Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Fairleigh Dickinson University on 2006-08-27

Summary: D: 39%, R: 43%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[DownWithTheLeft]

Seven point swing from last month, Zelema Farber is finally catching up to Bob Menendez.  And that building, there is going to be an investigation.  My only question is, when do the Democrats replace him w/Codey to assure victory?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last Strategic Vision poll had it 42-40, this race is purly a tossup.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The last Strategic Vision poll had it 42-40, this race is purly a tossup.

For now, but if you look at it on a company by company basis, Kean is up month to month in most companies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was only up in 2 polls most polls have Menendez, this is one university poll, lets see what the other university has to say Reuters, and this poll is well within the margin of error so as long as it is the Dems are not going to replace him. If Menendez was down by 7 points  or 10 then he would be replaced.

[DownWithTheLeft]

He was only up in 2 polls most polls have Menendez, this is one university poll, lets see what the other university has to say Reuters, and this poll is well within the margin of error so as long as it is the Dems are not going to replace him. If Menendez was down by 7 points  or 10 then he would be replaced.

New scandals every day, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You can't count anyone out unless they reach 50%. You tend to count the Dems out when they are outside the margin of error but you don't count out Conrad Burns or Santorum who is outside the margin of error 7 point deficit for Burns and 9 point deficit for Santorum, and Tester and Casey has already reached the 50% they need to win by.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You can't count anyone out unless they reach 50%. You tend to count the Dems out when they are outside the margin of error but you don't count out Conrad Burns or Santorum who is outside the margin of error 7 point deficit for Burns and 9 point deficit for Santorum, and Tester and Casey has already reached the 50% they need to win by.

Ok, again I don't count Menendez out, I don't count any incumbents "out" until there down about 15 September or later.  I still think Burns will lose, but Santorum win.

[Tender Branson]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

It says Kean is dragged down by the war in Iraq. If this would not be the case he would lead Menendez by 6 or 7%.

I don´t know much about Kean. For me it seems he is a good candidate, a centrist and liberal on social issues.

Can someone give me an overview of him plz ?

[© tweed]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

Haha, ~40% is Menendez' ceiling? 

Remember what Vorlon said about uni polls not named Quinnipiac, boys and girls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*sees uni poll*

*throws in trash*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*burns it*

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

Haha, ~40% is Menendez' ceiling? 

Remember what Vorlon said about uni polls not named Quinnipiac, boys and girls.

Quinnipiac has Kean up too, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down b/c of all the scandals emerging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rasmussen and SV don't have him up we will see when the next QU comes out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Like I said the poll is within the margin of error of 3-4 points and I wouldn't count him out just yet. Let's see what Quinnipiac puts out.

I'm counting him out, I'm just saying Kean is the one with room to go up, Menendez has reached his ceiling.

It says Kean is dragged down by the war in Iraq. If this would not be the case he would lead Menendez by 6 or 7%.

I don´t know much about Kean. For me it seems he is a good candidate, a centrist and liberal on social issues.

Can someone give me an overview of him plz ?

http://tomkean.com/today/index.cfm?e=user.issues.overview

Foreign Policy:
Compares his war policy to McCain, we made mistakes but we can't call for a timetable

He says the UN can help, but we must stop the corruption there

Education:
Not much other than he supports AP classes

Ethics:
Believes corruption is the most important issue

Economy:
lower taxes, promote free trade, keep more of your own money

Health Care:
Against UHC, supports malpractice reform

Homeland Security:
Wants to give more money to NJ and improve communication between gov agencies

SS:
supports privitization

Social Issues:
He is pro-choice
Don't know about gay marriage

He is a moderate, but not a RINO, kind of like a Johnny Isakason.

[© tweed]

Quinnipiac has Kean up too, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down b/c of all the scandals emerging.

Quinnipiac hasn't done a poll in a month and a half.

And Menendez has plenty of room to go up.  He's polling in the low 40s in a state where Kerry got 52%.  Expect the Menendez vote to mirror the Kerry vote at the end of the day.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Quinnipiac has Kean up too, Bob Menendez has no where to go but down b/c of all the scandals emerging.

Quinnipiac hasn't done a poll in a month and a half.

And Menendez has plenty of room to go up.  He's polling in the low 40s in a state where Kerry got 52%.  Expect the Menendez vote to mirror the Kerry vote at the end of the day.

Considering the hatred of Bush in NJ the fact Kerry got 52% was awful.  Everyone seems to conviently leave out this is the first time a Republican other than Doug Forrester has run for statewide office since:

1.) Dems made illegal candidate switch
2.) Torricelli refused to run, but resign
3.) McGreevey stopped NJ from having a special election
4.) Corzine pushed Codey out of the way, showing the "machine"
5.) The budget debacle

And NJ has never voted for Bob Menendez statewide, he was an appointee of Jon Corzine.  That is a little bit stronger tie than Kean to Bush.  Kean is clean as a politician can be, and Menendez is having so much dug up on him.  Kean wins w/about 52%

[7,052,770]

Sounds good.  We're going to pick up 7 seats, get Kean in the Senate, get rid of Menendez, and control the Senate.  4 victories!

[© tweed]

Bush got a boost in 2004 from 9/11.  He wasn't "hated" two years ago.  But he is now, and his unpopularity is becoming hard for people such as DeWine and Talent to overcome in states far more friendly to Republicans than New Jersey.  This, of course, is the first statewide election in New Jersey since Bush's approvals dropped below 40% nationally.  Undecideds tend to break hard Dem in New Jersey, and therefore polls understate Dem leads.  Look to 2004 and 2005: a handful of polls had Bush winning in New Jersey, and Corzine was only up by a few in the days before the election.

I'm not saying Kean can't conceivably win, it's just decidedly unlikely.  And certainly the demographics of the state won't allow him to win 52-47% unless the GOP makes up major ground across the nation from where they are now.

[Giant Saguaro]

Kean +4, huh? Print it and it won't be worth the paper it's written on.

Doesn't NJ typically poll okay for the GOP until the closer it gets to election and it drifts more and more Dem. Think the joke in some circles is, if elections were held in July or June, Republicans could actually win state-wide races in NJ.

Also, wasn't this FD poll amazingly innacurate in 2004? Don't really remember, but someone was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was like the Keystone poll of PA, they showed Bush consistently ahead until October, and then Kerry was ahead.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This poll showed Menendez up 3 last month, 7 point swing.  I'm not that excited about the poll other than the fact that it shows Kean is at least dead even in the race.  The state of the national GOP should improve by November.

BTW, the last time a Senate race was held in NJ that did not include Doug Forrester, it was also pre-9/11 and in the bad GOP year of 2000, Bob Franks only lost to Corzine by 3 after being amazingly outspent.  The problem w/the NJ GOP in recent years isn't that their dead in the water, it's they they've had awful candidates.  When people like Christy Whitman and Tom Kean were running for office they won.  They when radical right-wingers like Schundler and idiots like Forrester ran (the only two since Franks), the GOP took a turn for the worse.  Tom Kean Jr. brings back to the NJ GOP the ideas and success of his father.  When his father hits the campaign trail, he'll get a boost.  Menendez has no boost b/c Corzine coming anywhere near him is as bad as Bush coming near Kean.  Kean is doing a great job of digging up dirt on Menendez and really being his ethics into question in a state where ethics is among the top issues.

The fact that "ethics" and "corruption" are top issues shows that NJ is fed up of the corruption of the Dem political machine headed by Corzine, Menendez and those types.  The Dem have gotten their shot in recent years (it wasn't until 01' they took back the governor's mansion and 03' the senate) and they have greatly blown it.  Now, in this first post-9/11, post-McGreevey, during scandals involving between Corzine and Menendez, this is the GOP's best pickup oppurtunity, and I would rate it ahead of the Dems taking MO at least.

[ATFFL]

New Jersey usually polls close early with a high number of undecideds.  These people do not even glance at the race until after Labor Day.   They then give each candidate some thought.  They usually break heavily for the Dems, but not always. 

When the polls in 2004 showed the race tight they were not wrong.  Polls are not predictors, they are a snapshot of how things look at that moment in time.  People laugh them off because Jersey currently tends to break strongly Dem, but it is not a universal truth.  NJ is one of the more thoughtful states when it comes to looking at candidates.

There were people on this site declaring that Kerry would take NJ by at least the same margin as Gore did and it would certainly not be closer than 12%.  In the end, Bush lost by 6.7%.