PA - Data for Progress/John Fetterman (D): Fetterman leads in the primary and general, Lamb trails

[Skill and Chance]

Following last cycle, I have made it an ironclad rule that I will no longer trust internals.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320748939751026690

The actual results were Trump +1 and Taylor +13. And this is a wealthy, majority college-educated suburban district, not some WWC area with a ton of low-propensity Trump supporters.

Yes, DFP polling is fishy enough on its own.  If it's an internal for the candidate they have leading, doubly so.

[Skill and Chance]

Not terribly surprising. I fully expect Fetterman or whoever the Dem is to lead pretty consistently until '22 election day. It should be noted that these guys are pretty much partisan hacks that can maybe get a primary right but like most pollsters, vastly overstated Democrats lead in the presidential race and generic ballot in '20.

The thing that jumps out to me is Parnell only getting 40% against Fetterman but up to 44% against Lamb. Lamb is lower because of lower name ID, but that'd suggest Fetterman might actually have some crossover appeal.

I think Fetterman and Lamb both can win, but Lamb would have an easier time.  Also agree that D+4-6 polling = D+1 actual results in PA or any other Obama-Trump states at this point.  If the polls are showing a toss up, the Republican wins.