PA - Data for Progress/John Fetterman (D): Fetterman leads in the primary and general, Lamb trails
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Author Topic: PA - Data for Progress/John Fetterman (D): Fetterman leads in the primary and general, Lamb trails  (Read 2065 times)
VAR
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« on: May 20, 2021, 10:26:18 AM »
« edited: May 20, 2021, 10:29:44 AM by VAR »

May 7-14

Primary - 302 LV, MoE: 6%
40% John Fetterman
21% Conor Lamb
9% Malcolm Kenyatta
8% Chrissy Houlahan
5% Val Arkoosh
2% Sharif Street

General - 651 LV, MoE: 4%

48% John Fetterman (D)
38% Jeff Bartos (R)

48% John Fetterman (D)
40% Sean Parnell (R)

43% Conor Lamb (D)
42% Jeff Bartos (R)

44% Sean Parnell (R)
42% Conor Lamb (D)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1268025#blogHeader
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2021, 10:31:00 AM »

Christ, you posted this literally seconds before I posted in the PA-Sen thread.

This looks really promising. Kenyatta at 9% shows he has room to climb as well. But it is clear that Fetterman is the best candidate for the GE. Lamb trailing Parnell is a real cause for concern and certainly helps battle back against the narrative some on here have been pushing that Lamb can win the GE by virtue of being a moderate.

I think this helps reassure me on my support for Fetterman. I've been teetering between him and Malcolm for a while, but I was always determined to support the candidate with the best chance of winning between those two. I still would love to see Malcolm continue to grow and if he does not win the nomination this year, I would be thrilled to see him run for Congress eventually. He has a bright future.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2021, 10:36:09 AM »

This is obviously a push poll by a biased firm. The poll was even sponsored by Fetterman
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Gracile
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2021, 10:42:13 AM »

This is obviously a push poll by a biased firm. The poll was even sponsored by Fetterman

Data for Progress was pretty much the gold standard for Democratic primaries last cycle, so I would take any of their primary polls seriously (though with the obvious caveat that this is an internal for Fetterman and it is still early in the race).
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2021, 10:43:18 AM »

Following last cycle, I have made it an ironclad rule that I will no longer trust internals.



The actual results were Trump +1 and Taylor +13. And this is a wealthy, majority college-educated suburban district, not some WWC area with a ton of low-propensity Trump supporters.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2021, 10:43:57 AM »

I stand by my prediction of Fetterman losing the general election by a few points. Polling is not to be trusted, especially early polling.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2021, 10:55:13 AM »

Fetterman isn't losing, he is very similar to Bob Casey Jr, this is a premier race and so is the Gov race for 2024/ when Bob Casey is up
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2021, 11:03:00 AM »

Following last cycle, I have made it an ironclad rule that I will no longer trust internals.



The actual results were Trump +1 and Taylor +13. And this is a wealthy, majority college-educated suburban district, not some WWC area with a ton of low-propensity Trump supporters.

Yes, DFP polling is fishy enough on its own.  If it's an internal for the candidate they have leading, doubly so.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2021, 11:10:05 AM »

Not terribly surprising. I fully expect Fetterman or whoever the Dem is to lead pretty consistently until '22 election day. It should be noted that these guys are pretty much partisan hacks that can maybe get a primary right but like most pollsters, vastly overstated Democrats lead in the presidential race and generic ballot in '20.

The thing that jumps out to me is Parnell only getting 40% against Fetterman but up to 44% against Lamb. Lamb is lower because of lower name ID, but that'd suggest Fetterman might actually have some crossover appeal.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2021, 11:57:16 AM »

Not terribly surprising. I fully expect Fetterman or whoever the Dem is to lead pretty consistently until '22 election day. It should be noted that these guys are pretty much partisan hacks that can maybe get a primary right but like most pollsters, vastly overstated Democrats lead in the presidential race and generic ballot in '20.

The thing that jumps out to me is Parnell only getting 40% against Fetterman but up to 44% against Lamb. Lamb is lower because of lower name ID, but that'd suggest Fetterman might actually have some crossover appeal.

I think Fetterman and Lamb both can win, but Lamb would have an easier time.  Also agree that D+4-6 polling = D+1 actual results in PA or any other Obama-Trump states at this point.  If the polls are showing a toss up, the Republican wins. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2021, 12:02:18 PM »

PA and WI are Lean D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2021, 12:48:50 PM »

Worth noting that Biden was hitting 50% in virtually every PA poll in the final weeks of the campaign. Then again, it’s probably best not to put any stock in polling regardless of any rules/trends/consistent patterns of bias.

I think this race will end up 1-2 points to the left of WI, likely not more than that.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2021, 01:02:15 PM »

Fetterman getting 48% is definitely a realistic result.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2021, 01:08:38 PM »

Fetterman getting 48% is definitely a realistic result.

He will end up winning 54/46, he is our strongest candidate next to Ryan and Jackson and CRIST and Cunningham

Val Deming's, Isn't strong at all
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2021, 06:12:52 PM »

I believe Fetterman being at 48 right now and that he can push that to 50+1%. Problem is no way Parnell would only be at 26 with indies, likely a name recognition issue. The seat will be on a tightrope.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2021, 11:27:20 PM »

The primary numbers are certainly believable.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2021, 11:34:59 AM »

Yeah, as others have said, the primary numbers are the ones to pay attention to here. While this is probably too rosy for Fetterman, he probably has to be considered the favorite at this point.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2021, 02:04:41 PM »

The primary numbers looks plausible. For the general, we need more polls to see how accurate this is. Definitely encouraging so far, though I expect this to be a very close one. Go Fetterman! He'd a real addition to the senate.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2021, 08:53:21 PM »

Lamb should run for re-election, not for senate.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2021, 06:56:31 PM »

Ah yes Data for Progress, the people who had Greenfield up 4 the weekend before the election.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2021, 03:56:37 AM »

Ah yes Data for Progress, the people who had Greenfield up 4 the weekend before the election.


Traggy had Trump ahead in MI so what else is new
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #21 on: May 26, 2021, 03:04:59 PM »

Ah yes Data for Progress, the people who had Greenfield up 4 the weekend before the election.


Traggy had Trump ahead in MI so what else is new

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