This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Geoffrey Howe]

An equivalent to the similarly-named thread on the Labour Party for the internal developments of the Conservative Party.

Do post a good name for the thread.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Can we change the title to That Wretched Hive of Scum and Villainy?

What shall we change the Labour one to?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Since there is only one Conservative on the board this is just going to be a lot of Labourites telling everyone how much they hate the Tories, like literally every other thread.

Cassisus and I are quasi-Conservatives in our own way (and I don't think Conservatopia much likes them either); beesley isn't a Labourite and I'm sure the lefties can behave themselves.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Poll added.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Vengeful Dominic Cummings wants Rishi Sunak in No 10
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vengeful-dominic-cummings-wants-rishi-sunak-in-no-10-7kzbfcg7w


I haven’t come to a view on Rishi Sunak, other than that his much-vaunted suits are horrid. Plainly, the tough stuff is ahead of him; and I wouldn’t be surprised if he never goes ahead with his tax rises. Also, I’m not convinced of the merits of the furlough scheme — not that I don’t think we should be helping people in the pandemic; rather, it seems to me that we should protect people, not jobs.

I shall be closing the poll when I wake up on Monday.

[Geoffrey Howe]

So wretched hive of scum and villainy it is, then

The poll got the same number of votes (37) as the UK General Discussion. I locked it yesterday around 9 a.m.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes, I’d be happy to see Gavin Williamson gone.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Reshuffle rumours are hotting up.  Of course for now it's all just rumouring but it's interesting none the less.

Jenrick and Shapps are rumoured to be sacked but I reckon they stay on at least long enough to see through their projects (planning reform and GBR respectively).  Patel may or may not be demoted but that would be very risky for the PM.  Johnson (and Carrie) apparently want Javid to return, possibly in the Education brief.

Most people assume Williamson will be sacked (or at least demoted) but now some believe that as a result of being Chief Whip and Johnson's leadership campaign manager he may know where too many bodies are buried.  I say so what - it would be nice to see the PM show the right sort of balls for once.

I might be wrong but I also don't think anybody has accepted demotion from a great office of state in a while? (except for Hague's last hurrah as Leader of the House)

Well you know who did 

Jack Straw, if you don’t count Justice/Lord Chancellor.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/riseoftheredtories

A fascinating article from back in 2009. It seems Boris has taken on the mantle of this ideal more than Cameron. (Though, of course, I am not sanguine about his ability to implement it.)
In fact, the last thing David Cameron was is a Red Tory. "Radical social change" is about the least conservative thing I can think of.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The anger in the Torygraph continues:

Rishi Sunak must confiscate government's credit card, say Tory voters


Some interesting figures in there:

In your view, is the government doing enough to reduce levels of spending?
    34% No / 31% Yes
When trying to balance its finances, should the government rely on tax increases or spending cuts?
    Maintain tax rates 43% / Raise taxes 34% / Lower taxes 17%
Among those aware of the government's planning reforms, are you supportive?
    Supportive 34% / Oppose 19%
Is HS2 a bad investment / should it be scrapped?
    58% / 51%
Is the government doing enough to resist "cancel culture"?
     Not enough 74% / Enough 18%
Should the government ease travel restrictions?
     Yes 42% / No 39%
Should the Government ease restrictions for businesses?
      Yes 57% / No 17%

65% approve of the approach to COVID, 61% to the NHS; but this drops to 48% on crime and policing. It seems people are agitated by this.


Boris Johnson approval / disapproval:
      Approve 65% / Disapprove 17%
Rishi Sunak approval / disapproval:
      Approve 73% / Disapprove 8%

So the Chancellor is more popular than the PM amongst Tory voters.


For those who will scoff that Tories want to be like Herbert Hoover and balance the budget in one year, it's pretty clear, despite the headline, that there isn't overwhelming support for spending cuts. In my experience, many Tory voters (particularly wealthy ones) aren't so concerned about the size of the deficit or marginal increases in their tax rate; they are more concerned about (what they perceive as) runaway wasteful spending & a bloated and inefficient public sector. The feeling is that Boris is letting this happen, and announcing spending projects willy-nilly rather than being fiscally disciplined (which does not mean balancing the budget during a pandemic).

Heartening is that we don't take a GOP approach to tax cuts - over a third think we should raise taxes in order to counterbalance spending. Personally, I would be happy to see raises in capital gains tax. It was, after all, one Margaret Thatcher who raised the top rate of CGT to 40%, in line with income tax. The triple lock seems like madness too.




On 7 July there will be an election for Chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee. (Ministers and whips cannot vote.) It's between incumbent Graham Brady, who has been critical of the government over lockdown and should get the support of the rebellious right; and Heather Wheeler, a fairly loyal MP who should get the support of the more pro-lockdown types. So this should be a good test of feeling on the backbenches. The complication is that 107 of our MPs were elected in 2019 and have spent hardly any time in the House. They are apparently being courted by Wheeler. Brady is still the favourite.
I don't much like the modern right of the party, but I'm with Brady here out of frustration with the government.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Health is a poisoned chalice for Javid. Opening up will be the easy bit.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I missed it at the time so slightly old, but Graham Brady has been re-elected as Chairman of the 1922 Committee. Numbers have not been released, but apparently it was close; Boris and his allies seem very annoyed at Brady’s victory. PMs have always had slightly fraught relationships with backbenchers, but Boris’ contempt for Parliament and his own MPs - and how open he is about it - is more novel in this party I think. He is bringing it too close for my liking to a cult, and only wants to listen to people he likes or will tell him what he likes. This was the undoing of Mrs Thatcher. He should proceed cautiously.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Matthew Paris in The Times today with what's on every Tory's mind: the creeping leftism of our not so blue government.
More and more the consensus is that government should fix all life's glitches, as Parris puts it. Unfortunately, the Conservatives, from political expediency and lack of ideological conviction, are acquiescing.

Hauntingly, he writes: "Colleagues may write about the Tories’ wonderful talent for reinventing themselves, but to what purpose if we no longer believe in the ruling ideas that drove us? I used to argue that we needed a centre party. Could it be, though, that it’s a right-of-centre party we lack?"

Aged 19 I joined the Conservative Party because I believed in the free market, in Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand, and the quiet, patient but unstoppable power of price in regulating demand and stimulating supply. I believed that if you’re short of applicants for a job you raise the wage. I laughed at government attempts to control prices as a way of keeping down inflation. I knew you couldn’t buck the market. I did also know, as Adam Smith knew, that it’s not quite as simple as that. Conservatives accept that government has a role in ensuring free and fair competition, in underwriting standards, discouraging exploitation, protecting the environment, and sometimes in easing the shock of transition when market corrections in goods and labour bear too sharply on citizens.

But, underneath it all, a Conservative, or what used to be a Conservative, believes in the huge and in the end final power of supply and demand as accelerator or brake. We hear the socialist case for intervention and state control; we understand its force and its attraction; we accept that it will sometimes prove necessary; but our instinct, our default position, should be hands-off.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Jim Callaghan said forty years ago "there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a change in politics...there is a shift in what the public wants...I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher."

I feel we are at such an inflection point; but, induced by the pandemic, the sea-change points towards collectivism. It is in such times that a principled Conservative Party is most needed. Boris Johnson has been found sorely lacking.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm an armchair observer from overseas, obviously, and a left-wing one to boot, but it looks an awful lot to me like the Johnson government only seems "leftist" compared to the towering hard-right Thatcher legacy and the (overstated and mildly unfair) Blair-Brown reputation for capitulating to that legacy. I can't think of anything they've done that's made stateside news that would have been out of place for an early- or mid-twentieth-century Tory government, except maybe for some of the authoritarianism-adjacent policing/Home Office stuff.

The Home Office stuff is more bluster and bravado than anything really from what I can tell - hence why Patel's numbers are fairly poor amongst the base (obviously I'd rather keep it that way). They have made it more difficult to unilaterally remove statues but that's the least one would expect.

There is something to what you're saying on economic issues. Definitely from WW2 to 1975* we fell into a "Labour - 15%" approach and Boris is returning towards that. Of course that's partly because there is little appetite for economic liberalism these days. But I would take Harold Macmillan any day over this car-crash even if they hold fairly similar dirigiste economic views.

*Excepting 1970-1972, an oft-forgotten period of proto-Thatcherism, and genuinely a missed opportunity. Had Heath managed to stick to his guns I think the "Thatcher revolution" pursued ten years earlier would have been less painful.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Spotted in today's Torygraph:

SIR - The only reason I have not cancelled my membership of the Conservative Party is that I want to have a say in the election of the next leader.
The election cannot come too soon.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Torygraph now sending daily attacks on the PM's character - as if it hasn't been obvious for some time; but it is notable since they've traditionally gone down the "too Lefty" line.

Discontent is very much spread through all factions of the Party; it's difficult to identify a pro-Boris block - and the careerist element to his support is faltering for obvious reasons.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Peter Hitchens has decided Liz Truss is a "Lefty liberal".

She's probably too Thatcherite for his liking.

Definitely. Genuine traditionalist conservatives range from at best ambivalent about Thatcher (Roger Scruton) to outright hostile (Hitchens). Mind this was in an article saying she was no Thatcher despite her silly tank photo-op: I think it is a reference to her ironic family history with CND and Greenham Common.

Does Bonkers have any friends amongst the mainstream right?  Farage maybe although Farage would be too libertarian for Bonkers' self-described "British Gaullism".

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Not as far as I can tell. Actually the best historical example I can think of is Peter Shore, but he was Labour.

Good point - although Shore was a lot more leftwing on economic issues than Bonkers is today. Hitchens is actually probably the British political figure whose ideology is closest to mine, except he is non-interventionist in foreign policy I think.

Hitchens doesn't talk about economics much but insofar as I've heard him do so he moans about deindustrialisation and "wage slavery" which suggests he is fairly left-leaning.

[Geoffrey Howe]

99 rebels on vaccine passports, including Louie French, elected at the Bexley by-election; and Stephen Hammond, one of the 21 Brexit rebels all those years ago...