Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

long-dead old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316425.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-labor-boss-to-ask-jodi-mckay-to-stand-down-as-party-leader-20210524-p57uq5.html

NSW Labor Leader Jodi McKay is being encouraged to stand down following the party’s disastrous result in the weekend’s byelection but no clear candidate has been identified to replace her.

Senior NSW Labor figures say a deal has been struck that would see the party’s general secretary Bob Nanva ask Ms McKay to step aside.

Party and union figures close to the negotiations say there is a desire for Ms McKay to step aside to avoid a protracted internal voting process to secure a new Labor leader.

After a poor result in the Upper Hunter by-election (in spite of the former Coalition MP resigning under a cloud of very serious rape allegations) the knives are our for NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay. While the result was poor Labor horrifically mismanaged expectations to the point where anything but a win would lead to leadership change. If successful NSW Labor will have gone 5 consecutive Parliaments with a change of leadership midterm.

Both contenders to replace her (Chris Minns and Ryan Park) are members of the NSW Right so there's no chance of actual transformative change within the party, just more of the same from the faceless men of sussex street.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I failto see why the media is pushing this narrative about how Upper Hunter is a "TOTAL DISASTER FOR LABOR!!!!!" when it's a seat the Nats have held since 1910.

I suspect the faceless men inside the ALP have been pushing this ridiculous narrative to the media to help their crusade against Jodi. This is the NSW Right after all.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jodi McKay looks to have barely hung on as NSW Labor leader, with her opponents falling just short. Their main impediment is they keep pushing Chris Minns who is even more unpopular with members than Jodi.
A shocking display of incompetence from the faceless men, who blew up this by election and still messed up toppling the leader.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Shadow Treasurer has resigned, so it’s very clear that Jodi hang on by promising someone the Treasury for their support (Michael Daley perhaps). And someone from the Deputy Leader’s office leaked to the press a smear on her rivals titled “ Why Chris Minns and Jamie Clements Can Never Run The NSW Labor Party”. Not exactly subtle.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jodi McKay to give a press conference in 30 minutes, expected to announce her resignation as leader. Chris Minns expected to replace her unopposed.

Edit: And she’s gone, with an emotional but disingenuous speech insisting she still had the support of the party room.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Callbacks to Wayne Goss's baseball quote still going strong among the punditry. Very unsurprising that braindead thugs like Peta Credlin inevitably turn it into active threats of violence, either through idiocy or malice.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Daley has pulled out, making Chris Minns the next NSW Labor leader. His main problem is he represents the most marginal Labor seat, and the redistribution is likely to flip it to notionally Liberal. If he doesn't take the PR hit and move seats that will make campaigning very difficult for him, as it did for Howard in '07 and Newman in '15.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile in Victorian state politics the Liberals latest ploy to win votes is spreading baseless conspiracy theories about Dan Andrews' back injury and how it's actually linked to multimillionaire trucking tycoon Lindsay Fox. The Shadow Treasurer, awfully confident for someone sitting on a 0.02% majority, has decided to hound the Premier and demand answers to her conspiracy theories while wearing a poncho that made her look like an amputee.

Who was in the house at the time of the incident?
What is the address of the house where it occurred?
Who owns the property?
What time was an ambulance called?
Who called the ambulance?
What time did the ambulance arrive?
Which ambulance station was the ambulance dispatched from?
Who made the decision to take the Premier to Peninsula Private?
Were the police contacted?
Did the police attend?
Has Daniel Andrews been interviewed either formally or informally by the police in relation to anything that occurred over that long weekend?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-15/david-o-byrne-takes-labor-leadership-tasmania/100217724

David O'Byrne has won the Tasmanian ALP leadership in a landslide, beating Shane Broad 74% to 26%. O'Byrne is very much the same old Tassie Labor Lefty, an ex-secretary of the Missos with very close ties to fellow union powerbrokers and faceless men. Meanwhile Broad is a moderate reformist and prominent critic of the entrenched left faction within the party, and had burned many bridges with fellow members due to his public criticisms.
Last election Labor lost all but one polling booth in the entire north of the state, a truly shocking performance. And as long as the Liberals can keep that performance they have a solid grip on government even if their vote plummets in Hobart.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Financial Review reports that Joyce is planning another challenge against McCormack, allegedly set to go off on Monday. The trigger is ScoMo's perceived endorsement of Net Zero emissions by 2050 at the G7, a policy Nationals cannot abide. McCormack's standard weak performance as Acting PM didn't help him either, as he melted under the pressure from the opposition as he always does. This would be yet another coup right in the killing season, the last week of sitting in June before the long winter recess. This very week was when both Rudd and Gillard were toppled.

www.afr.com/politics/federal/joyce-prepares-to-move-on-mccormack-20210619-p582f5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Financial Review reports that Joyce is planning another challenge against McCormack, allegedly set to go off on Monday. The trigger is ScoMo's perceived endorsement of Net Zero emissions by 2050 at the G7, a policy Nationals cannot abide. McCormack's standard weak performance as Acting PM didn't help him either, as he melted under the pressure from the opposition as he always does. This would be yet another coup right in the killing season, the last week of sitting in June before the long winter recess. This very week was when both Rudd and Gillard were toppled.

www.afr.com/politics/federal/joyce-prepares-to-move-on-mccormack-20210619-p582f5

Why are the Nationals so against any form of climate legislation? The rural communities are already getting hit hard by extreme heatwaves and teprestures that go above 50.

Australia’s rural agricultural population has tanked over the last century, and the Nats faced political extinction because of it. So they have grown their base by flipping rural Mining communities like Mt Isa, Broken Hill and Kalgoorlie which were historically Labor heartlands. This process has been a massive success which has rejuvenated the future of the National party, ensuring their continued survival and influence within the Coalition.

The downside of this is while the Nationals can still dominate agricultural regions with Countrymindedness, localism and social conservatism, to win over old Labor mining towns they must fully embrace the mining sector and anti-climate policies to protect it and it’s workers. This has alienated a small share of their base, not so much farmers but small town businessmen and workers with more enlightened politics and world views.

You shouldn’t think this is alien to country voters. Farmers are also quite anti-environmentalist, such as supporting continued land clearing for farmland and opposing endangered species protections that impact their farmland. While Farmers may not be rabidly anti-climate action they are not environmentalists either. Rather, it is the country town business owners, employees providers and retirees who are alienated.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The media are now all reporting Barnaby has won back the leadership per sources, with the official announcement expected imminently.

Edit: Damian Drum makes it official. And this means Barnaby will be Acting PM for Question Time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC has announced the final boundaries for the Victorian Federal Redistribution. Along with the usual minor changes they have made two major changes;
Firstly, they have reverted the proposed Division of Tucker's name back to the current Corangamite after many submissions opposing the change, noting how Corangamite is a Federal division and an Aboriginal name while Margaret Tucker was not local to the region (being Yorta Yorta from the Murray valley) and also noting that the name can easily be changed to F#cker with graffiti.
Secondly, they have reverted the proposed changes to the boundary between Macnamara and Higgins, returning Caulfield to Macnamara and South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor to Higgins. The proposed changes were incredibly unpopular with the large Jewish community, and the reversion is unsurprising. This significantly helps the Labor position in Macnamara where they were at risk of falling behind the Greens on the draft borders while slightly strengthening the Greens position in Higgins. Overall this change helps Labor in Macnamara while helping the Greens in Higgins.

And tomorrow the VEC will be releasing their draft report for the Victorian State Redistribution, which will have major changes and is eagerly awaited by both parties.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC has announced the final boundaries for the Victorian Federal Redistribution. Along with the usual minor changes they have made two major changes;
Firstly, they have reverted the proposed Division of Tucker's name back to the current Corangamite after many submissions opposing the change, noting how Corangamite is a Federal division and an Aboriginal name while Margaret Tucker was not local to the region (being Yorta Yorta from the Murray valley) and also noting that the name can easily be changed to F#cker with graffiti.
Secondly, they have reverted the proposed changes to the boundary between Macnamara and Higgins, returning Caulfield to Macnamara and South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor to Higgins. The proposed changes were incredibly unpopular with the large Jewish community, and the reversion is unsurprising. This significantly helps the Labor position in Macnamara where they were at risk of falling behind the Greens on the draft borders while slightly strengthening the Greens position in Higgins. Overall this change helps Labor in Macnamara while helping the Greens in Higgins.

And tomorrow the VEC will be releasing their draft report for the Victorian State Redistribution, which will have major changes and is eagerly awaited by both parties.

Why did they suggest the changes to the border between Macnamara and Higgins to begin with?

Red Lines are the existing Division boundaries, Blue Lines were the Draft Redistribution proposals.

As you can see from the map, the existing boundary isn't that compact, while Williams Road is a nice straight main road that looks very nice on paper, which always appeal to redistribution panels. But while it looks nice on paper, the current boundary makes much more sense on the ground. Caulfield and St Kilda both have large Jewish populations and are very closely linked, while South Yarra & Prahran are more integrated with the rest of Stonnington to their east. The current boundary follows Dandenong Road which is a major artery and a very strong boundary.
The changes where very strongly opposed by many submissions to the AEC, so they've reverted back to the original boundaries, and to make up population they've moved Windsor into Higgins which is good on the ground and unites the entire Stonnington council within one Division.

In case you're interested in the full announcement and the Commission's reasoning for their proposals and changes, here's a link to it:
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2021/vic/announce-names-boundaries.htm

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The draft Victorian state redistribution was released this morning. The sum of the changes is three seats are abolished across Melbourne's eastern & south eastern suburbs (Ferntree Gully, Keysborough & Mt Waverley), and three new seats are created in the booming outer suburbs (Pakenham on the southeastern fringe, Kalkallo in the sprawling northern fringe and Laverton in the western suburbs).

Tomorrow Antony Green will release calculations for the political consequences of the shakeup, however it's safe to say Labor will benefit from the new boundaries.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In breaking news, the ABC is reporting sexual harassment allegations against new Tassie Labor leader David O'Byrne. He's giving a statement in an hour. If true this may bring an abrupt end to his leadership and force another long and costly leadership vote.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In breaking news, the ABC is reporting sexual harassment allegations against new Tassie Labor leader David O'Byrne. He's giving a statement in an hour. If true this may bring an abrupt end to his leadership and force another long and costly leadership vote.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560

David O'Byrne has decided to "stand aside" as Opposition Leader while the allegations are investigated internally by the party. To be clear he's not actually resigning yet, but he may be forced to do so if the party can't sweep this under the rug.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In a shocking turn of events David O'Byrne has resigned as leader of the Tasmanian ALP after just 20 days in office. Without a doubt a new record for shortest term as leader, this shocking turn of events has put the Tassie ALP in turmoil and may even lead to a new leader from the Right.

abc.net.au/news/2021-07-04/david-o-byrne-resigns-as-labor-leader/100266864

[AustralianSwingVoter]

During the 2019 election, the Liberal government promoted a car park program, however chose to build the parks disproportionately in vulnerable Labor seats or seats that the Liberals feared they might lose. This may have boosted their electoral prospects: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/when-47-car-parks-660-million-and-one-election-collide-20210630-p585h9.html

Nothing especially unusual, this programme was standard pork barrelling we've come to expect from both parties in every election. Though it is notable how poorly managed Liberal pork barrelling was last election, with this and the sports grants saga both being far too brazen without any veneer of plausible deniability.

What's really hilarious is that in the end this programme did nothing to help us actually win re-election. This poured money into outer-suburban seats most of which were reasonably safe and many of which swung to Labor anyway. Did nothing to help us in Queensland or Tasmania where the election was actually won. So we wasted all this money on impossible car parks in reasonably safe seats for no electoral benefit and a lot of bad press.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And the Tasmanian ALP has made the farcical choice of again returning Bec White as leader. In spite of losing two elections in a row they clearly have no better alternative so she’s getting a third shot!

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/rebecca-white-re-elected-as-leader-of-tasmanian-labor-party/100272820

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Next weekend a by-election will be held in the Queensland state seat of Stretton after the popular local member died after a long battle with cancer. A safe Labor seat (outside the 2012 wipeout) Labor victory is assured and the only interest shall be the margin of victory and swing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor has won the Stretton by-election with a rather mediocre result for both sides. The current swing is 1.6% to the LNP after preferences. That's a poor performance for an opposition, especially against a third term government, however Labor would still be disappointed to suffer a swing against them.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Victorian Labor government has just intervened to kill an Inquiry into Cannabis legalisation, with Labor members flipping at the last minute to drastically water down the Inquiry's recommendations. Given the overwhelming public opposition to Cannabis Legalisation this is a surprise to no one, the only shock being it took them this long to kill it.

www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-government-quashes-push-to-legalise-cannabis-in-victoria-20210804-p58fq1.html

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Victorian Labor government has just intervened to kill an Inquiry into Cannabis legalisation, with Labor members flipping at the last minute to drastically water down the Inquiry's recommendations. Given the overwhelming public opposition to Cannabis Legalisation this is a surprise to no one, the only shock being it took them this long to kill it.

www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-government-quashes-push-to-legalise-cannabis-in-victoria-20210804-p58fq1.html

I find it interesting that cannabis legalization has remained so unpopular in Australia and New Zealand even as it's become an uncontroversial majority opinion in Canada and the United States -- can you say more about this?

Canada and the United States are definitely the exception rather than the rule. There does seem to be a strong divide between the Americas and the Old World on Drug Policy, what is increasingly universally popular in North America is still political anathema in Europe and Asia.