Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Senate:
Safe D
California Feinstein (D) 61, Mountjoy (R) 35, Other 4
Delaware Carper (D) 64, Ting (R) 34, Other 2
Florida Bill Nelson (D) 61, Harris (R) 37, Other 2
Hawaii Akaka (D) 61, Thielen (R) 37, Other 2
Massachusetts Kennedy (D) 67, Chase (R) 31, Other 2
Minnesota* Klobuchar (D) 54, Kennedy (R) 42, Other 4
Nebraska Ben Nelson (D) 56, Ricketts (R) 43, Other 1
New Mexico Bingaman (D) 64, McCulloch (R) 34, Other 2
New York Clinton (D) 66, Spencer (R) 31, Other 3
North Dakota Conrad (D) 69, Grotberg (R) 26, Other 5
Ohio (R) Brown (D) 55, DeWine (R) 44, Other 1
Pennsylvania (R) Casey (D) 55, Santorum (R) 45
Washington Cantwell (D) 55, McGavick (R) 42, Other 3
West Virginia Byrd (D) 63, Raese (R) 35, Other 2
Wisconsin Kohl (D) 65, Lorge (R) 31, Other 4

Likely D
Michigan Stabenow (D) 54, Bouchard (R) 45, Other 1

Lean D
New Jersey Menendez (D) 52, Kean (R) 46, Other 2

Tossup (Lean D)
Virginia Webb (D) 49.9, Allen (R) 48.3, Other 2.6
Montana Tester (D) 49.5, Burns (R) 48.4, Other 2.1
Maryland* Steele (R) 49.5, Cardin (D) 48.6, Other 1.9
Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4

Toss-up (Pure)
Missouri McCaskill (D) 49.6, Talent (R) 49.3, Other 1.1

Lean R
Tennessee* Corker (R) 53, Ford (D) 46, Other 1
Arizona Kyl (R) 54, Pederson (D) 45, Other 1

Likely R
None

Safe R
Indiana Lugar (R) 91, Other 9
Maine Snowe (R) 72, Bright (D) 25, Other 3
Mississippi Lott (R) 63, Fleming (D) 36, Other 1
Nevada Ensign (R) 56, Carter (D) 43, Other 1
Texas Hutchinson (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 37, Other 1
Utah Hatch (R) 64, Ashdown (D) 34, Other 2
Wyoming Thomas (R) 68, Groutage (D) 28, Other 4

Safe I
Vermont* Sanders (D/I) 62, Tarrant (R) 35, Other 3

Likely I
Connecticut Lieberman (CFL) 49, Lamont (D) 40, Schlesinger (R) 10, Other 1
Final Prediction
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
Montana
Missouri

Republican gains
Maryland

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
51 R, 47D, 2 I
FINAL PREDICTIONS - HOUSE
* indicates change of party
GOP Seats
Likely D
1. AZ-08* (open)
2. CO-07* (open)

Lean D
3. PA-10*
4. IN-08*
5. IA-01* (open)
6. PA-07*
7. OH-18* (open)
8. OH-15*
9. NY-24* (open)
10. IN-02*
11. TX-22* (open)

Toss-up (Lean D)
12. FL-16 (open)
13. NM-01*
14. NC-11*
15. CT-05*
16. NH-02*
17. PA-06*
18. FL-13 (open)*
19. CT-04*

Toss-up (Pure)
20. NY-20*
21. OH-01*
22. FL-22
23. CT-02
24. AZ-05*
25. KY-03*
26. IN-09
27. IL-06 (open)
28. WI-08 (open)

Toss-up (Lean R)
29. VA-02
30. PA-08
31. NY-26
32. NY-25*
33. ID-01 (open)
34. CA-11*
35. OH-02
36. WY-AL

Lean R
37. NY-29
38. CO-04
39. KY-04
39. WA-08
41. KS-02
42. OH-12
43. PA-04
44. MN-01
45. MN-06 (open)
46. KY-02
47. NE-03 (open)
48. AZ-01
49. NY-19
50. IL-10
51. IA-02
52. NV-03
53. NC-08
54. NY-03
55. NV-02 (open)
56. VA-10
57. WA-05
58. CA-04
59. CO-05 (open)

Likely R
60. TX-23
61. NJ-07
62. IN-03
63. MI-07 (open)
64. NH-01
65. FL-09 (open)
66. NE-01
67. FL-08
68. MI-08
69. IL-11
70. NY-13
71. MI-09
72. NJ-05
73. CA-50
74. WV-02
75. IA-04

Dem Seats
Toss-up
1. IL-08
2. GA-08
3. GA-12*

Lean D
4. VT-AL
5. IA-03
6. IN-07
7. OR-05
8. WV-AL
9. TX-17

Likely D
10. IL-17 (open)
11. LA-03
12. CO-03
13. NC-13
14. SC-05
15. KS-03
16. LA-02

House Pickups
Dems (+24)
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-11
CO-07 (open)
CT-04
CT-05
FL-13
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
NC-11
NH-02
NM-01
NY-20
NY-24 (open)
NY-25
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)

GOP (+1)
GA-12

110th Congress
226 D, 209 R

[nclib]

You didn't list Connecticut or Vermont.

Good picks, though.

[MarkWarner08]

Sounds good. I see you have a 3 seat Democratic pickup that go up to  5 seats. What are your thoughts on Harold Ford?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rhode Island (R)  (obviously if Laffey wins, this becomes safe R, but I really don't trust any RI polls)

Safe D if Laffey wins, surely?

[Sam Spade]

All things have been corrected, and I have also added my personal predictions, which I meant to do when I posted the thread...

Sounds good. I see you have a 3 seat Democratic pickup that go up to  5 seats. What are your thoughts on Harold Ford?

Right now, my prediction would be 4 seats.  3 seats would not be unreasonable, neither would five seats.

Harold Ford will need some help to win because the natural demographics of Tennessee are really against him.  Also, we only have one poll showing him within 6, after all of the pre-primary polls showing him -10 or lower.  Normally, I am leery of making changes because of one poll, but it's been nearly a month, so I feel like I have to.

[TomC]

I think the Dems will get one surpirse seat- and I'm going with Va. That would make the Senate 50R/48D/2I.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that TN goes into likely republican and VA leans Democratic. The chances for a Democratic takeover now rest with Va and even less so with TN.

[Fritz]

Anxiously awaiting your House predictions, Sam.  I made a little spreadsheet from the last set of predictions I saw you post, and it needs to be updated. 

[jerusalemcar5]

Looks good.  However I must type the following in caps since I promised to bring this up in ever thread.

LIEBERMAN WILL NOT BE IN THE SENATE AS AN INDEPENDENT. AS HE SAID HE WAS, IS, AND ALWAYS WILL BE A DEMOCRAT.  HE WOULDN'T GIVE THAT UP TO BE LABELED AN "INDEPENDENT". 

CT is the safest of all Democratic seats.  Thank you.

[nini2287]

I think that TN goes into likely republican and VA leans Democratic. The chances for a Democratic takeover now rest with Va and even less so with TN.

How does Virginia lean Democrat?  Allen is still a popular incumbent, has lead in every reputable poll, is outfundraising Webb and is currently suffering a drop over one gaffe that won't last until Electon Day.

[??????????]

Democrats keeping grasping for straws with Virginia.

[Sam Spade]

Anxiously awaiting your House predictions, Sam.  I made a little spreadsheet from the last set of predictions I saw you post, and it needs to be updated. 

Here, though, I'm only going to be listing the top 40 GOP and top 10 Dem, in no particular order and after that, stating which ones will be defeated.

Even though there are going to be certain races right now below the top 50 that will certainly move up into the top 50 (as others fall out), I'm not really going to go into that kind of detail now.

For example, MN-01 and MN-02 can be considered on the outside looking in right now.  But if, say, MN-01 has a indy poll out showing Kalz within 3 points of Gutknecht and say, another poll comes out showing Weichert with a double-digit lead in WA-08, you may well see a change.

What this is, similar to a poll, is a snapshot in time.

[Sam Spade]

I have added House predictions.  Remember that in the House, my predictions are idiosyncratic.  This means, in my mind, that a House race may be lower-ranked on my actual list (WY-AL) than some others (CT-04), but that I think at this time the lower-ranked one stands a better chance of being lost.

[MarkWarner08]

I agree with you about IL-08. Rep. Melissa Bean (D) is going to lose reelection.

[MarkWarner08]

I challenge Republicans to give me a reason why Harold Ford will lose this election. He's running a nearly perfect campaign, he's got a COH advantage,  he's got an opponent who is too liberal on abortion and love raising taxes. Here are a some recent headlines from this race:

"Ford camp says Corker failed to pay taxes on 2 companies."

"Ford on offensive against Corker."

"President may bring Corker cash – at a price."

"Corker misses a chance not debating in Jackson."

"Public should see Corker's taxes."

"Ford says Corker did not respond to 911 concerns."

"DSCC Ad Labels Bob Corker "Big Oil" Republican."

Need a say more? The momentum has shifted in this race.

Ford is gaining because of his strong, positive message and because Tennessee will say no to a flip-flopping, tax-hiking, wishy-washy, prevaricator who will jeopardize America's security. People died in Chattanooga because Corker slashed the 9-11 budget. With America's security at stake, can we afford Bob Corker's dangerous incompetence?

[Sam Spade]

Although I'm not a Republican, the observation that I would make is that the geographical distribution of voters within Tennessee is what should theoretically give Corker an advantage in the race.

The growth of the Nashville suburbs and the impact it had on Central Tennessee in the 1990s fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Tennessee political spectrum.  After all, Eastern Tennessee has voted Republican for nearly forever and Western Tennessee has voted Democratic for nearly forever.  Central Tennessee was the swing area.

As the Nashville suburbs grew, Tennessee became more and more Republican.  As Al is fond of noting, suburbs in the South are much more Republican and conservative than rural areas, and the growth of the suburbs in Tennessee has laid Democratic chances bare for the last 12 years, with the exception of Gov. Phil Bredesen, who, not surprisingly, is from Central Tennessee.

To sum up, a candidate from Western Tennessee has a lot of geographical disadvantages to overcome, something not even a perfect campaign may fully eliminate.  It's one of the reasons why I consider Virginia a better shot than Tennessee, on the whole.

[Torie]

What pops out at me is NY-29 on your list. Have you seen a poll or something?  This is the most GOP seat in New York, per its voting patterns. The Weldon seat also needs a poll in my mind to get a handle on it, but it is certainly in play, and Weldon is controversial.

[Sam Spade]

What pops out at me is NY-29 on your list. Have you seen a poll or something?  This is the most GOP seat in New York, per its voting patterns. The Weldon seat also needs a poll in my mind to get a handle on it, but it is certainly in play, and Weldon is controversial.

NY-29 is sort of one of those "out there" picks (I'm allowed a couple for this point in the contest).  I have no polls on the contest.

My rationale is two-fold: First, the GOP environment in NY this year will be horrid, maybe the worst in this country outside Ohio.  That already puts a number of seats in that state more on the list than one might expect.

Second, Kuhl is a freshman Rep. running for re-election who only got 51% in 2004 (while Bush was getting 56%).  As of right now, I am not predicting a national wave, more of a regional wave that affects the Ohio River Valley area and the Northeast suburbs.  Freshman Reps. historically are the most vulnerable to these waves, which is why I'm putting him above a few others in my "prediction game".

I agree in terms of what is needed to get a feel of the Weldon seat, but right now I have to consider (all factors given) that PA-07 is more vulnerable than PA-08, mainly because Fitzpatrick is proving himself to be an above-average incumbent under the circumstances (even though he is a freshman).

I guess my overall comment is going to be (in general to other posters, not just you, Torie):  Don't take my predictions too seriously right now; look at the bottom line seats that appear to be vulnerable.  I will occasionally throw things that potentially seem "out there" if I get a feeling that something may be occurring in the background that others aren't catching onto.  It's my way of trying to beat the system. 

I'll try to update this (and the Senate) every week or so until election day.

[Moooooo]

This will be one of the only prediction threads/posts that I pay attention to.  I know you do you're homework and your typically one of the least partisan people on this board.

Looking forward to the next two months...

[Adlai Stevenson]

Can someone explain why Melissa Bean will lose re-election?  I thought her constituiency service was quite good and she had consistently taken moderate positions on the issues.  Bush won 56% of the vote in IL-8 to be sure, but other Democrats are safer in much more partisan GOP districts.

[MarkWarner08]

Can someone explain why Melissa Bean will lose re-election?  I thought her constituiency service was quite good and she had consistently taken moderate positions on the issues.  Bush won 56% of the vote in IL-8 to be sure, but other Democrats are safer in much more partisan GOP districts.

Melissa Bean is a fluke winner who faces an angry base, a liberal 3rd party candidate funded by the unions and a well-funded opponent in a conservative district so conservative it once elected Donald Rumsfeld.

[MarkWarner08]

Although I'm not a Republican, the observation that I would make is that the geographical distribution of voters within Tennessee is what should theoretically give Corker an advantage in the race.

The growth of the Nashville suburbs and the impact it had on Central Tennessee in the 1990s fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Tennessee political spectrum.  After all, Eastern Tennessee has voted Republican for nearly forever and Western Tennessee has voted Democratic for nearly forever.  Central Tennessee was the swing area.

As the Nashville suburbs grew, Tennessee became more and more Republican.  As Al is fond of noting, suburbs in the South are much more Republican and conservative than rural areas, and the growth of the suburbs in Tennessee has laid Democratic chances bare for the last 12 years, with the exception of Gov. Phil Bredesen, who, not surprisingly, is from Central Tennessee.

To sum up, a candidate from Western Tennessee has a lot of geographical disadvantages to overcome, something not even a perfect campaign may fully eliminate.  It's one of the reasons why I consider Virginia a better shot than Tennessee, on the whole.

Thanks for your comments. What about Corker's failures as a candidate? Don't his failures as Mayor combined with the national climate put this race in play?

[DownWithTheLeft]

How I feel it will look going into Election Day (not necessarily today, I'm using state trends, corruption issues, and a little bit of poll swings)

Strong Rep:
AZ
IN
ME
MS
NV
TX
UT
WY

Likely Rep:
VA
TN
MO

Tossup Lean GOP:
PA
NJ (D)
MD (D if Mfume wins primary)
MT (causes Tester is an awful campaigner)

Tossup Lean Dem:
RI (Chafee)
OH (R)
MD (Cardin)

Likely Dem:
RI (Laffey)
WA
MI
MN
VT

Solid Dem:
CA
DE
FL
HI
MA
NE
NM
NY
ND
WV
WI

So, if the GOP wins all tossups that I predict, they gain +2, Dems +4.  Given my ratings I think it will either by split or +1 Dems.  This ridiculous gains aren't going to happen, especially if gas continues to falls.

I went through individual races once applying the same standards and got about +5 or 6 for Dems, not enough to take it back.

[Torie]

Can someone explain why Melissa Bean will lose re-election?  I thought her constituiency service was quite good and she had consistently taken moderate positions on the issues.  Bush won 56% of the vote in IL-8 to be sure, but other Democrats are safer in much more partisan GOP districts.

Melissa Bean is a fluke winner who faces an angry base, a liberal 3rd party candidate funded by the unions and a well-funded opponent in a conservative district so conservative it once elected Donald Rumsfeld.

The Rumsfeld seat was the Kirk seat, with some now Dem precincts removed in Evanston, and some of the Bean seat. But it was mostly the Kirk seat. The Chicago burbs are so different these days, that history of 30 years ago, is ancient history, psephologically. Chicago burbs have done a Philly and NYC burbs thingy. They have discovered they don't hate Dems as corrupt union controlled  econmic populist corrupt hacks, that want their money.

[MarkWarner08]

Great job, Sam Spade! Much credit for your excellent predictions.

Here's my view:

Prediction (as of Labor Day, September 4)

Democratic gains
AZ-08 Democratic Win
CO-07  Democratic Win
CT-04 GOP hold --- Chris Shays is officially running as a Democrat.
FL-13 GOP hold—This district is mostly Sarasota, a very conservative part of Florida.
IA-01 Democratic Win
IN-02 Democratic Win
IN-08 Democratic Win
IN-09 Democratic Win
MN-06  Democratic Win
NY-24 Democratic Win
NY-29 GOP hold—Eric Massa probably can’t win in this conservative a district.
OH-01 Democratic Win
OH-15 Democratic Win
PA-06 Democratic Win
PA-07 Democratic Win
TX-22 Democratic Win
WI-08 Democratic Win
WY-AL GOP hold - Isn’t Wyoming too right wing?


Democrats will pickup NM-01 and KY-04. I have Madrid winning because oif Wilson’s dogmatic support of an unpopular war. Lucas will be helped by a $2.7 million DCCC ad buy.

Republican gains
IL-08  GOP win

110th Congress