ID-GOV 2022: Janice McGeachin In

[BoiseBoy]

I really don't see McGeachin outdoing 2014 Fulcher in 2022. Otter won by 7.77%. I would guess Little wins by over 8 at least, unless things go REALLY south in Idaho and we reimpose COVID restrictions through the end of the year.

[BoiseBoy]

Yet another Republican has entered the primary race. Steve Bradshaw, a Bonner County Commissioner, announced today:

https://redoubtnews.com/2021/07/commissioner-bradshaw-announces-for-idaho-governor/

[BoiseBoy]

Yet another Republican has entered the primary race. Steve Bradshaw, a Bonner County Commissioner, announced today:

https://redoubtnews.com/2021/07/commissioner-bradshaw-announces-for-idaho-governor/

Hard to see how Little loses this with such a divided opposition.

Of course, Little has not announced yet, but I would be surprised if he didn't run again. He's been fundraising for a while and has taken in some big money.

[BoiseBoy]

Yet another Republican has entered the primary race. Steve Bradshaw, a Bonner County Commissioner, announced today:

https://redoubtnews.com/2021/07/commissioner-bradshaw-announces-for-idaho-governor/

Hard to see how Little loses this with such a divided opposition.

Of course, Little has not announced yet, but I would be surprised if he didn't run again. He's been fundraising for a while and has taken in some big money.

Is there any geographical divide in Idaho that his opponents can leverage in the primary ? like trying to paint him as the canidate of boise or something ?

I don't think that will happen. If it does, it won't stick. Little is very much more a rancher type. He's from Emmett.

[BoiseBoy]

Yet another Republican has entered the primary race. Steve Bradshaw, a Bonner County Commissioner, announced today:

https://redoubtnews.com/2021/07/commissioner-bradshaw-announces-for-idaho-governor/

Hard to see how Little loses this with such a divided opposition.

Of course, Little has not announced yet, but I would be surprised if he didn't run again. He's been fundraising for a while and has taken in some big money.

Is there any geographical divide in Idaho that his opponents can leverage in the primary ? like trying to paint him as the canidate of boise or something ?

I don't think that will happen. If it does, it won't stick. Little is very much more a rancher type. He's from Emmett.

I'm wondering if Resenment against the rapid population growth in Ada County is going to play a role in this primary ?. It might be allow a far-right Canidate attract some more moderate support by taking a populist postion on that issue against traditional republican orthordoxy.

It didn't help Wayne Richey in the Boise mayoral election in 2019. That was pretty much his entire platform and he only got 847 votes (out of over 53k).

[BoiseBoy]

Yet another Republican has entered the primary race. Steve Bradshaw, a Bonner County Commissioner, announced today:

https://redoubtnews.com/2021/07/commissioner-bradshaw-announces-for-idaho-governor/

Hard to see how Little loses this with such a divided opposition.

Of course, Little has not announced yet, but I would be surprised if he didn't run again. He's been fundraising for a while and has taken in some big money.

Is there any geographical divide in Idaho that his opponents can leverage in the primary ? like trying to paint him as the canidate of boise or something ?

I don't think that will happen. If it does, it won't stick. Little is very much more a rancher type. He's from Emmett.

I'm wondering if Resenment against the rapid population growth in Ada County is going to play a role in this primary ?. It might be allow a far-right Canidate attract some more moderate support by taking a populist postion on that issue against traditional republican orthordoxy.

It didn't help Wayne Richey in the Boise mayoral election in 2019. That was pretty much his entire platform and he only got 847 votes (out of over 53k).

Isn't boise proper pretty liberal and democratic with relatively few republican votes ? I'm thinking such a message would resonate more in the suburbs  ?

Yeah, Boise itself is liberal. The suburbs are still fairly conservative, although I feel like that's slowly changing with population growth and general trends.

Exactly. Growth/housing/property taxes are major issues here. Right now, most of the focus from Little's challengers is on COVID restrictions and vaccine/mask mandates.

[BoiseBoy]

Because this probably does not warrant its own thread, and it promises to be a fun primary race for us Idahoans, this post serves as an overview of the Lt. Governor race. Incumbent Republican Janice McGeachin, as you may know, is running for governor and will not be seeking reelection as Lt. Governor.

Republican Candidates
Scott Bedke - State House Speaker and Representative for District 27A
He probably has the best chance of winning. He's pretty establishment and noncontroversial.

Priscilla Giddings - Representative for District 7A and USAF Reserve Officer
She's the more far-right candidate running. People outside Idaho will probably know her due to her revealing the identity of a sexual assault victim during the Aaron von Ehlinger hearing, which has earned her an ethics hearing and subsequent censure and removal from a House Committee.

Luke Malek - Former Representative for District 4A and lawyer
First to announce. Luke feels like the Tommy Ahlquist of this race. He seems like a good guy and reasonably moderate for a Republican in Idaho.

Democrat Candidates
Terri Pickens Manweiler - Lawyer, owner of Pickens Law, PA in Boise
First and only Democrat to announce as of August 11. She's focusing heavily on education and is trying to appeal to the populists by emphasizing the "not a career politician" message.

[BoiseBoy]

Bundy claims based on polling data that he is second behind Little, and is doing better than McGeachin.

https://newsradio1310.com/ammon-bundy-outlines-his-campaign-for-governor-of-idaho/

[BoiseBoy]

Some fundraising data from Idaho Education News:

Governor
Little - $291,750
Humphreys - $124,020
McGeachin - $82,500 (about $10k of this is left over from her Lt. Gov. fund)
Bradshaw - $3,000 ($1k of this was contributed by himself)
Bundy - $2,000

None of the other gubernatorial candidates have reported any contributions yet.

Lt. Governor
Malek - $93,446
Giddings - approx. $89,000
Bedke - $70,536
Manweiler (D)- $10,000 ($5k contributed by Manweiler, $5k contributed by her husband)

State Superintendent
Critchfield - approx. $92,000
Ybarra - $6,500
Durst - approx. $4,500

https://www.idahoednews.org/elections/fundraising-for-2022-little-critchfield-build-big-early-advantages/

[BoiseBoy]

Sandpoint mayor has entered the race as a Democrat. He is the second Democrat to declare. Former candidate and businessman A.J. Balukoff will serve as his campaign treasurer.

https://twitter.com/idahodispatch/status/1447306919555702784?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

I'm surprised Sandpoint's mayor is a Democrat.

The city voted for Biden 49.9-47.1 and Dems got 57.8% in the Gov race in 2018 there.

Really? That is not something I would have expected at all.

Well the rest of Bonner County is, as you may expect, blood red.

[BoiseBoy]

Ammon Bundy has been endorsed by Roger Stone.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CVJLYe7hUf-/

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/1458220945576022016?s=21

Well RIP Little.

[BoiseBoy]

How much influence do the Mormons have in Idaho politics? Tapping into their support may help Little.

Well my district (ID-02) has been represented by someone of the Mormon faith since the 1950s. They are a strong presence in South and East Idaho.

[BoiseBoy]

Ron Paul has endorsed Ammon Bundy for governor.

[BoiseBoy]

Luke Malek has dropped out of the race for Lt. Gov. and endorsed Scott Bedke:
https://twitter.com/LukeMalek/status/1462583559613341698?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Recent fundraising numbers:

Gov
Republican
Little ~$800,000
Humphreys ~$177,000
McGeachin ~$123,000
Bundy ~$10,000
Bradshaw ~$5,000

Democrat
Rognstad ~$30,000

Lt Gov
Republican
Bedke ~$158,000
Giddings ~$131,000

Democrat
Pickens Manweiler ~$47,500

[BoiseBoy]

Another update. Independent candidate Robert Dempsay has swapped his party affiliation to Democrat, becoming the third Democrat in the race. He announced yesterday.

[BoiseBoy]

Minor Republican candidate Jeff Cotton was arrested on December 30 in Ada County on two misdemeanor drug charges, a felony possession charge, and a misdemeanor injury to child charge.

[BoiseBoy]

Democrat candidate Melissa Robinson has dropped out of the race. That leaves Shelby Rognstad and Robert Dempsay as the only two Democrat candidates.

[BoiseBoy]

BREAKING:

There are rumors that Bundy plans to withdraw from the race and endorse McGeachin. If McGeachin wins the primary, he will not run as an independent.

If Little wins, Bundy will run as an independent, and McGeachin will endorse him over Little.

https://twitter.com/DonLDay/status/1494096907592814598?s=20&t=te2F2IAxVv0IBJ...

[BoiseBoy]

BREAKING:

There are rumors that Bundy plans to withdraw from the race and endorse McGeachin. If McGeachin wins the primary, he will not run as an independent.

If Little wins, Bundy will run as an independent, and McGeachin will endorse him over Little.

https://twitter.com/DonLDay/status/1494096907592814598?s=20&t=te2F2IAxVv0IBJ...

Now this is getting interesting...

It will be. Little aired his first campaign ad on TV today. Still no formal announcement.

[BoiseBoy]

BREAKING:

There are rumors that Bundy plans to withdraw from the race and endorse McGeachin. If McGeachin wins the primary, he will not run as an independent.

If Little wins, Bundy will run as an independent, and McGeachin will endorse him over Little.

https://twitter.com/DonLDay/status/1494096907592814598?s=20&t=te2F2IAxVv0IBJ...

Now this is getting interesting...

It will be. Little aired his first campaign ad on TV today. Still no formal announcement.

Do you think the primary is safe for Little? Or does McGeachin have a chance?

If Bundy drops out her chances improve; one less candidate to split the anti-Little vote. I don't see her winning, but I would not be surprised if she did.

[BoiseBoy]

BREAKING: Bundy is dropping out of the Republican Primary and will be running as an independent. He claims no deal with McGeachin was made.

https://twitter.com/RealABundy/status/1494336932960096260

[BoiseBoy]

The filing deadline is today, so here are the noteworthy candidates for state office.

GOV
Republican
Brad Little, incumbent
Janice McGeachin, Lt. Gov. of Idaho
Ed Humphreys, Region IV chair of the Idaho Republican Party
Steve Bradshaw, Bonner County Commissioner

Democrat
Shelby Rognstad, mayor of Sandpoint, Idaho

Libertarian
Paul Sand, White Bird, Idaho city councilman

Constitution
Ryan Cole, pathologist and member of Central Health District board

Independent
Ammon Bundy, Leader of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge occupation, anti-government activist

LT. GOV
Republican
Scott Bedke, Idaho House Speaker and District 27A representative
Priscilla Giddings, District 7A representative

Democrat
Terri Pickens Manweiler, lawyer and law firm owner

SECRETARY OF STATE
Republican
Phil McGrane, Ada County Clerk
Dorothy Moon, District 8B Representative
Mary Souza, District 4 Senator

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Republican
Lawrence Wasden, incumbent
Raúl Labrador, former ID-01 representative and Idaho Republican Party Chair
Art Macomber, lawyer and 2016 Idaho House of Representatives candidate

Democrat
Steven Scanlin, lawyer and law firm owner

STATE SUPERINTENDENT
Republican
Sherri Ybarra, incumbent
Debbie Critchfield, former state Board of Education president
Branden Durst, former District 18 Senator

Democrat
Terry Gilbert, former Idaho Education Association President