Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[Smash255]

New Jersey usually polls close early with a high number of undecideds.  These people do not even glance at the race until after Labor Day.   They then give each candidate some thought.  They usually break heavily for the Dems, but not always. 

When the polls in 2004 showed the race tight they were not wrong.  Polls are not predictors, they are a snapshot of how things look at that moment in time.  People laugh them off because Jersey currently tends to break strongly Dem, but it is not a universal truth.  NJ is one of the more thoughtful states when it comes to looking at candidates.

There were people on this site declaring that Kerry would take NJ by at least the same margin as Gore did and it would certainly not be closer than 12%.  In the end, Bush lost by 6.7%. 

You bring up a good point abut undecides breaking strongly for the Dems most of the time, and because of that the poll looks better for the GOp than the final result does.  Would like to add to that.  As you said it doesn't happen all the time (the strong break towards the Dems), but it does happen most of the time.  The exceptions to that tend to be when the GOp candidate is not well known early on (Whitman's 1st run, Franks in 2000), when the GOp candidate is well known those undecideds in those polls tend to break heavily towards the Dems, and kean is a pure example of the wll known kind.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Menendez=Corzine
Kean does not=Bush

Even NJ can see that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2/6 polls Kean has lead in. I don't think that is something to get excited about.

[DownWithTheLeft]

2/6 polls Kean has lead in. I don't think that is something to get excited about.

I'm pretty excited that polls don't mean as much as how corrupt Bob Menendez is and how it is killing him.  I read another story of his corruption every day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You talk about corruption, the republicans might lose the House due to the Abraholf scandle and that can spill over into these senate races.

[© tweed]

Kean does not=Bush

you're right.  He's even dumber!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Just searching around the see if I could find the results of the Rasmussen poll behind the wall for NJ and found this:

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8/31/93529/7345

Funny, I would use that website

But it says, for what it can be taken for, Kean is up 5, an 11 point swing from last month.  Add that to the 9 point swing in the Farliegh Dickinson poll and we what is shaping up to be a nightmare for Bob Menendez.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, 3/7 polls he still hasn't reached the 50% mark that you need to win by and it is still a tight race, 4-5 points isn't outside of a tight race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, 3/7 polls he still hasn't reached the 50% mark that you need to win by and it is still a tight race, 4-5 points isn't outside of a tight race.

Shows a turn and also shows how hypocritical you are.  Just as an example, you told people to change from Schwarzenegger to Angelides because the Field Poll had him up 1!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At that time, Angelidas was ahead in almost every poll Kean is not ahead in every poll. How hypocrital are you, when Granholm was ahead in all the polls except SV you said she is behind, and now Kean is ahead in all the polls except SV and you say he is ahead.

[DownWithTheLeft]

At that time, Angelidas was ahead in almost every poll Kean is not ahead in every poll. How hypocrital are you, when Granholm was ahead in all the polls except SV you said she is behind, and now Kean is ahead in all the polls except SV and you say he is ahead.

Because I unlike you, do not base everything on polls. 

Granholm=bad economy, -10 approval, pretty even in polls
Adv: DeVos

Menendez=Corzine buddy, -1 approval, losing major ground in polls, TKJ's father hasn't hit the trail, building scandal, Zelema Farber
Adv: Tom Kean Jr.

That is the difference, if you rely solely on polls like you do, then this is a Kean advantage.  And it isn't necessarily the poll margin, it's the poll swing, 11 in Rasmussen 7 in FDU

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The bad economy that Bush caused, and Corzine isn't on the ballot is he. And as long as Zogby and SV has him ahead, I will wait until the QU poll comes out before I have him ahead. And you go by Elliot, he hasn't changed NJ either.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The bad economy that Bush caused, and Corzine isn't on the ballot is he. And as long as Zogby and SV has him ahead, I will wait until the QU poll comes out before I have him ahead. And you go by Elliot, he hasn't changed NJ either.

I used his formula, and w/that poll Kean is now ahead.  Quinnipiac has Kean ahead, Zogby is a joke and Strategic Vision has a tossup.  If Kean had a D next to his name and Menendez an R, you would change this race in a heartbeat and tell everyone else to do so.

[DownWithTheLeft]

And if Kean can be tied to Bush other than the fact he is a Republican, I'd like to hear it.  If you can prove Menendez is not associated w/Corzine (who appointed so it impossible) then I will buy that argument.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Corzine isn't on the ballot. And you can't seem to get it, the republicans aren't associated to the Abrahoff scandle and they are about to lose the House. Al Gore was tied to Bill Clinton eventhough he didn't do the Monica Lewinsky scandle. If your party suffers, then you suffer. As far as Kean winning, Bush approval ratings are so low in the state, I don't think that will help Kean.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Corzine isn't on the ballot. And you can't seem to get it, the republicans aren't associated to the Abrahoff scandle and they are about to lose the House. Al Gore was tied to Bill Clinton eventhough he didn't do the Monica Lewinsky scandle. If your party suffers, then you suffer. As far as Kean winning, Bush approval ratings are so low in the state, I don't think that will help Kean.

Yes, of course, your clairvoyant again that knows the Dems are taking back the house.  Seriously, keep to your own standards, but of course you won't and that's why I am beginning to stop taking you seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that Bush net approval ratings in the state is a determining factor, and Corzine's approval ratings is still positive that is the difference. And the House republicans eventhough they don't have ties to the Abrahoff scandle are suffering. People won't take you seriously when you go by polls that have Kean up only in 3 out of 7 polls. And every prognosticator have the Dems taking back the House due to the Abrahoff scandle.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I said that Bush net approval ratings in the state is a determining factor, and Corzine's approval ratings is still positive that is the difference. And the House republicans eventhough they don't have ties to the Abrahoff scandle are suffering. People won't take you seriously when you go by polls that have Kean up only in 3 out of 7 polls. And every prognosticator have the Dems taking back the House due to the Abrahoff scandle.

First off, people don't take anyone seriously who bases everything on polls.  3 out 7 is about 50%, and I'm not basing my Kean winning prediction on polls.  But out of those 7, 2 are FDU, and 2 are Rasmussen, so eliminate the old polls from those companies and its 3 out of 5.  Corzine has a negative approval rating and is going to the way of Florio and McGreevey.  Tell me this, how many Democrats have won statewide in NJ since the corruption started in 2002, that didn't beat Doug Forrester?  The answer is none, unless you include Kerry who did much worse than Gore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not taking this poll company seriously when they showed like Keystone state a close race in 2004 and the race wasn't even close. They were consistently wrong in 2004 on the presidential race. And I said I will wait for QU to predict Kean the winner.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am not taking this poll company seriously when they showed like Keystone state a close race in 2004 and the race wasn't even close. They were consistently wrong in 2004 on the presidential race. And I said I will wait for QU to predict Kean the winner.

Ummm, QU is already predicting Kean the winner!!!!
And your ignoring the Rasmussen poll and all the scandals that come out by the day for Bob Menendez.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The new one hasn't come out yet.  I will wait for the debates to decide. But the scandles can just as easily hurt Menendez and the Abrahoff scandle can hurt republicans.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The new one hasn't come out yet.  I will wait for the debates to decide. But the scandles can just as easily hurt Menendez and the Abrahoff scandle can hurt republicans.

That quote is nothing short of misinformed and moronic.  What the hell connection does Tom Kean have to Jack Abramoff?  NONE

What scandals are being brought up against Menendez? COUNTLESS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that the Abrahoff scandle doesn't have to be directly tied to Kean it can hurt the republicans in general like it is hurting the republicans in the house and not all of them are directly tied.

[Gustaf]

Abramoff is old news. Whatever effect it had is already built into the current polls.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I said that the Abrahoff scandle doesn't have to be directly tied to Kean it can hurt the republicans in general like it is hurting the republicans in the house and not all of them are directly tied.

That's absolutley stupid, there is no way Kean will be brought down by Abramoff.  Menendez actually is engulfed in scandal, that is a big deal, Abramoff has about as much of a connection to Tom Kean Jr. as I do.