Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/OceaniaElects/status/1649190072313602048https://twitter.com/ChristyDanFan/status/1649160223255592966

[JimJamUK]

The massive fluctuations in the subsamples suggest they are not to be taken too seriously.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Double Majority might be tricky for the Voice Referendum.

VIC and NSW should be fine for Supporting the proposal. They will give you the individual majority.

Looks like QLD and WA will most likely oppose it by the time it's voted on.

So it comes down to South Australia and Tasmania to get the proposal over the line.

I am surprised NT are not included in the group stage.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Senator Jacinta Price announces the "No To the Voice" campaign.

https://fb.watch/ka3i-5QPLl/

A lot of first nations people are not feeling Albanese's vibe.

[GoTfan]

Senator Jacinta Price announces the "No To the Voice" campaign.

https://fb.watch/ka3i-5QPLl/

A lot of first nations people are not feeling Albanese's vibe.

You are a liar.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/indigenous-support-for-voice-at-80pc-despite-protests-by-noisy-few-20230127-p5cfwj

Jacinta Price is just a grifter, same as Mundine. She wants to run for the HoR in 2025 and sucking up to Dutton is the best chance she has of getting preselected, while Mundine is afraid his gravy train will be cut off.

I reiterate, Meclazine, you are a liar.

[JimJamUK]

Senator Jacinta Price announces the "No To the Voice" campaign.

https://fb.watch/ka3i-5QPLl/

A lot of first nations people are not feeling Albanese's vibe.

You are a liar.

www.afr.com/politics/federal/indigenous-support-for-voice-at-80pc-despite-protests-by-noisy-few-20230127-p5cfwj

Jacinta Price is just a grifter, same as Mundine. She wants to run for the HoR in 2025 and sucking up to Dutton is the best chance she has of getting preselected, while Mundine is afraid his gravy train will be cut off.

I reiterate, Meclazine, you are a liar.

Declaring the Voice to Parliament unpopular with a lot of indigenous people based on a Jacinta Price video is not methodologically sound, but I’m not sure polling will be either. A large proportion of the indigenous population is not reachable by an internet panel (particularly those in remote communities), and that section could hold significant different opinions to those who do respond to polls. I seem to remember past internet polling found levels of support for the Greens more indicative of the inner city than a representative sample of indigenous people across Australia as a whole.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even so, are a lot of more "traditional" indigenous people really going to vote against?

Rather falls into the "will believe it when I see it" category for me.

[JimJamUK]

Even so, are a lot of more "traditional" indigenous people really going to vote against?

Rather falls into the "will believe it when I see it" category for me.

Well, part of the question is whether they will vote at all. Compulsory voting in practice doesn’t mean 100% turnout, as evidenced by the electorate of Lingiari (40% indigenous, very remote) having only 67% turnout of registered voters, and only 62% cast a valid vote. Nationwide it was 90% turnout and 85% casting valid votes.

But to answer your question directly, we just don’t know. I think they’ll probably be a bit less strongly in favour, but still clearly so in the event No isn’t winning in a landslide. But there’s arguments they could be a lot less in favour (rightward drift evident in 2022, crime wave, unpopular Territory Labor government etc), or even more in favour (feel they aren’t being listened to, will vote for anything that makes politicians take notices of their issues etc).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Victorian Liberals in chaos yet again... The Monica Deeming clusterfck continues to destabilise John Pesutto's leadership amidst legal threats, broken promises and poor minute taking.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Some Aboriginal pundits are using this period of discussion to raise other issues about first nations people.

For example, "Welcome to Country" is a white fella thing introduced to make the white fella's feel more connected with Aboriginal people. But some Aboriginal people don't want it and find it to be a token.

Aboriginal Voice in Perth

https://www.facebook.com/BuddyShillo/videos/1159617111310658

Most just want their own country. Bruce might be right. Although not as eloquent as Barack Obama, I must admit his point is certainly loud and clear.

Lore Enforcement Officer

https://www.facebook.com/BuddyShillo/videos/529812609127547

I think this guy is trying to set up his own Police Force for Aboriginal Lore.

[GoTfan]

Some Aboriginal pundits are using this period of discussion to raise other issues about first nations people.

For example, "Welcome to Country" is a white fella thing introduced to make the white fella's feel more connected with Aboriginal people. But some Aboriginal people don't want it and find it to be a token.

Aboriginal Voice in Perth

https://www.facebook.com/BuddyShillo/videos/1159617111310658

Most just want their own country. Bruce might be right. Although not as eloquent as Barack Obama, I must admit his point is certainly loud and clear.

Lore Enforcement Officer

https://www.facebook.com/BuddyShillo/videos/529812609127547

I think this guy is trying to set up his own Police Force for Aboriginal Lore.

Meclazine, just be honest and say that you don't like black people.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Robodebt architect Stuart Roberts is to resign from parliament after being dragged through the Royal Commission. His seat of Fadden covers the northern Gold Coast, the established suburbs around Helensvale and the growth corridor of Coomera-Pimpama. It's held on a 10.6% margin, still stuck at 10% in 2007 and by all accounts should be a secure hold at the by-election.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Jacinta Price has her "No Campaign" in full swing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/lachlan_kennedy/status/1655737972019564544?t=mgTZ8o19BHNqfIY...
What's going on here ?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lachlan_kennedy/status/1655737972019564544?t=mgTZ8o19BHNqfIY...
What's going on here ?

I assume this is cause Labour only won a minority in the election, and with the Greens its a 2-Seat majority.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor is trying dirty tricks to nominate a non-government member for upper house president (breaking a century long precedent). The coalition is countering this with dirty tricks to hold up the debate for as long as humanly possible. The Nationals are playing stupid tricks by somehow losing control of Ben Franklin so he could take the plum position.

This triggered a second Nationals spill btw. Paul Toole rolled by Dugald Saunders 10 to 5 over his inability to control the caucus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Key groups coalesce to strengthen their 'NO Campaign' in the upcoming Voice to Parliament Referendum.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-11/key-no-camps-merge-to-strengthen-referendum-campaign/102329478


Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Warren Mundine will join forces for the No campaign.(AAP: Mick Tsikas)

Don't believe this will affect the popular vote result, but the YES Campaign still needs to win 4 of six states to get something across the line.

The Referendum by State polls looks like this:

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

So the 'YES' campaign only needs South Australia or Western Australia to vote 'YES' as a majority to get across the line.

Probably likely YES to win at this stage.

[JimJamUK]

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

Tasmania has an Aboriginal population of 5.4% compared to only 3.2% nationally, so I’m not sure what you’re referring to there?

[Lord Halifax]

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

Tasmania has an Aboriginal population of 5.4% compared to only 3.2% nationally, so I’m not sure what you’re referring to there?

given that the island's own Aboriginal population was exterminated that's actually a bit odd, wonder why so many Aboriginals from elsewhere chose to move there? Seems like a bit of a backwater and has no large city.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

Tasmania has an Aboriginal population of 5.4% compared to only 3.2% nationally, so I’m not sure what you’re referring to there?

given that the island's own Aboriginal population was exterminated that's actually a bit odd, wonder why so many Aboriginals from elsewhere chose to move there? Seems like a bit of a backwater and has no large city.

It's pretty similar to Oklahoma's claimed native american population. In every other state there exists pretty strict rules for claiming aboriginality, but in Tasmania there culture and community was genocided. So many many white people who've been told their great great grandparent was half-aboriginal claim it on the census (a la Oklahoma). An excellent way of comparing this to other states is the tiny number of people who actually claim Indigenous services from the government.

The census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders is an overcount in general. There's a large number of people who claim it on their census forms without actually meeting the requirements to claim aboriginal services or be recognised as part of the community by elders.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

State politics news:

In Victoria far-right MLC Moira Deeming has been officially expelled after stupidly threatening to sue the leader and party, thus uniting nearly everyone against her. Party Secretary Renee Heath has also been sacked and demoted to the backbenches for her part in stoking this conflict.

In Tasmania, two Liberal MPs have left the party to the crossbench, depriving the government of majority. They’ve claimed it’s over concerns of lack of consultation for the new AFL stadium, along with opposition to the voice and a power interconnection with Victoria. It’s important to note that both MPs are from the conservative faction, staunch supporters of Ferguson in the leadership battle. So there’s gossip this is a play at forcing a leadership spill.

[GoTfan]

State politics news:

In Victoria far-right MLC Moira Deeming has been officially expelled after stupidly threatening to sue the leader and party, thus uniting nearly everyone against her. Party Secretary Renee Heath has also been sacked and demoted to the backbenches for her part in stoking this conflict.

In Tasmania, two Liberal MPs have left the party to the crossbench, depriving the government of majority. They’ve claimed it’s over concerns of lack of consultation for the new AFL stadium, along with opposition to the voice and a power interconnection with Victoria. It’s important to note that both MPs are from the conservative faction, staunch supporters of Ferguson in the leadership battle. So there’s gossip this is a play at forcing a leadership spill.

I can hear the champagne corks popping in the ALP party room.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

State politics news:

In Victoria far-right MLC Moira Deeming has been officially expelled after stupidly threatening to sue the leader and party, thus uniting nearly everyone against her. Party Secretary Renee Heath has also been sacked and demoted to the backbenches for her part in stoking this conflict.

In Tasmania, two Liberal MPs have left the party to the crossbench, depriving the government of majority. They’ve claimed it’s over concerns of lack of consultation for the new AFL stadium, along with opposition to the voice and a power interconnection with Victoria. It’s important to note that both MPs are from the conservative faction, staunch supporters of Ferguson in the leadership battle. So there’s gossip this is a play at forcing a leadership spill.

I can hear the champagne corks popping in the ALP party room.

In Tasmania? They can’t get too far ahead of themselves, they’ve still been polling sub 30% and their factional disputes remain unresolved.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/missrobinson/status/1657187377029185537