Fairleigh Dickinson University: Kean(R) has a leg up on Bob Menendez(D)

[DownWithTheLeft]

I just think that we can just disagree on ...NJ polls.

That is exactly what you said w/Monica Lewinsky thrown in the middle, you are John Kerry flip-flopping abilites.

Tom Kean has flipped flopped on social security and stem cells.

and immigration.

I seriously think Bob Menendez's corruption overshadows Kean changing his mind on a few issues, and he changed his opinion once, not Kerry or Olawakandi that change it w/the wind.

Come on conan, thought you were better than Olawankandi

[Alcon]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

[Conan]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

Only the stem cells and social security flip flops will. But to what you just said about "John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to" is precisely the reason Kean changed his position on those issues so he could secure some conservative support.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

Only the stem cells and social security flip flops will. But to what you just said about "John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to" is precisely the reason Kean changed his position on those issues so he could secure some conservative support.

Ok, the other one you might have had a slight point, but this one only has one answer:
Which will play a bigger role in the campaign?
a.) Tom Kean one time changing his mind
b.) Countless corruption scandals against Menendez and NJ Dems

Hmmmmm, B

[Conan]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

Only the stem cells and social security flip flops will. But to what you just said about "John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to" is precisely the reason Kean changed his position on those issues so he could secure some conservative support.

Ok, the other one you might have had a slight point, but this one only has one answer:
Which will play a bigger role in the campaign?
a.) Tom Kean one time changing his mind
b.) Countless corruption scandals against Menendez and NJ Dems

Hmmmmm, B

A because NJ advocates for the stances he used to have and the corruption scandals are either up for interpretation or cant be proven or taken out of context.

[Flying Dog]

Will this topic die already.

[Gustaf]

I will tell you one thing hadn't it been for Monica Al Gore would of been president and the Dems would of controlled the House.  Gore before Monica was leading Bush 5 points and after Monica he was trailing. And the republicans wouldn't have used it all of their ads if it didn't matter.

So why did you say that no one knows whether it affected 2000?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because all that poll seem to indicate was that people had Clinton fatigue and Gore was seen as an extention of Clinton's administration as a third term and no one knows if Monica Lewinsky contributed to that Clinton fatigue or not. The poll waas taken over a time span of a couple of years, and within that time frame, Monica Lewinsky could of helped contruted to Clinton fatigue or other factors could of contributed to Clinton fatigue like years he have been in office. And most people in that poll seem to indicate that Gore was seen as a third term of Clinton and people didn't want a third term of Clinton by a 28-72% of the vote.

[Gustaf]

Because all that poll seem to indicate was that people had Clinton fatigue and Gore was seen as an extention of Clinton's administration as a third term and no one knows if Monica Lewinsky contributed to that Clinton fatigue or not. The poll waas taken over a time span of a couple of years, and within that time frame, Monica Lewinsky could of helped contruted to Clinton fatigue or other factors could of contributed to Clinton fatigue like years he have been in office. And most people in that poll seem to indicate that Gore was seen as a third term of Clinton and people didn't want a third term of Clinton by a 28-72% of the vote.

So...which is it? You've said twice that no one can tell whether Lewinsky had an impact on the 2000 elections and several times that it did ("I can tell you one thing, if it hadn't been for Monica, Gore would have been president"). Once again, do you think before you post or just post whatever pops into your head? It is a legitimate question considering the fact that you are constantly contradicting yourself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I may have been conflicting in the past but I am clear now, that people had Clinton fatigue and whether or not it was contributing source of Monica Lewinsky I can't really tell. That is my position now and back then eventhough it seem that I was conflicted about it.  I just gave you evidence that support the ML arguement eventhough it wasn't definite.

[Gustaf]

I may have been conflicting in the past but I am clear now, that people had Clinton fatigue and whether or not it was contributing source of Monica Lewinsky I can't really tell. That is my position now and back then eventhough it seem that I was conflicted about it.  I just gave you evidence that support the ML arguement eventhough it wasn't definite.

"In the past"? We're talking yesterday...

[DownWithTheLeft]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

Only the stem cells and social security flip flops will. But to what you just said about "John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to" is precisely the reason Kean changed his position on those issues so he could secure some conservative support.

Ok, the other one you might have had a slight point, but this one only has one answer:
Which will play a bigger role in the campaign?
a.) Tom Kean one time changing his mind
b.) Countless corruption scandals against Menendez and NJ Dems

Hmmmmm, B

A because NJ advocates for the stances he used to have and the corruption scandals are either up for interpretation or cant be proven or taken out of context.

Wow, certainly makes me feel more confident, if the Dems are counting on that, this could be Kean pushing sixty.

[Conan]

This "flip-flop" crap is ridiculous.  Politicians change their minds.  It wasn't fair to use that against Kerry because of one poorly phrased quote, and it isn't fair for Democrats to now be using it against Republicans.

Flip-flopping is much different than changing your mind.  Tom Kean has slightly revised his views on a few issues, John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to.  A truly great politician changes when circumstances change.

Conan, do you really honestly think Tom Kean Jr. changing his opinion on those three subjects will have any effect on the election?

Only the stem cells and social security flip flops will. But to what you just said about "John Kerry changed his opinion w/the wind and depending on what polls said and who he was talking to" is precisely the reason Kean changed his position on those issues so he could secure some conservative support.

Ok, the other one you might have had a slight point, but this one only has one answer:
Which will play a bigger role in the campaign?
a.) Tom Kean one time changing his mind
b.) Countless corruption scandals against Menendez and NJ Dems

Hmmmmm, B

A because NJ advocates for the stances he used to have and the corruption scandals are either up for interpretation or cant be proven or taken out of context.

Wow, certainly makes me feel more confident, if the Dems are counting on that, this could be Kean pushing sixty.

Menendez will win 53-45

[Smash255]

all this talk about Menendez being corrupt yet no evidence or examples of Menendez actuually being corrupt.

Now I will ask, what has Menendez done that is corrupt?  Not someone he supported who turned out to be corrupt, but what has Menendez actually done that has been corrupt?  Examples please....  Not what did someone else do who Menendez was a supporter of, but what has Menendez actually done.

[DownWithTheLeft]

all this talk about Menendez being corrupt yet no evidence or examples of Menendez actuually being corrupt.

Now I will ask, what has Menendez done that is corrupt?  Not someone he supported who turned out to be corrupt, but what has Menendez actually done that has been corrupt?  Examples please....  Not what did someone else do who Menendez was a supporter of, but what has Menendez actually done.

Obviously you missed his "personal recommendation" of Zelema Farber.
Obviously you missed the building scandal
Obviously you missed the fact that he pushed helped push Codey out of the way, which hinders him among independents.

I give him about a 35% chance to win this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

4/8 polls and you say that Kean is going to win, I think this race is a tossup and until Kean has lead in all the polls, I wouldn't be confident about Kean winning.

[DownWithTheLeft]

4/8 polls and you say that Kean is going to win, I think this race is a tossup and until Kean has lead in all the polls, I wouldn't be confident about Kean winning.

He's up in every companies poll except for Strategic Vision (down 2) and AP (down 1), let's add it up.

Rasmussen +5
FDU +4
Quinnipiac +2
Strategic Vision -2
AP -1

Combined +8
Divided 5

1.6 Kean lead, yes I'm sure Menendez is still the favorite, plus these polls don't mean as much except for the swings which heavily favor Kean, he has improved in every companies poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You forgot Zogby +2 as well. Look as long as there is 17% undecided there is plenty of roam for Menendez to come up.

[Conan]

all this talk about Menendez being corrupt yet no evidence or examples of Menendez actuually being corrupt.

Now I will ask, what has Menendez done that is corrupt?  Not someone he supported who turned out to be corrupt, but what has Menendez actually done that has been corrupt?  Examples please....  Not what did someone else do who Menendez was a supporter of, but what has Menendez actually done.

Obviously you missed his "personal recommendation" of Zelema Farber.
Obviously you missed the building scandal
Obviously you missed the fact that he pushed helped push Codey out of the way, which hinders him among independents.

I give him about a 35% chance to win this race.

None of those suggest corruption. And according to those standards, many people you support would then be corrupt. Like Zulima Farber, many people do that all around the country and Corzine fired her. Cops do that all the time. Menendez probably isnt the only one who has a situation where federally funded businesses do business with them. Codey didnt want to run.

[Conan]

The guns are coming to town: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1157257937183140.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

"Other big names soon will follow. At least two possible GOP presidential contenders in 2008 -- Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- will also campaign for Kean this fall. And Menendez will stump with a pair of Democratic favorites, U.S. Sens. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Barack Obama of Illinois."

"Menendez has a hefty advantage in fundraising. The most recent campaign finance reports -- released in July -- showed Menendez with $7.4 million in the bank, compared with Kean's $2.3 million."

"The money gap is, at the end of the day, a pretty big deal," said Duffy, of the Cook Report. She also noted that New Jersey Republicans have created a buzz in the past, only to fizzle out as the campaign kicked into high gear. "Have we ever seen (national) Republicans put in the kind of money they need to win in New Jersey?"

Bill Clinton has also held fundraisers and will probably campaign.

[DownWithTheLeft]

all this talk about Menendez being corrupt yet no evidence or examples of Menendez actuually being corrupt.

Now I will ask, what has Menendez done that is corrupt?  Not someone he supported who turned out to be corrupt, but what has Menendez actually done that has been corrupt?  Examples please....  Not what did someone else do who Menendez was a supporter of, but what has Menendez actually done.

Obviously you missed his "personal recommendation" of Zelema Farber.
Obviously you missed the building scandal
Obviously you missed the fact that he pushed helped push Codey out of the way, which hinders him among independents.

I give him about a 35% chance to win this race.

None of those suggest corruption. And according to those standards, many people you support would then be corrupt. Like Zulima Farber, many people do that all around the country and Corzine fired her. Cops do that all the time. Menendez probably isnt the only one who has a situation where federally funded businesses do business with them. Codey didnt want to run.

I thought you were joking before, but now I am assured.  The building scandal doesn't mean corruption?  Codey didn't want to run?

Wow, this is hysterical

[DownWithTheLeft]

The guns are coming to town: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1157257937183140.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

"Other big names soon will follow. At least two possible GOP presidential contenders in 2008 -- Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- will also campaign for Kean this fall. And Menendez will stump with a pair of Democratic favorites, U.S. Sens. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Barack Obama of Illinois."

"Menendez has a hefty advantage in fundraising. The most recent campaign finance reports -- released in July -- showed Menendez with $7.4 million in the bank, compared with Kean's $2.3 million."

"The money gap is, at the end of the day, a pretty big deal," said Duffy, of the Cook Report. She also noted that New Jersey Republicans have created a buzz in the past, only to fizzle out as the campaign kicked into high gear. "Have we ever seen (national) Republicans put in the kind of money they need to win in New Jersey?"

Bill Clinton has also held fundraisers and will probably campaign.

Proves my point and helps Kean,

Kean is bringing in the moderates, McCain and Guilliani, both loved in NJ
Menendez is bringing in the far-lefties, Obama and Kennedy, this is some great news for Kean!

BTW, I'm meeting him tomorrow, how do you pronounce his name, I've heard K-ee-n like bean, and C-a-n-e, like candy cane?

[Conan]

all this talk about Menendez being corrupt yet no evidence or examples of Menendez actuually being corrupt.

Now I will ask, what has Menendez done that is corrupt?  Not someone he supported who turned out to be corrupt, but what has Menendez actually done that has been corrupt?  Examples please....  Not what did someone else do who Menendez was a supporter of, but what has Menendez actually done.

Obviously you missed his "personal recommendation" of Zelema Farber.
Obviously you missed the building scandal
Obviously you missed the fact that he pushed helped push Codey out of the way, which hinders him among independents.

I give him about a 35% chance to win this race.

None of those suggest corruption. And according to those standards, many people you support would then be corrupt. Like Zulima Farber, many people do that all around the country and Corzine fired her. Cops do that all the time. Menendez probably isnt the only one who has a situation where federally funded businesses do business with them. Codey didnt want to run.

I thought you were joking before, but now I am assured.  The building scandal doesn't mean corruption?  Codey didn't want to run?

Wow, this is hysterical

The building scandal does not mean corruption and it is not illegal either. Codey did not want to run, in fact he refused because of family reasons and being in Washington.

[ATFFL]

Bill Clinton has also held fundraisers and will probably campaign.

Well, this race is over.  Score one for the GOP as Kean picks this up.

(You familiar with the Clinton Curse?)