Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[Cassius]

author=AustralianSwingVoter link=topic=446578.msg9025378#msg9025378 date=1680340577 uid=16107]
For the first time in 100 years the government will gain a by-election seat from the opposition. On a very solid 6% swing in a suburban representative seat. We‘ll see tomorrow, but this may be the beginning of the end for Dutton’s leadership.

Who could conceivably replace Dutton as leader (and do a better job)? I know he’s unpopular but I can’t think of a list of candidates that isn’t just listing of random senior shadow frontbenchers (Taylor, Tehan, Fletcher, Wood, Ley et al).

[Pericles]

Brutal result, Dutton won't contest a general election as party leader.

[Logical]

Under a universal 6% swing the coalition would go down to 34 seats, down 24. At that point there would be almost as many Nats as there are Libs lol.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Goodbye Dutton, it wasn't nice knowing you.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

There hasn't been a contested spill federally in either major party since 2018. Which is quite amazing if you look at the period from 2007 to 2018.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, a lot were sceptical that Labor could do this - the Albanese honeymoon is still going strong.

(Starmer - narrowly - survived Hartlepool, but I doubt Dutton will be as lucky)

[Cassius]

There hasn't been a contested spill federally in either major party since 2018. Which is quite amazing if you look at the period from 2007 to 2018.

It helps that both parties have changed their rules in order to heighten the threshold for the calling of a spill (I think in the case of the Libs you’d need two-thirds of the party to sign onto a spill motion if the target was a sitting PM who’d won an election), unlike the good old days when, as far as I’m aware, all that was needed was for one disgruntled MP to strut into the party room, slap down a spill motion and you were on like Tony Abbott’s thong.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Well, a lot were sceptical that Labor could do this - the Albanese honeymoon is still going strong.

Even Labor strategists and insiders are apparently quite surprised by it too! Their briefings were getting very downcast today, as were hinted internal polls.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There hasn't been a contested spill federally in either major party since 2018. Which is quite amazing if you look at the period from 2007 to 2018.

It helps that both parties have changed their rules in order to heighten the threshold for the calling of a spill (I think in the case of the Libs you’d need two-thirds of the party to sign onto a spill motion if the target was a sitting PM who’d won an election), unlike the good old days when, as far as I’m aware, all that was needed was for one disgruntled MP to strut into the party room, slap down a spill motion and you were on like Tony Abbott’s thong.

Old system was anyone can move a spill motion, a vote is called if there’s enough dissent that the leader thinks it necessary, then you need a majority of members in favour of the motion to vacate the leadership. This lead to the hilarious spectacle in February 2015 of Tony Abbott defeating an “empty chair” 61 votes to 39.

The current Liberal rules require 67% of caucus for PM, or 50% for an opposition leader. And the current Labor rules require 75% of caucus in favour for a PM, or 60% for an Opposition leader.

However these rules still don’t mean that a PM could endure without the support of caucus. It just eliminates the sudden midnight coups. Instead a PM with minority caucus support can be gradually forced to resign, then a nice slow orderly leadership ballot can be held.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

For the first time in 100 years the government will gain a by-election seat from the opposition. On a very solid 6% swing in a suburban representative seat. We‘ll see tomorrow, but this may be the beginning of the end for Dutton’s leadership.

Who could conceivably replace Dutton as leader (and do a better job)? I know he’s unpopular but I can’t think of a list of candidates that isn’t just listing of random senior shadow frontbenchers (Taylor, Tehan, Fletcher, Wood, Ley et al).

This exact reason is why a spill probably won’t happen this week. Dutton may be gone sooner, but I think the red line for his leadership is the Queensland election next October. Dutton’s got very close ties to the state party and their current leadership team, and it’s the one state election where he’ll actually get involved on the ground rather than exiled by the state branch. If the LNP can’t defeat Palaszczuk, or worse goes backwards, Dutton’s toast. There is no greater test of his leadership, and if he can’t translate federal success stateside then no one can have confidence in his chances at a federal election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Under a universal 6% swing the coalition would go down to 34 seats, down 24. At that point there would be almost as many Nats as there are Libs lol.

More directly alarming, the Liberals have 3 seats left in Greater Melbourne. All right next to Aston, all on margins under 2%. Carbon copy demographics, voter bases, state results and historical results. And the Liberals have a leader who is toxic in Melbourne and (per leaked internal polling) was the major drag on their vote in this by-election.

[GoTfan]

Under a universal 6% swing the coalition would go down to 34 seats, down 24. At that point there would be almost as many Nats as there are Libs lol.

More directly alarming, the Liberals have 3 seats left in Greater Melbourne. All right next to Aston, all on margins under 2%. Carbon copy demographics, voter bases, state results and historical results. And the Liberals have a leader who is toxic in Melbourne and (per leaked internal polling) was the major drag on their vote in this by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Still licking his wounds from Aston, Dutton has decided now is the perfect time… to announce the Liberals are opposing the Voice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-is-making-labor-look-like-the-natural-party-of-government-20230403-p5cxlh.html

Anthony Albanese seems to be doing a pretty good job of advancing his project to make Labor the natural party of government. A central reason why is because Peter Dutton is making the Liberals the natural party of opposition.

Only about one in four voters under the age of 40 said they voted for the Coalition.

As Jackman notes, never before in its 35-year history has the Australian Election Study recorded such low levels of support for either major party among such a large segment of the electorate.

That sage of the Canberra press gallery, Malcolm Farr, once remarked that Scott Morrison’s main contribution to Australian political life was to stop Peter Dutton from becoming prime minister. Presently, and also perhaps permanently, Peter Dutton also seems to be stopping Peter Dutton from ever entering The Lodge.

Interesting article.
https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf
This is the study they linked to.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

[Intell]

Not allowing at least a conscience vote seems to be a big mistake as it does not give them out. With allowing the conscience vote, you could say that the liberal party is a big tent for people with different social values that believe in the rule of law and economic stability yada yada.

But by having such a concrete position, you just seem like a party for conservatives who are reactionary and oppose a voice, which will not be popular in inner city and teal electorates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

Being a former Queensland cop and keeping all the mannerisms of one only reinforces the creepiness.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Not allowing at least a conscience vote seems to be a big mistake as it does not give them out. With allowing the conscience vote, you could say that the liberal party is a big tent for people with different social values that believe in the rule of law and economic stability yada yada.

But by having such a concrete position, you just seem like a party for conservatives who are reactionary and oppose a voice, which will not be popular in inner city and teal electorates.

Completely agree, staking a staunch position is bad politics. But it fits Dutton’s leadership style. The fundamental miscalculation is defeating a referendum doesn’t mean sh**t for opposition credibility.

But let’s be clear here, MPs are not bound to this decision. Bridget Archer is already confirmed to cross the floor, it’s pretty likely there’ll be more with her. Backbenchers will be free to campaign against the party line, just not too prominently. The decision merely binds shadow cabinet and directs party central funding.
Just think of how many times we shriek about being a broad church.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

[CumbrianLefty]

My t-shirt is raising questions, etc etc

[Meclazine for Israel]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

Just don't call him Voldemort.

[Cassius]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

Just don't call him Voldemort.

Better Voldemort than Mr Potato Head.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

The self-awareness and sense of humor (or sense of something humor-adjacent) about it actually make me like Dutton slightly more, although that's not saying much at all.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

The self-awareness and sense of humor (or sense of something humor-adjacent) about it actually make me like Dutton slightly more, although that's not saying much at all.

He’s definitely got some sense of humour.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Still licking his wounds from Aston, Dutton has decided now is the perfect time… to announce the Liberals are opposing the Voice.

In but a day the party’s already tearing itself apart. The Tasmanian and WA Liberal branches are officially, publicly supporting the voice, it looks likely the NSW and ACT state branches will support it, the Queensland and Victorian Liberal leaders are pointedly refusing to back Dutton and are refusing to stake a position, the SA branch is divided as usual and the NT Country Liberals have lost their state director, angered Aboriginal members and possibly in crisis.

In Federal parliament moderate backbenchers are in uproar. Parliament resumes sitting in May for the budget, and while that’ll distract for a few weeks Dutton is facing a lot of strife when he returns to the party room.

Oh and Ken Wyatt, ScoMo’s Minister for Indigenous Australians and by far the most prominent and respected Aboriginal Liberal has quit the party in disgust.