Which Democratic presidential victory was bigger?

[President Johnson]

I'd say 2020 although Joe Biden won less electoral votes than Barack Obama in 2012 because the popular vote margin and vote share was higher. Also, Biden defeated an incumbent while Obama was an incumbent president. And last but not least, the Democrats won a trifecta in 2020 which they didn't in 2012.

[dw93]

It's a tough call. On the one hand, Obama somewhat over performed expectations in 2012 while Biden definitely under performed them and Obama had stronger coattails down ticket, making gains in both the House and the Senate, even if he did come short of retaking the House, while the Democrats lost seats in the House, nearly losing the majority, and lost state legislative seats, and while the Democrats netted gains in the Senate, one could argue at least one of the runoffs in Georgia would've stayed Republican had Trump and to a lesser extent McConnell not repeatedly shot the GOP in the foot between November 3rd and January 5th.

On the other hand, Biden did take down an Incumbent, which hadn't happened in 28 years, and did so in a very polarized time, and won two states that hadn't voted Democratic since the 1990s as well as a congressional district (NE 2nd) that hadn't been won by the Democrats since Obama's first win in 2008 in the process. Biden also brought enough Obama/Trump voters back to the Democratic fold and brought traditionally Republican suburbanites to his column, and some of those suburbanites probably had never voted Democratic prior to 2020, and I feel Georgia and Arizona are somewhat reflective of this. At the same time, Obama lost ground compared to 2008 and brought no new voters to the Democratic fold in 2012.

Obviously Biden won more raw votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2012, while Obama fared much better electorally in his re election victory than Biden did last November, so electorally 2012 was obviously bigger, while Biden's PV share and greater number of raw votes make 2020 a bigger win in that regard. The other factors in the end make it a wash.

[Chips]

2012, barely.

[TDAS04]

2012.  More electoral votes, fewer states carried by slim margins, lower expectations.  The only argument for 2020 is the slightly bigger popular vote margin.  Democrats did win trifecta in 2020, but the thread title says “presidential” victory.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

How on earth is anyone voting for 2020? Biden was a 0.3% PV swing away from losing!!

[Orser67]

The four ways I think about the size of a presidential election victory are:

Tipping point state margin: Obama +5.4% vs Biden +0.6%
PV margin: Obama +3.9% vs. Biden +4.4%
PV%: Obama 51.1% vs. Biden 51.3%
EV%: Obama 61.7% vs. Biden 56.9%

To me, Obama's huge advantage with the tipping point state easily outweighs Biden's advantage with the popular vote.