If subsequent Presidential elections were held two years earlier post-Watergate...
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  If subsequent Presidential elections were held two years earlier post-Watergate...
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Author Topic: If subsequent Presidential elections were held two years earlier post-Watergate...  (Read 991 times)
ShadowRocket
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« on: May 21, 2021, 05:57:37 PM »

Who are some of the people you think could've become President in this timeline?

I'm envisioning a scenario where Nixon resigns late 1973 instead, doesn't pick Gerald Ford to replace Agnew, and House Speaker Carl Albert becomes President.  The optics of the Presidency switching parties without an election and a desire to move on from Watergate prompts the quick passage of a constitutional amendment to hold a special Presidential election in 1974 with the stipulation that the winner gets to serve a full term.

It seems more than likely that Ford and Carter never become President in this universe.  The 1974 special election likely sees a Democrat elected. I'm thinking one of the big names at the time like Ted Kennedy or Birch Bayh gets the nomination.  I suspect that Reagan becomes President in 1978 with his legacy being relatively similar to real life.
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Independents for Nihilism
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2021, 08:39:25 PM »

This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2021, 09:03:35 PM »

This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.

I could actually see Gore taking the place of Clinton in this timeline as the "New Democrat" figure that breaks the GOP hold on the Presidency that started with Reagan.  Clinton's presidency strikes me as likely being butterflied out in this timeline. But I think there still would've been someone that played a similar role. Maybe Joe Biden could've become President 30 years earlier?

Fun to think about.
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dw93
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2021, 11:18:14 AM »

38. Carl Albert (Democratic, Acting): 1974-1975
39. Scoop Jackson (Democratic): 1975-1983
40. Howard Baker (Republican): 1983-1991
41. Mario Cuomo (Democratic): 1991-1999
42. Al Gore (Democratic): 1999-2003

43. John McCain (Republican):2003-2007
44. John Kerry (Democratic): 2007-2011
45. Mitt Romney (Republican): 2011-2019
46. Tim Pawlenty (Republican): 2019-Present


This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.

This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.

I could actually see Gore taking the place of Clinton in this timeline as the "New Democrat" figure that breaks the GOP hold on the Presidency that started with Reagan.  Clinton's presidency strikes me as likely being butterflied out in this timeline. But I think there still would've been someone that played a similar role. Maybe Joe Biden could've become President 30 years earlier?

Fun to think about.

I don't buy that this scenario would trigger an earlier Reagan revolution as the Democrats would have someone much better equipped for the Presidency elected in 1974 than they did with Carter in real life 1976, and there's a good chance Reagan would be the fall guy in 1974. On top of that, Carter's term really didn't go to sh**t until 1979, so a Democrat who put their Democratic Majorities to use from 1975-1978 could very easily get re elected in 1978 in this scenario, but of course their handpicked successor would be DOA against just about any Republican come 1982. I dare say this scenario may actually work out better for the country in the long term as it might keep the Republican party more moderate.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2021, 07:29:19 PM »

Wouldn't require a special constitutional amendment, but just a resuscitation of the 1792 Succession Act. In any event:

38. Carl Albert (Democratic): 1973-1975
39. Jimmy Carter (Democratic): 1975-1979
40. Ronald Reagan (Republican): 1979-1987
41. D. Wire Newman (Democratic): 1987-1991
42. Owen Lassiter (Republican): 1991-1999
43. Jed Bartlet (Democratic): 1999-2007
44. Matt Santos (Democratic): 2007-2015
45. Jeff Haffley (Republican): 2015-2023
46. Sam Seaborn (Democratic): 2023-

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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2021, 04:42:19 PM »

38. Carl Albert (Democratic, Acting): 1974-1975
39. Scoop Jackson (Democratic): 1975-1983
40. Howard Baker (Republican): 1983-1991
41. Mario Cuomo (Democratic): 1991-1999
42. Al Gore (Democratic): 1999-2003

43. John McCain (Republican):2003-2007
44. John Kerry (Democratic): 2007-2011
45. Mitt Romney (Republican): 2011-2019
46. Tim Pawlenty (Republican): 2019-Present


This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.

This universe obviously leads to a Jed Bartlett Presidency from '98 to '06

But for real, if a Dem gets elected in '74, Reagan is a shoe-in from '78 on. I think real life performs similarly from then on. Maybe '98 leads to a Gore presidency and a Democratic early '00s.

I could actually see Gore taking the place of Clinton in this timeline as the "New Democrat" figure that breaks the GOP hold on the Presidency that started with Reagan.  Clinton's presidency strikes me as likely being butterflied out in this timeline. But I think there still would've been someone that played a similar role. Maybe Joe Biden could've become President 30 years earlier?

Fun to think about.

I don't buy that this scenario would trigger an earlier Reagan revolution as the Democrats would have someone much better equipped for the Presidency elected in 1974 than they did with Carter in real life 1976, and there's a good chance Reagan would be the fall guy in 1974. On top of that, Carter's term really didn't go to sh**t until 1979, so a Democrat who put their Democratic Majorities to use from 1975-1978 could very easily get re elected in 1978 in this scenario, but of course their handpicked successor would be DOA against just about any Republican come 1982. I dare say this scenario may actually work out better for the country in the long term as it might keep the Republican party more moderate.

Perhaps.  Though it seems inevitable to me that a conservative Republican President would still emerge in this timeline.  Maybe we would've wound up with a President Bob Dole or Jack Kemp in 1982 in this universe.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2021, 10:50:43 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2021, 10:54:59 AM by Antarctic-Statism »

38. Carl Albert (Democrat, Acting): 1974-1975
39. Frank Church (Democrat): 1975-1983
*
40. Jack Kemp (Republican): 1983-1991**
41. Bob Dole (Republican): 1991-1995***
42. Al Gore (Democrat): 1995-2003
43. John McCain (Republican): 2003-2007****
44. Sherrod Brown (Democrat): 2007-2015*****
45. Janet Napolitano (Democrat): 2015-2019
46. Marco Rubio (Republican): 2019-Present******

*While Church at first appears to be a more successful populist reaction to Republican corruption than Carter IOTL, he starts losing badly on foreign policy and social issues in his second term
**Reagan narrowly loses in 1978 with the memory of Watergate still too fresh and Kemp becomes the Reagan movement's standard bearer
***Takes Bush's place as the moderate VP
****Puts an end to the Kemp Era in short order through foreign policy that would make Bush look like a hippie; Great Recession hits earlier due to the stresses of the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran
*****No 2004 DNC keynote speech for Obama, no Clinton presidency for Hillary, and an ambitious Brown who's convinced he can do what Church did right this time
******The Tea Party president; has been less of a victim of himself than Trump, is still thought to have mismanaged COVID in-universe
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