) 52%
Webb (D) 47%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's one poll that McCaskill leads in the rest she trails in. As for Webb he isn't as well known to the voters as Claire does. When you aren't as well known, you need the cash advantage. Webb hadn't held any offices recently in VA, but Claire has.

[Smash255]

That's one poll that McCaskill leads in the rest she trails in. As for Webb he isn't as well known to the voters as Claire does. When you aren't as well known, you need the cash advantage. Webb hadn't held any offices recently in VA, but Claire has.

Thats not true.  Last four polls, four different pollsters,McCaskill leads in two, Talent leads in two

[Speed of Sound]

Until hes leading consistantly, my mouth stays shut on this race. Fords a good man, and I hate to see this race set him back, but this is like the Napolean Invasion of Moscow, and Ford isnt Russia.

[MarkWarner08]

Until hes leading consistantly, my mouth stays shut on this race. Fords a good man, and I hate to see this race set him back, but this is like the Napolean Invasion of Moscow, and Ford isnt Russia.

I hope Corker isn't the winter.

[True Democrat]

[Tender Branson]

Until hes leading consistantly, my mouth stays shut on this race. Fords a good man, and I hate to see this race set him back, but this is like the Napolean Invasion of Moscow, and Ford isnt Russia.

I hope Corker isn't the winter.

If Ford is like Napoleon, he'll have a problem, because Moscow was never occupied, while TN went Democratic from time to time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Talent's lead in the Gallup poll is above the margin of error so I believe the Gallup. And Talent's approval ratings have increased to 50% above the danger level for an incumbant.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Overton, I think you have are all too quick to believe everything you read and hear and immediately act upon it in making your predictions about elections.  You have to bear in mind that some polls are less reliable than others, that you can have bad samples and that internal polls are clearly biased in their candidate's favour.  This is not to be patronising, this is just something you pick up on the forum.

Gallup may be well known as a pollster, but it does get things wrong a lot of the time.  Before the 2004 election, it showed Kerry leading Bush in Ohio by 50%-46% and Bush leading Kerry in Pennsylvania by the same margin.  On this forum, it does not have the best reputation.  An instance of a badly sampled poll was the latest Survey USA poll which showed Jim Talent with a better approval rating than his far more popular and experienced colleague Kit Bond.  It just does not seem credible that a polarising Senator undergoing a tough re-election campaign can be ahead of a popular incumbent who won by a record margin in 2004 and generally takes the high road is more moderate.  Finally, I also believe you must remember that the tone of this year is completely different to 2002 and 2004, the most recent elections I remember and ones in which the GOP had unprecedented strength.  2006 clearly favours Democratic candidates across the board and I think a lot of people's fault at the moment is to forget or ignore that. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not strickly basing it off the Gallup polls I am also basing it on Rasmussen. Talent's numbers have steadily improved since Claire's illegal drug story was revealed.  Research 2000 also got some states wrong as well. I think Claire can still win but I think she is behind now.

[Joel the Attention Whore]

A recognition that Ford has been running a flawless campaign.  I expect Ford to soon take a small lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ford has as just as much of a chance as Steele does in MD which is less than 50%. We are making too much of this poll. I won't consider this race a toss up until Mason Dixon comes out with its polls.