Democratic China

[Gustaf]

In the early days of the new millenium, China made a sudden transition to democracy, based on an American-styled federal system with all provinces, save Hong Kong and Macau forming states. In the initial mega-election of 2006 no one ran against the incumbent, president Hu Wintao. Instead most prominent politicians focused on getting themselves elected state-wide. Congress was dominated by four key factions: The Beijing faction, representing northern interests and federal power, closely allied to the president; the Shanghai faction, the most modern and market-oriented; the southern faction, mostly focused on Guangdong and the CHengdu-Chongqing axis, more representing rural interests.

With no formal party system developed most Congressmen represent business elite interests and broker deals without too much conflict. With the economy suddenly taking the hit that often follows rapid expansions the political climate change rapidly as the country heads into the midterms. A host of opposition candidates in many cases backed by trade unions and mminotiry groups enter congress in the 2008 midterms.

(more to come...)

[WMS]

Now this I'm interested in. Hopefully Dean (the Canadian one ) will show up and say something...

[Gustaf]

The enormous vote of misconfidence starts something of a panic among the establishement. Yin, the leader of the Sichuan faction in Congress is elected new Speaker, replacing a Beijing member allied to President Wintao. The factions, often referred to as the Gang of Four form a party which name is translated to English as "China United", sounding eerily like a football team. Much energy is devoted to ensuring that Wintao gets reelected without too much interference from the now gradually stronger opposition.

As it is still largely disorganized several opposition factions run their own candidates in local campaigns against Wintao. On election night 2010 the international community breaths a sigh of relief. With 53% of the popular vote and 70% of the electoral vote Wintao is easily reelected, sweeping the ethnically homogenous and affluent coastal provinces by large margins. The more sparsely populated Western states however, are carried by opposition candidates. And down-ballot more losses are inflicted on the CU, reducing their margin in the House and wiping it out completely in the senate.

In the coming months the opposition finally is able to organize under the name of CPP; China's People's Party. The urban and rural poor as well as minorities form the back-bone of the party, which is able to form a majority coalition in the senate. Their demands for social reforms to alleviate the acute poverty suffered by many Chinese and clearer protection for minority interests are met with cold indifference from most CU leaders. House Speaker Yin's attempts to mediate between the parties and bring forward compromises is viewed as treachery by many party stalwarts, especially a Shanghai-based caucus calling themselves "New China", which presses for market-orientated reforms. By the fall of 2011 government is almost completely dead-locked. The economy remains quite wrecked, with no one ready to fix it.

[Gustaf]

Now this I'm interested in. Hopefully Dean (the Canadian one ) will show up and say something...

The premise, China becoming a functioning democracy over-night, is obviously very, very ridiculous. The idea is to over-look that and try to make a realistic time-line from then on. Of course, anyone who knows more about China than me is welcome to step in.

[© tweed]

Would the CCP continue to call itself communist?  Or would a real Maoist party emerge, in opposition to the capitalnationalism of today's CCP?

[Gustaf]

Would the CCP continue to call itself communist?  Or would a real Maoist party emerge, in opposition to the capitalnationalism of today's CCP?

The CCP is abolished and a law prohibiting the use of that name is implemented. Basically, the CU under this scenario is the heir of the CCP, as it looks today. The CPP, on the other hand, forms a new sort of opposition with populist leanings. The situatino is similar to that of America one century ago. Now that I've had a reply I might as well continue the narrative...

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Towards the end of 2011, Speaker Yin schocks the country by declaring his immediate abandonment of the CU. He states that the party and the president has lost their focus on the issues important to the nation and that a working majority for reform must be established. After several weeks of confused discussions and indignant out-rage from CU leaders (including a failed CU attempt to oust Yin from the speaker position) he joins the CPP, which, with the support from the SIchuan faction, can take full control of Congress.

While most CU politicians take a cold attitude towards Yin, Vice President Chen adopts a more conciliatory attitude, talking about trying to keep the nation together in order to face the current crisis. The 2012 midterms becomes a final, crippling blow to the CU, giving the CPP heavy majorities in both Houses. The departure of Yin has helped to radicalize the congressional wing of the CU, leading to further stalemate between the parties.

[AN Y]

By "federal system", do you mean an FPTP electoral college like the one in the United States? That would make things less interesting than a PR system, for example. (Although, what would be the electoral threshold for a PR system, considering the fact that 0.1% equals more than a million people?)

On the other hand, a federal system does pose an interesting possibility for reunification with the Republic of China, and federalism is anyhow just about the only way China's huge population can be effectively represented.

[Gustaf]

By "federal system", do you mean an FPTP electoral college like the one in the United States? That would make things less interesting than a PR system, for example. (Although, what would be the electoral threshold for a PR system, considering the fact that 0.1% equals more than a million people?)

On the other hand, a federal system does pose an interesting possibility for reunification with the Republic of China, and federalism is anyhow just about the only way China's huge population can be effectively represented.

I mean the former. It would be the only way to make it work I suspect.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If China became a democracy, it would probably have to have a considerable degree of federalism, but there's no way they would use a US-style 1st past the post system. There would likely be many political parties including:

CCP
hard-core Maoists
ultra-nationalists
a liberal democratic party
parties advocating provincial or regional interests (ie a northern bloc, a southern bloc)
regionalist/secessionist parties, esp in places like Tibet and Xinjiang
a pro-capitalist, lazziez-faire party

each of which might well break apart into smaller factions

[pbrower2a]

Tibet? I don't believe that a democratic China would insist upon holding Tibet. Tibet would have to make certain arrangements to achieve independence: no state religion, no persecution of the Chinese minority, no alliance with any other country (especially India, Russia, Japan, or the United States)  without the consent of the "central" government of China...

 

[Bacon King]

more plz

[anvi]

One book I might recommend on this topic is a collection of essays by Daniel Bell called China's New Confucianism.  Bell teaches Poltical Science at Qinghua University in Beijing (the county's second-most prestigeous university.  One of his chapters in the book is about the contemporary Chinese political theorist Jiang Qing, who writes books about what form a coming Chinese democracy might take.  Jiang argues that such a government would be a democracy with a Confucian flavor, having a prime minister and a tri-partite legislative body, with an upper and lower house and a third house of "ru" or the best scholars in all sectors of society that would act as both an advisory arm and oversight body for the other branches of legislature and for the prime minister.  Pretty interesting stuff.  Also shows that scholars inside China are theorizing about Chinese democracy.