ID-GOV 2022: Janice McGeachin In

[I’m not Stu]

If Little wins the primary, Bundy wins the general election.

You're kidding right? No way in hell. Bundy was getting under 6% of the vote running as a Republican. He's been in jail and he's ran an unimpressive, unpopular campaign as an independent.

He won't get more than 3% of the general election vote, I can guarantee you that.

Even with McGeachin's endorsement?

[BoiseBoy]

If Little wins the primary, Bundy wins the general election.

You're kidding right? No way in hell. Bundy was getting under 6% of the vote running as a Republican. He's been in jail and he's ran an unimpressive, unpopular campaign as an independent.

He won't get more than 3% of the general election vote, I can guarantee you that.

Even with McGeachin's endorsement?

Bundy claims that story about her endorsing him in the general is not true.

He is on record as saying, "Although this is an intriguing idea, the fact of the matter is, Janice McGeachin and I never made any agreement to endorse each other."

She will not throw her support behind him when she loses.

[Roll Roons]

Janice is f**king nuts. Glad she’ll get crushed tomorrow and we’ll hopefully never hear from her again.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Here's why Janice McGeachin was crushed, regardless of the Trump endorsement:

• unusually high levels of Democrats participating in the Republican primary - I would estimate that ~15-20% of Democrats in the north end of Boise voted for Brad Little. This is unprecedented and is the only reason why she lost by 20 points (though she would have lost regardless).
• Around 30% of Idaho is Mormon and, for this reason, a Trump endorsement isn't worth as much as it would be anywhere else. At this point, many Mormons have come to terms with Trump but will still be prone to viewing him as a horrible role model. I think plenty of Mormons who voted for Trump in 2020 would be more likely to vote against a GOP primary candidate if they were endorsed by Trump!
• McGeachin is particularly toxic to Mormons. See this quote: "God calls us to pick up the sword and fight, and Christ will reign in the state of Idaho". Mormons know that non-Mormons who talk like this believe that they are heretics. Mormons tend to be allergic to fascists and white nationalists but will like ultra-right wingers like Ted Cruz or Raul Labrador because the latter are from a tradition that centers everything in "constitutionalism", American civic religion, which accommodates Mormons. The "new right" does not accommodate Mormons and, in various guises, implies nasty things about Mormons.

[I’m not Stu]

Will McGeachin endorse Bundy?

[RI]

[I’m not Stu]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

[VPH]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

Those counties tend to be super-far right.

[One Term Floridian]

Donate those red panhandle counties to Canada fr

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

That area is a white supremacist haven. Think Ruby Ridge, far-right anti-government militias, etc.

There's a reason why this was the strongest region of the state for all the far right candidates: Priscilla Giddings for Lt. Gov dominated here, and so did Raúl Labrador on his way to unseating the incumbent Attorney General.

[RI]

The Idaho panhandle has also seen a large amount of migration from Washington over the past two years among anti-restriction and anti-mandate conservatives.

[I’m not Stu]

What if a Republican candidate said: “Pick up the sword and fight, and Allah will reign in the state of Idaho”?

[Badger]

What if a Republican candidate said: “Pick up the sword and fight, and Allah will reign in the state of Idaho”?

Then she would win.

Not a primary obviously

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why did 20 state legislative incumbents loose ?
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1527053665940512768

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why did 20 state legislative incumbents loose ?
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1527053665940512768

State legislatures are insane.

[I’m not Stu]

Will McGeachin vote for Little, Bundy, or abstain?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

Wherever there are relatively new tracts of housing in northern Idaho, McGeachin obliterated Brad Little. This isn't a coincidence. Over the past two decades, an area in between Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint has emerged as a "redoubt" of survivalists and other kinds of truly radical right-wingers.

Kootenai County has been a hub of right-wing migration for a longer period of time but the character of newcomers has shifted substantially. In the 1990s, it was attracting an Evangelical subculture and "retired" police officers from southern California. Beginning in the mid-late 2000s and accelerating afterwards, the migration became less about "white flight" and became more explicitly political i.e. people moved to places like Athol, Careywood, Spirit Lake and so on specifically to build survivalist compounds.

Bonner County, which is where I was born, has been torn apart by this. At this point, every Republican primary attracts wide participation among Democrats living there. There are precincts in Sandpoint where Brad Little received ~70% of the vote and precincts in the "redoubt" parts of Bonner County where McGeachin received ~80% of the vote. There is a kind of coalition between moderate Republicans, who tend to be long-time residents, and Democrats, who tend to be children of hippies or hippies themselves, that has tried to fight back. It hasn't really worked.

At this stage, I expect that we'll see Democrats moving out of the Idaho panhandle. It's becoming too crowded, the newcomers are seriously uncivil maniacs who make for the worst possible neighbors. They are the right-wing equivalent of bomb-throwing antifa members. Old-timers in the region, however radical they might have been, had an understanding that north Idaho was once Democratic, that this was not inconsistent with being Idahoan. The newcomers insinuate that if you vote for Democrats, "you should go back to California" (insane maniac stuff - the Democrats in the panhandle are long-time residents!!).

[I’m not Stu]

Will Little win all the red Panhandle counties in the general election, or will Bundy win some? Might some vote Democratic with Bundy as a spoiler?

[kwabbit]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

Wherever there are relatively new tracts of housing in northern Idaho, McGeachin obliterated Brad Little. This isn't a coincidence. Over the past two decades, an area in between Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint has emerged as a "redoubt" of survivalists and other kinds of truly radical right-wingers.

Kootenai County has been a hub of right-wing migration for a longer period of time but the character of newcomers has shifted substantially. In the 1990s, it was attracting an Evangelical subculture and "retired" police officers from southern California. Beginning in the mid-late 2000s and accelerating afterwards, the migration became less about "white flight" and became more explicitly political i.e. people moved to places like Athol, Careywood, Spirit Lake and so on specifically to build survivalist compounds.

Bonner County, which is where I was born, has been torn apart by this. At this point, every Republican primary attracts wide participation among Democrats living there. There are precincts in Sandpoint where Brad Little received ~70% of the vote and precincts in the "redoubt" parts of Bonner County where McGeachin received ~80% of the vote. There is a kind of coalition between moderate Republicans, who tend to be long-time residents, and Democrats, who tend to be children of hippies or hippies themselves, that has tried to fight back. It hasn't really worked.

At this stage, I expect that we'll see Democrats moving out of the Idaho panhandle. It's becoming too crowded, the newcomers are seriously uncivil maniacs who make for the worst possible neighbors. They are the right-wing equivalent of bomb-throwing antifa members. Old-timers in the region, however radical they might have been, had an understanding that north Idaho was once Democratic, that this was not inconsistent with being Idahoan. The newcomers insinuate that if you vote for Democrats, "you should go back to California" (insane maniac stuff - the Democrats in the panhandle are long-time residents!!).

Are there enough survivalist nuts for them to be a dominant voting bloc in Northern Idaho? Or is it just that even the non survivalists are hard right because it's a more welcoming region for right-wing extremism? Hard to think that there are enough survivalists for Kootenai County to vote for McGeachin solely on that basis.

[VPH]

Will Little win all the red Panhandle counties in the general election, or will Bundy win some? Might some vote Democratic with Bundy as a spoiler?

Almost no chance Bundy wins a county but he might push 10% in a few

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

Wherever there are relatively new tracts of housing in northern Idaho, McGeachin obliterated Brad Little. This isn't a coincidence. Over the past two decades, an area in between Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint has emerged as a "redoubt" of survivalists and other kinds of truly radical right-wingers.

Kootenai County has been a hub of right-wing migration for a longer period of time but the character of newcomers has shifted substantially. In the 1990s, it was attracting an Evangelical subculture and "retired" police officers from southern California. Beginning in the mid-late 2000s and accelerating afterwards, the migration became less about "white flight" and became more explicitly political i.e. people moved to places like Athol, Careywood, Spirit Lake and so on specifically to build survivalist compounds.

Bonner County, which is where I was born, has been torn apart by this. At this point, every Republican primary attracts wide participation among Democrats living there. There are precincts in Sandpoint where Brad Little received ~70% of the vote and precincts in the "redoubt" parts of Bonner County where McGeachin received ~80% of the vote. There is a kind of coalition between moderate Republicans, who tend to be long-time residents, and Democrats, who tend to be children of hippies or hippies themselves, that has tried to fight back. It hasn't really worked.

At this stage, I expect that we'll see Democrats moving out of the Idaho panhandle. It's becoming too crowded, the newcomers are seriously uncivil maniacs who make for the worst possible neighbors. They are the right-wing equivalent of bomb-throwing antifa members. Old-timers in the region, however radical they might have been, had an understanding that north Idaho was once Democratic, that this was not inconsistent with being Idahoan. The newcomers insinuate that if you vote for Democrats, "you should go back to California" (insane maniac stuff - the Democrats in the panhandle are long-time residents!!).

Are there enough survivalist nuts for them to be a dominant voting bloc in Northern Idaho? Or is it just that even the non survivalists are hard right because it's a more welcoming region for right-wing extremism? Hard to think that there are enough survivalists for Kootenai County to vote for McGeachin solely on that basis.

There are an unfathomable number of nutjobs in Kootenai County. Not all of them are survivalists but, to an unusual extent, Republicans there have “drank the Kool-Aid”, worshipping guns as icons and humping police flags. I recall someone in my neighborhood turning his flag upside down after Biden was inaugurated. It is one thing for leftists to do this. By default, we are opposed to nationalism. When right-wingers do it, it is a sign of real brain-poisoning.

Another way of thinking about this: in the 2000s, Republicans in the area were Bush partisans of the flag-saluting orthodoxy. This new breed is far more likely to fly a police flag, a Gasden flag, a Trump banner or even a Confederate flag. They do not simply own guns, they have large AR-15 decals on their truck. They do not display any reverence for religion. They are openly confrontational to Democrats. In many ways, they remind me of the various progressive fruitcakes that I live around today who cling to masks and other performative gestures “in this house we believe in love and gays and minorities” vs. large gun dildo.

Basically, we have to contrast people who live an ideological lifestyle or who are part of an ideological subculture with people who are part of a demographic that is naturally represented by an ideology. By and large, the vast majority of Americans are the latter but there are small bubbles in certain neighborhoods where this is not so. Kootenai County is such a place for the Right, just as Portland is for the Left.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why did McGeachin win many Idaho Panhandle counties despite being from Idaho Falls?

Wherever there are relatively new tracts of housing in northern Idaho, McGeachin obliterated Brad Little. This isn't a coincidence. Over the past two decades, an area in between Coeur d'Alene and Sandpoint has emerged as a "redoubt" of survivalists and other kinds of truly radical right-wingers.

Kootenai County has been a hub of right-wing migration for a longer period of time but the character of newcomers has shifted substantially. In the 1990s, it was attracting an Evangelical subculture and "retired" police officers from southern California. Beginning in the mid-late 2000s and accelerating afterwards, the migration became less about "white flight" and became more explicitly political i.e. people moved to places like Athol, Careywood, Spirit Lake and so on specifically to build survivalist compounds.

Bonner County, which is where I was born, has been torn apart by this. At this point, every Republican primary attracts wide participation among Democrats living there. There are precincts in Sandpoint where Brad Little received ~70% of the vote and precincts in the "redoubt" parts of Bonner County where McGeachin received ~80% of the vote. There is a kind of coalition between moderate Republicans, who tend to be long-time residents, and Democrats, who tend to be children of hippies or hippies themselves, that has tried to fight back. It hasn't really worked.

At this stage, I expect that we'll see Democrats moving out of the Idaho panhandle. It's becoming too crowded, the newcomers are seriously uncivil maniacs who make for the worst possible neighbors. They are the right-wing equivalent of bomb-throwing antifa members. Old-timers in the region, however radical they might have been, had an understanding that north Idaho was once Democratic, that this was not inconsistent with being Idahoan. The newcomers insinuate that if you vote for Democrats, "you should go back to California" (insane maniac stuff - the Democrats in the panhandle are long-time residents!!).

Are there enough survivalist nuts for them to be a dominant voting bloc in Northern Idaho? Or is it just that even the non survivalists are hard right because it's a more welcoming region for right-wing extremism? Hard to think that there are enough survivalists for Kootenai County to vote for McGeachin solely on that basis.

There are an unfathomable number of nutjobs in Kootenai County. Not all of them are survivalists but, to an unusual extent, Republicans there have “drank the Kool-Aid”, worshipping guns as icons and humping police flags. I recall someone in my neighborhood turning his flag upside down after Biden was inaugurated. It is one thing for leftists to do this. By default, we are opposed to nationalism. When right-wingers do it, it is a sign of real brain-poisoning.

Another way of thinking about this: in the 2000s, Republicans in the area were Bush partisans of the flag-saluting orthodoxy. This new breed is far more likely to fly a police flag, a Gasden flag, a Trump banner or even a Confederate flag. They do not simply own guns, they have large AR-15 decals on their truck. They do not display any reverence for religion. They are openly confrontational to Democrats. In many ways, they remind me of the various progressive fruitcakes that I live around today who cling to masks and other performative gestures “in this house we believe in love and gays and minorities” vs. large gun dildo.

Basically, we have to contrast people who live an ideological lifestyle or who are part of an ideological subculture with people who are part of a demographic that is naturally represented by an ideology. By and large, the vast majority of Americans are the latter but there are small bubbles in certain neighborhoods where this is not so. Kootenai County is such a place for the Right, just as Portland is for the Left.

I'm currently writing a story set on a rural compound called "Redoubt Asgard", with the sorts of people and ideologies present in it that that name implies. Initially I was going to leave it unstated where exactly this place was, but I ended up placing it in the Idaho Panhandle within the first couple of pages.

[RI]

It's a real shame the Panhandle has gone this way as it's an absolutely beautiful region. Lake Pend Oreille is one of my favorite places, and Coeur d'Alene has a beautiful little downtown on the water.