PA Statewide Referendum Primary Result vs. 2020 Result

[wbrocks67]

Thought it would be interesting to compare the PA statewide primary referendum from last Tuesday to the 2020 result for a bunch of counties, since the question was basically pitted essentially as a GOP/Dem proxy battle. Now, of course turnout was wildly different from 2020 vs 2021, but interesting to look at the #s in terms of who is turning out and who was energized to vote in an off year. Surprisingly, a lot of counties actually voted pretty close to their 2020 result. What was interesting though is that some actually voted WAY more Dem or more Rep than their 2020 result.

Also, "no" was the "Dem" proxy and "yes" was the Rep proxy

In places like Allegheny and Erie, it was eerily close to the 2020 result. While in Philly, No did way worse than Biden, or in Lancaster, way more Rs clearly turned out than Dems this time around.

Centre may have had more college kids around this time too (Penn State area)

Chester and Delaware clearly had lower turnout among Dems/some moderate Rs voted 'yes' as well. Montgomery was better on that front - and almost most surprisingly, Bucks had a very good turnout for Dems.

Dauphin may have surprised me most though. Terrible result for Dems there.

Allegheny
Biden +20, No +18, No +20

Erie
Biden +1, No +1, No +1

Centre
Biden +5, No +9, No +7

Dauphin
Biden +9, Yes +2, Yes +2

Lancaster
Trump +16, Yes +44, Yes +45

Chester
Biden +17, No +9, No +7

Delaware
Biden +27, No +12, No +14

Philly
Biden +63, No +36, No +43

Montgomery
Biden +26, No +21, No +20

Bucks
Biden +4, No +2, No +2

Lehigh
Biden +8, No +6, No +7

Northampton
Biden +1, No +2.5, No +2

Monroe
Biden +6, No +1, No +1

Lackawanna
Biden +8, No +10, No +12

Luzerne
Trump +15, Yes +11, Yes +8

[Lambsbread]

Not surprised at those Lancaster County results. The Dems did a terrible job messaging on the ballot questions out here. Saw practically nothing for it that I didn't actively seek out. Yet I couldn't drive more than 5 minutes without seeing an "END THIS MESS, VOTE YES/YES/YES" sign.

[wbrocks67]

Not surprised at those Lancaster County results. The Dems did a terrible job messaging on the ballot questions out here. Saw practically nothing for it that I didn't actively seek out. Yet I couldn't drive more than 5 minutes without seeing an "END THIS MESS, VOTE YES/YES/YES" sign.

Yeah, the Lancaster result was so jarring I thought it was a mistake. It appears even the Dems that did come out even voted YES.

PA Dems did not market this well, unless you were following Governor Wolf's page or a PA Dems-related page, there wasn't a great campaign to make sure you voted No.

That's why I'm honestly shocked Luzerne was even less than Trump's #. There's old DINOs there still, but it's also quite possible that is one place where Trump - and only Trump - fueled turnout, and it could recede a bit without him in the picture.

Dauphin/Harrisburg is confusing, b/c there was also a Dem primary in Harrisburg for mayor I believe, so not sure if it's just the capital of the state having backlash to the governor or something?

Pleasantly surprised at a place like Erie as well, with Dems holding the line there.

[Chips]

Interesting results.

[Wormless Gourd]

Did the Amish turn out in Lancaster or something? That's an insane one-off result. I can imagine the covid restrictions would offend every part of their lifestyle.

[compucomp]

Philly
Biden +63, No +36, No +43

I think this is the key to these referendums succeeding. A 20 point swing in Philadelphia alone would turn PA into something like FL. If there is really this kind of change in political preferences then Dems are in deep trouble in PA, but I would write this one off as the result of low turnout and working class minorities who blame the state government's pandemic policies as having cost them their jobs/livelihood.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn’t extrapolate too much from such a low turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Philly
Biden +63, No +36, No +43

I think this is the key to these referendums succeeding. A 20 point swing in Philadelphia alone would turn PA into something like FL. If there is really this kind of change in political preferences then Dems are in deep trouble in PA, but I would write this one off as the result of low turnout and working class minorities who blame the state government's pandemic policies as having cost them their jobs/livelihood.

There were also quite a few Republicans who changed their party preference for this primary to vote against Krasner as well.

[Flyersfan232]

Some businesses owners in Chester who were Biden voters voted yes

[Skill and Chance]

Some businesses owners in Chester who were Biden voters voted yes

Also, you can see a significant number of culturally conservative COVID hawks out there in Scranton and the rurals (IMO a very underrated part of why Biden won and why, e.g. Appalachia didn't get any worse for him).

The biggest surprise to me is Centre, which is dominated by the largest college in the state being more pro-lockdown than pro-Biden?!   

[Skill and Chance]

Philly
Biden +63, No +36, No +43

I think this is the key to these referendums succeeding. A 20 point swing in Philadelphia alone would turn PA into something like FL. If there is really this kind of change in political preferences then Dems are in deep trouble in PA, but I would write this one off as the result of low turnout and working class minorities who blame the state government's pandemic policies as having cost them their jobs/livelihood.

Extrapolating nationally, this is how Republicans win the presidential PV in the modern era.  I don't think we're there yet in explicitly partisan elections though. 

[wbrocks67]

Some businesses owners in Chester who were Biden voters voted yes

Also, you can see a significant number of culturally conservative COVID hawks out there in Scranton and the rurals (IMO a very underrated part of why Biden won and why, e.g. Appalachia didn't get any worse for him).

The biggest surprise to me is Centre, which is dominated by the largest college in the state being more pro-lockdown than pro-Biden?!   

It may say more about Centre's 2020 result IMO. College kids were allover the place last year, so I think Biden's margin was actually lower in Centre than it would've been normally.

[wbrocks67]

I also found it interesting to look at my home township - Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County. Montgomery County has gotten blue, and my township is a pretty good bellwether of where the county has gone. It's pretty moderate, but has been electing Ds more and more. There's actually still more registered Republicans here than Democrats, but it's basically the entire suburban story, of many RINOs now voting Democrat every election.

I was wondering how the yes and no question would go down here. Interestingly enough, even with the lower turnout, it was No +18, 59-41, which is the same exact result that Biden got here last year (59-41).

IMO, not a huge datapoint, but one that might go towards the whole notion of the suburbs staying with Biden, but also the college educated vote/white college+/suburban vote staying with Dems, and GOP not really making a great tradeoff here with them.