Why was TX so close in 1960?

[Sir Mohamed]

TX was a Dem state in the 1960s and Kennedy's VP was literally the favorite son of that state, and one of the most well known senators at the time. Despite that, Kennedy just carried the state by 46k votes. Was there a particulary strong anti-catholicism movement in the 20th century in TX? Mainly among German settlers, I suppose? It was for sure the reason Al Smith lost TX, which swung hard to FDR in 1932 and beyond.

Actually doubt Kennedy's civil rights stances were much of a reason. Nixon supported civil rights as VP, too, as did Truman in 1948. And back then, TX was Truman's best state. Even did better than Johnson in 1948, although Truman won the exact same number of EVs than Kennedy (303)? Fair to say that Kennedy would have lost TX without Johnson, and I think it wouldn't have been very close.

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Hoover beat Al Smith just after Coolidge got crushed by Davis, so the Catholic bias was real.  Eisenhower won easily in both of his elections and by 1960 the wacky John Birch fanaticism was well established in the metros of the Southwest US by this point.  The Germans were the most Republican ethnic group in TX at any point and it really wasn't rooted in anti-Catholicsm.  As to how Kennedy overcame that when Al Smith couldn't, yes Johnson certainly helped, but, higher voting rates by South Texas Latinos really proved to be the biggest difference.  Wikipedia also credits a late campaign event in Dallas by Johnson and his wife were met by a right wing "mink coat" mob who knocked Ladybird's hat off her head.  Nixon said he lost TX because of that "asshole" Congressman (Bruce Alger) who led the mob.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas


I'd kind of like to see if there's video of that floating out there.

[DS0816]

TX was a Dem state in the 1960s and Kennedy's VP was literally the favorite son of that state, and one of the most well known senators at the time. Despite that, Kennedy just carried the state by 46k votes. Was there a particulary strong anti-catholicism movement in the 20th century in TX? Mainly among German settlers, I suppose? It was for sure the reason Al Smith lost TX, which swung hard to FDR in 1932 and beyond.

Actually doubt Kennedy's civil rights stances were much of a reason. Nixon supported civil rights as VP, too, as did Truman in 1948. And back then, TX was Truman's best state. Even did better than Johnson in 1948, although Truman won the exact same number of EVs than Kennedy (303)? Fair to say that Kennedy would have lost TX without Johnson, and I think it wouldn't have been very close.

With the exception of 1968 Republican presidential pickup winner Richard Nixon…Texas was carried by all U.S. presidential-election winners from 1928 to 1988.

John Kennedy’s 1960 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States barely got across the finish line. For a comparison, from the other of the two major U.S. political parties, look to 2000 Republican presidential pickup winner George W. Bush.

For Kennedy, it was Illinois. For Bush, it was Florida. Like 1928–1988 Texas, Illinois and Florida were also bellwether states from those respective periods.

[Chips]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

[E-Dawg]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

This. Nixon did very well in the state's urban areas. He won Dallas county by 25 points, Harris by 6 points, and Tarrant by 10 points. He lost Travis and Bexar counties but by less than 10 points. Eisenhower managed to turn Texas's urban areas Republican in the 1950s, and they mostly stuck by Nixon.

Also, Nixon actually improved greatly over Eisenhower 1956 in the panhandle/plains region in large part due to anti-Catholic sentiment. There were 18(!) Stevenson-Nixon counties in Texas (all but one in the plains region) despite the state itself voting the opposite way, and 38 additional counties where Nixon outperformed Eisenhower.  I don't know if there were other factors for the panhandle shift though. The panhandle region also swung wildly against Eisenhower in 1956 due to farm issues, so maybe these issues subsided by 1960? Since this area is so sparsely populated this shift probably did not help Nixon that much, I just find it to be very interesting how this region swung so strongly in the opposite direction of the state and nation in both 1956 and 1960.

[TDAS04]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

Nixon carried Dallas County by 25%.  Wow, Kennedy really got murdered in Dallas, didn't he.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

Nixon carried Dallas County by by 25%.  Wow, Kennedy really got murdered in Dallas, didn't he.

Here's a recommend.
Regards,
from a Dallasite

[Calthrina950]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

Nixon carried Dallas County by by 25%.  Wow, Kennedy really got murdered in Dallas, didn't he.

I recall reading that the main reason why Kennedy went to Dallas was to build up political support in Texas ahead of his anticipated reelection bid in 1964. Nevertheless, it also seems that Kennedy was contemplating dropping Johnson from the ticket before he was assassinated. Johnson truly was the main beneficiary of Kennedy's assassination-which is why conspiracy theorists over the years have accused him of being responsible for it.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Republican domination of the large metros, in part due to Northern transplants, was well underway, and racial tensions had begun eating away at Democratic strength in the Deep East since Truman's time. Much of the RGV was still disenfranchised (this bloc, once enabled by federal voting rights legislation, is much of what gave HHH his win in the state later that decade). Anti-Catholic sentiment and warming up to Eisenhower was less than in neighboring Oklahoma, which had an insane R swing from 56-60 even in heavily Dem areas, but still a factor.

[DINGO Joe]

Nixon did amazing in Dallas.

This. Nixon did very well in the state's urban areas. He won Dallas county by 25 points, Harris by 6 points, and Tarrant by 10 points. He lost Travis and Bexar counties but by less than 10 points. Eisenhower managed to turn Texas's urban areas Republican in the 1950s, and they mostly stuck by Nixon.

It should be noted that Hoover vs Smith won Dallas by 22, Harris by 11, Tarrant by 38!!!, won Travis by 4 and lost Bexar by less than 1.

[Alben Barkley]

Well, Hoover beat Al Smith just after Coolidge got crushed by Davis, so the Catholic bias was real.

And let's not forget that just four years later FDR would go on to crush Hoover in the biggest landslide in Texas history, winning every single county in the state, by 77 points. Even setting aside the fact that Hoover obviously did worse nationwide in 1932 than 1928, that's a MASSIVE swing that pretty clearly shows he ONLY won in 1928 because Smith was Catholic.

[E-Dawg]

Well, Hoover beat Al Smith just after Coolidge got crushed by Davis, so the Catholic bias was real.

And let's not forget that just four years later FDR would go on to crush Hoover in the biggest landslide in Texas history, winning every single county in the state, by 77 points. Even setting aside the fact that Hoover obviously did worse nationwide in 1932 than 1928, that's a MASSIVE swing that pretty clearly shows he ONLY won in 1928 because Smith was Catholic.

The anti Catholic sentiment was clearly massive in the plains region since Hoover did far better there than any Republican would until 2000 with the sole exceptions of 1972 and 1984. (And Hoover even won Cottle, which held out for freaking McGovern! And he also won a few counties which held out for Mondale)

[If my soul was made of stone]

Well, Hoover beat Al Smith just after Coolidge got crushed by Davis, so the Catholic bias was real.

And let's not forget that just four years later FDR would go on to crush Hoover in the biggest landslide in Texas history, winning every single county in the state, by 77 points. Even setting aside the fact that Hoover obviously did worse nationwide in 1932 than 1928, that's a MASSIVE swing that pretty clearly shows he ONLY won in 1928 because Smith was Catholic.

The anti Catholic sentiment was clearly massive in the plains region since Hoover did far better there than any Republican would until 2000 with the sole exceptions of 1972 and 1984. (And Hoover even won Cottle, which held out for freaking McGovern! And he also won a few counties which held out for Mondale)

Anti-Catholicism was the main issue sinking Smith in the South, but his opposition to Prohibition also incensed plenty of evangelicals and other social conservatives who might've been less hostile without it.