This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Alcibiades]

I suppose that Cummings’ attacks on Hancock have actually saved his position in the Cabinet, at least for now.

[Alcibiades]

Dominic Raab is retiring at the next election - leaving Esher and Walton open. Slim 2.7k Tory majority over the Lib Dems in 2019, after a concerted tactical vote campaign in 2019.

I’d be curious to see whether the tactical vote was anti-Tory, or anti-Raab.

It’s clearly the sort of area that would have significantly swung Lib Dem in 2019, but given how massive the swing was, the latter looks to have been very influential as well. Raab’s on the right wing of the Conservative Party, resigned as Brexit secretary because May’s deal was insufficiently hard Brexit, and appeared to have such poor personal skills that Harry Dunn’s parents (child killed by an American with ‘diplomatic immunity’) decided to actively endorse his Lib Dem opponent. Raab’s retirement should help the Conservatives hold on, though IIRC boundary changes are not good for them.

It voted almost 60% Remain, so it was always going to structurally give the Lib Dems a good result in 2019, though, yes, Raab’s odiousness made it even closer. That said, if anything close to the current polling holds, I very much struggle to see the Tories even keeping it close; it ought to be a pretty comfortable Lib Dem gain. You are right about the boundary changes — the seat is shrinking and losing its most Tory parts, namely Cobham (though this was still a Lib Dem gain at the locals!) and Oxshott, land of Chelsea players’ mansions, while retaining the most Lib Dem-friendly areas, such as Claygate, Molesey and the Dittons, which are pretty similar to neighbouring parts of Kingston and Twickenham.

[Alcibiades]

I just don't understand where all this funding is coming for think thanks who produce reports that no one ever reads. Like who thinks this is a good use of their money ?

I'm half tempted to set up a mock think tank - 'the Institute for Institutes' perhaps, or the Institute for Institutional Ideas' - but I worry that it's just not possible to actually parody these things effectively, as they are so absurd already.

I’m particularly fond of the name The Daily Mash likes to use for their mock expert quotes - the Institute for Studies.

[Alcibiades]

Stephen Hammond, MP for Wimbledon and one of the few of the 21 MPs who lost the whip in September 2019 to have been given it back and to have stood again as a Tory, has announced he is not standing again.  He only narrowly won and some calculations suggest his seat has already been notionally flipped to the Lib Dems by the boundary review.

He’s my local MP, but I’m hearing it from you for the first time. Can’t say I’m surprised; he’s always struck me as a loyal Party Man, but one who is ideologically very moderate and/or pragmatic, depending on your point of view, and I can’t imagine, given everything, that his heart is really in it any more.

[Alcibiades]

FWIW my money would still be on the Lib Dems. They dominated here at the most recent locals at the expense of both the Tories and Labour, winning two-thirds of council seats within the constituency. Also, unlike Two Cities or Finchley & Golders Green, they ran a popular local councillor in 2019 who is running again at the next general election, rather than a celebrity defector. It’s a very real possibility that Labour push the Tories into third place though.

[Alcibiades]

I have to say, this caught me out. I clearly haven’t been keeping close enough tabs on Tory internal drama, but I never really had Jenrick down as notably right-wing or as an immigration hardliner. Some sort of galaxy-brained careerist ploy in anticipation of a hard right candidate winning the leadership after the general election?

[Alcibiades]

The most shocking thing to me about this story is that Farage is somehow still only 60.