Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place (user search)
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  Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place (search mode)
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Author Topic: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place  (Read 1494 times)
dpmapper
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« on: May 18, 2021, 01:43:58 PM »
« edited: May 18, 2021, 05:51:01 PM by dpmapper »

It's relatively easy to draw a congressional district where whites are the 4th largest racial group.  I'm curious how far this can go, though.  So, a challenge: Draw a relatively compact congressional district where three minority groups all have at least 28% of the population by CVAP.  Can you hit 29%?  30%???

Alternative: Draw a congressional district where whites are in 4th place, and they trail the racial group that's in 3rd place by at least 18%.  How large can one make this difference?  
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dpmapper
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2021, 05:35:31 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.

I think this is harder than you think it is; do you care to demonstrate your solution?  To get to 28% Asian/Hispanic/Black you need <16% white.  For 30% you need <10% white.  Are there enough precincts where Asians are a large majority but whites aren't a significant minority? 
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dpmapper
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2021, 06:29:09 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.

I think this is harder than you think it is; do you care to demonstrate your solution?  To get to 28% Asian/Hispanic/Black you need <16% white.  For 30% you need <10% white.  Are there enough precincts where Asians are a large majority but whites aren't a significant minority? 



This doesn't perfectly adhere to your criteria, but it does have just 11% whites in 4th place with nearly twice as many Asians + whites still being 4th by CVAP.

Yes, I know you can get whites in 4th place in the Houston area -- but it's actually hitting the stated criteria that make this hard! 
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dpmapper
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Posts: 439
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2021, 09:11:00 PM »

Fairly sure this can be done in Houston without dramatic gerrymandering, possibly also in the L.A. suburbs, but it would be uglier.

Maybe Arizona if you MD-03 all the Native American reservations with majority-Hispanic border areas with majority-black or Asian areas of Phoenix?

This is also pretty obviously achievable in the Bay Area and NYC, the former could probably be done with a pretty normal looking East Bay district, but the latter would require something quite ugly looking. 

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC. 

I doubt there are enough black or Asian areas in Arizona to do this there.  I'm trying the East Bay right now; it might be possible, but it's not so easy to get large numbers of black voters without whites *and* still connect them down to Fremont.  What's the best you can do? 
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