US Jewish vote pretty much 100% demographic-driven at this point?

[King of Kensington]

Can the modern-day Democratic lean of US Jews at all be explained by "Jewish culture"? Or is it pretty much structural/demographic at this point?

My feeling is pretty close to yes, though there is probably some residue of the progressive legacy.  Orthodox Jews are obviously aligned with the right.  Among non-Orthodox, most are pretty secular in orientation, there's a very high level of educational attainment etc. - which makes Jews a pretty natural Democratic constituency in 2021.

A neo-conservative Jewish intellectual once stated that Jews earn like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans.  Since then the difference between Jewish and high-status WASP voters has narrowed - but that has more to do with the latter shifting away from the Republicans (many of the children and grandchildren of these WASP Republicans are likely Democrats now or at least "never Trump" Republicans).

Given that it's pretty much "demographically driven" - the Jewish vote is pretty inelastic and hopes from the right that Jews will finally shift en masse to the GOP over "support for Israel" strike me as absurd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The bulk of the Jewish vote behaves and acts in ways opposite to white evangelical Christians. They stake diametrically opposed stances on a number of issues.

[King of Kensington]

The majority of American Jews are nonaffiliated or identify with the Reform movement.

[Vosem]

I mean, no, right? There's plenty of evidence that specifically Jews trended differently from other whites in similar demographic strata in 2020:

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1394311907033632768

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I mean, no, right? There's plenty of evidence that specifically Jews trended differently from other whites in similar demographic strata in 2020:

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1394311907033632768

“What happens if you condition on college education? As in, did college educated Jews also swing towards Trump?“

“College educated whites in general swung something like 7% toward Democrats. Most Jews have college degrees, so I imagine the math works out so that college educated Jews also swung toward Trump.”

[King of Kensington]

Was there a swing to Trump in Scarsdale? 

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'm not really sure that it makes much sense to disentangle "Jewish culture" from their demographic profile considering the fact that Reform-based Jewish culture has oriented towards professional class ethics and habits for around a century or longer. The professional class overwhelmingly reorienting towards the Democratic Party might be a more recent phenomena, but American Jews have been linking the two value sets together for decades.

[Torie]

Was there a swing to Trump in Scarsdale? 

It swung to Biden vis a vis Clinton, but it appears less than its elite inner suburb high SES status would suggest would be the case. And one of the precincts actually swung to Trump 2020. It was still overwhelmingly Dem of course.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, that makes sense.  The professional class Jewish-liberal vote is pretty maxed out.   Scarsdale is probably around 40-50% Jewish, I think.  The other elite Westchester suburbs are less Jewish (though most still have sizeable Jewish populations), so there's more room for a D swing. 

[Wormless Gourd]

It's getting there.
For most secular or non-practicing Jews, like ones in super-educated suburbs, being strongly Democratic both in the 1970s and today works out just fine as the party orients itself more towards educated voters and educated voters overall get more liberal. Normal college white trends seem to dictate as religion and ethnicity fades in importance.

There's still a non-persuadable liberal bent for many Jewish people who aren't college-educated or would otherwise vote like comparable demographics, but it's declining. Generational turnover of secularish, silent gen, loyally Democratic Jews in favor of more religious, boomer or Gen X conservative Jews with a higher Republican floor is a trend that's still underway. Palm Beach county's declining margins are in part reflective of this, especially in the retirement communities.
It's not too different from the generational turnover in New Dealer rural white areas, though Jewish voters remain largely Democratic.

[Indy Texas]

It's getting there.
For most secular or non-practicing Jews, like ones in super-educated suburbs, being strongly Democratic both in the 1970s and today works out just fine as the party orients itself more towards educated voters and educated voters overall get more liberal. Normal college white trends seem to dictate as religion and ethnicity fades in importance.

There's still a non-persuadable liberal bent for many Jewish people who aren't college-educated or would otherwise vote like comparable demographics, but it's declining. Generational turnover of secularish, silent gen, loyally Democratic Jews in favor of more religious, boomer or Gen X conservative Jews with a higher Republican floor is a trend that's still underway. Palm Beach county's declining margins are in part reflective of this, especially in the retirement communities.
It's not too different from the generational turnover in New Dealer rural white areas, though Jewish voters remain largely Democratic.

Not to engage in stereotypes, but who even are these people?

Hasidim in the NYC area?

Extremely elderly first- and second-generation immigrants who came from hardscrabble Bernie Sanders-type upbringings in Brooklyn?

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

It's getting there.
For most secular or non-practicing Jews, like ones in super-educated suburbs, being strongly Democratic both in the 1970s and today works out just fine as the party orients itself more towards educated voters and educated voters overall get more liberal. Normal college white trends seem to dictate as religion and ethnicity fades in importance.

There's still a non-persuadable liberal bent for many Jewish people who aren't college-educated or would otherwise vote like comparable demographics, but it's declining. Generational turnover of secularish, silent gen, loyally Democratic Jews in favor of more religious, boomer or Gen X conservative Jews with a higher Republican floor is a trend that's still underway. Palm Beach county's declining margins are in part reflective of this, especially in the retirement communities.
It's not too different from the generational turnover in New Dealer rural white areas, though Jewish voters remain largely Democratic.

Not to engage in stereotypes, but who even are these people?

Hasidim in the NYC area?

Extremely elderly first- and second-generation immigrants who came from hardscrabble Bernie Sanders-type upbringings in Brooklyn?

There’s still second and third generation working class non-college Jews who are secular. I’ve known some of them. Some are centrist Biden Democrats and others are Bernie types and even if they tend to have criticisms (from different directions) of the modern day Democratic Party they still loath Republicans.

[King of Kensington]

There's quite a difference by state. 

AP Votecast Survey (Biden vs. Trump):

Massachusetts  86-13
California  82-17
Maryland  78-21
Illinois  75-22
Pennsylvania  72-27
New Jersey  72-27
New York  58-42
Florida  56-43

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412851.0

NY has a lot of Orthodox, traditional and immigrant Jews obviously.  Illinois and Pennsylvania look pretty typical of Jewry outside the NYC area.  New England and the West Coast are most secular parts of the country and that's likely true of Jews as well.  There's probably some demographic sorting in Florida. 

[King of Kensington]

There's a certain Jewish demographic that's very business-minded, not liberal or particularly intellectual (even if college-educated).  Often very pro-Israel and visibly "ethnic" and come from sort of hardscrabble and/or immigrant backgrounds.  I suspect they can be found in large numbers in Florida and Long Island and they avoid the culturally liberal affluent suburbs like those of Westchester.  Some "New Yawk-ish" cultural affinities with Trump.  Trump worked with many of these types and if anything they'd take "Jews make good businessmen" comments positively.

My guess is this group voted for Obama in 2008 because they were turned off by Sarah Palin, but voted for Romney because they deemed Obama "anti-business" and "anti-Israel."  

[King of Kensington]

A new Pew study on Jewish Americans suggests that the behavior is no longer a mystery: the bulk of the Jewish community remains liberal, but this allegiance no longer puts them out of step with the group’s demographics. The study found that “Jewish Americans, on average, are older, have higher levels of education, earn higher incomes, and are more geographically concentrated in the Northeast than Americans overall.” Accordingly, the study shows that secular Jews vote like other secular, highly educated, and urbanized populations. As Pew’s Becka Alper and Alan Cooperman wrote, “71 percent of Jewish adults (including 80 percent of Reform Jews) are Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party.”

Over the years, party affiliations have shifted: the Republican Party has become more working class, and the Democratic Party has acquired more urban, educated elites. Non-religious Jews fit neatly into the latter category. One can wonder whether Jews played an important role in this shift, or why Jews of past generations defied sociological expectations in remaining liberal, but today the issue is settled. Non-religious, secular Jews are a largely educated, northeastern population concentrated around large cities. Like other Americans in that category, they skew liberal.

https://www.city-journal.org/new-study-charts-political-shifts-among-american-jews

[Tekken_Guy]

It feels that a lot of culturally Israeli Jews, like my family, tend to actually favor Trump.

[Tintrlvr]

Was there a swing to Trump in Scarsdale? 

It swung to Biden vis a vis Clinton, but it appears less than its elite inner suburb high SES status would suggest would be the case. And one of the precincts actually swung to Trump 2020. It was still overwhelmingly Dem of course.

It's not surprising really that one of the wealthiest towns in the country that was already 70%+ Democratic wouldn't have much room to swing further towards the Democrats. Places that were more evenly split obviously had more room to swing.

Apropos of nothing, but my mother grew up in Scarsdale and remembers that in her childhood, her Jewish friends were not allowed to visit her at the Scarsdale Golf Club, where her family (WASPs) were members, and that didn't change until some time after she left Scarsdale for college.