Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place
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  Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place
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Author Topic: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place  (Read 1478 times)
dpmapper
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« on: May 18, 2021, 01:43:58 PM »
« edited: May 18, 2021, 05:51:01 PM by dpmapper »

It's relatively easy to draw a congressional district where whites are the 4th largest racial group.  I'm curious how far this can go, though.  So, a challenge: Draw a relatively compact congressional district where three minority groups all have at least 28% of the population by CVAP.  Can you hit 29%?  30%???

Alternative: Draw a congressional district where whites are in 4th place, and they trail the racial group that's in 3rd place by at least 18%.  How large can one make this difference?  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2021, 02:13:51 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 02:45:21 PM by Skill and Chance »

Fairly sure this can be done in Houston without dramatic gerrymandering, possibly also in the L.A. suburbs, but it would be uglier.

Maybe Arizona if you MD-03 all the Native American reservations with majority-Hispanic border areas with majority-black or Asian areas of Phoenix?

This is also pretty obviously achievable in the Bay Area and NYC, the former could probably be done with a pretty normal looking East Bay district, but the latter would require something quite ugly looking. 

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2021, 03:11:46 PM »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2021, 04:51:29 PM »

Los Angeles County, easy.
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2021, 04:52:37 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2021, 05:03:58 PM »

You could probably easily make this type of district by snaking through parts of pretty much every racially diverse big city.
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VAR
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2021, 05:27:55 PM »

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC.  

Nope, because most precincts in NoVA still have a substantial white population. For example, Loudoun County is 21% Asian, but most of them live in white-majority precincts.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2021, 05:29:47 PM »

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC.  

Nope, because most precincts in NoVA still have a substantial white population.

There's some precincts in East PWC with Hispanics/Blacks and relatively few whites but the Asians are more dispersed.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2021, 05:35:31 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.

I think this is harder than you think it is; do you care to demonstrate your solution?  To get to 28% Asian/Hispanic/Black you need <16% white.  For 30% you need <10% white.  Are there enough precincts where Asians are a large majority but whites aren't a significant minority? 
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2021, 05:58:13 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.

I think this is harder than you think it is; do you care to demonstrate your solution?  To get to 28% Asian/Hispanic/Black you need <16% white.  For 30% you need <10% white.  Are there enough precincts where Asians are a large majority but whites aren't a significant minority? 



This doesn't perfectly adhere to your criteria, but it does have just 11% whites in 4th place with nearly twice as many Asians + whites still being 4th by CVAP.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2021, 06:29:09 PM »

Fort bend county + parts of Harris will get you there fairly easily too.

I think this is harder than you think it is; do you care to demonstrate your solution?  To get to 28% Asian/Hispanic/Black you need <16% white.  For 30% you need <10% white.  Are there enough precincts where Asians are a large majority but whites aren't a significant minority? 



This doesn't perfectly adhere to your criteria, but it does have just 11% whites in 4th place with nearly twice as many Asians + whites still being 4th by CVAP.

Yes, I know you can get whites in 4th place in the Houston area -- but it's actually hitting the stated criteria that make this hard! 
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2021, 08:39:16 PM »

A district like this would be hard in DFW, given Asians reside overwhelmingly in White-majority precincts (similar to NoVa).
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dpmapper
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2021, 09:11:00 PM »

Fairly sure this can be done in Houston without dramatic gerrymandering, possibly also in the L.A. suburbs, but it would be uglier.

Maybe Arizona if you MD-03 all the Native American reservations with majority-Hispanic border areas with majority-black or Asian areas of Phoenix?

This is also pretty obviously achievable in the Bay Area and NYC, the former could probably be done with a pretty normal looking East Bay district, but the latter would require something quite ugly looking. 

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC. 

I doubt there are enough black or Asian areas in Arizona to do this there.  I'm trying the East Bay right now; it might be possible, but it's not so easy to get large numbers of black voters without whites *and* still connect them down to Fremont.  What's the best you can do? 
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2021, 09:38:49 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2021, 12:20:51 AM by The Community of Xi Guay Ong »

Fairly sure this can be done in Houston without dramatic gerrymandering, possibly also in the L.A. suburbs, but it would be uglier.

Maybe Arizona if you MD-03 all the Native American reservations with majority-Hispanic border areas with majority-black or Asian areas of Phoenix?

This is also pretty obviously achievable in the Bay Area and NYC, the former could probably be done with a pretty normal looking East Bay district, but the latter would require something quite ugly looking.  

2 longshot possibilities are VA with an I-95 district connecting the most Asian and Hispanic parts of NOVA to majority-black parts of Richmond and NC with a district connecting the Lumbee areas to the Research Triangle, though still I doubt the Native/Hispanic/Asian populations are large enough to make it work in NC.  

I doubt there are enough black or Asian areas in Arizona to do this there.  I'm trying the East Bay right now; it might be possible, but it's not so easy to get large numbers of black voters without whites *and* still connect them down to Fremont.  What's the best you can do?  

Idk if this is even possible with LAX. There just aren't enough black folks in the Metro of Angels for a contiguous 28-28-28-10 district.



edit: I stand corrected, this contiguous district is 37.2-28.2-28.4-6.5. I would've preferred to lump Compton + Inglewood together with Torrance + Long Beach and/or Fullerton + Garden Grove, but the racial math just doesn't work out.

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Storr
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2021, 06:37:08 PM »

This may be possible if in the East Bay region if you connect Oakland with San Jose. I'll post any (likely horrendously grotesque looking) updates.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2021, 10:20:09 PM »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.

Bronx, Schmonx. Queens is where it's at. Here's a map located exclusively in Queens, and pretty compact, too. The hardest part was balancing the different minority groups, although Queens does have a fair number of diverse neighborhoods with multiple minority groups present and few white people, which is really essential to getting this done. Neighborhoods like Flushing and SE Queens that are heavily one minority group and then have a residual 5-10% white population were more of a hindrance.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46832906-934b-48c3-98fe-07d392479f6b

5.0% white, 31.5% Hispanic, 30.4% black, 30.9% Asian. Didn't try to min-max more than needed, but for what it's worth I first drew a qualifying district that was more than 250,000 overpopulated and then shrunk it down. You should even be able to draw two such districts in NYC without going too crazy.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2021, 10:20:50 PM »

This may be possible if in the East Bay region if you connect Oakland with San Jose. I'll post any (likely horrendously grotesque looking) updates.

Something along I-880 and I-80 would probably work.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2021, 11:44:23 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2021, 12:01:16 AM by Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.

Bronx, Schmonx. Queens is where it's at. Here's a map located exclusively in Queens, and pretty compact, too. The hardest part was balancing the different minority groups, although Queens does have a fair number of diverse neighborhoods with multiple minority groups present and few white people, which is really essential to getting this done. Neighborhoods like Flushing and SE Queens that are heavily one minority group and then have a residual 5-10% white population were more of a hindrance.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46832906-934b-48c3-98fe-07d392479f6b

5.0% white, 31.5% Hispanic, 30.4% black, 30.9% Asian. Didn't try to min-max more than needed, but for what it's worth I first drew a qualifying district that was more than 250,000 overpopulated and then shrunk it down. You should even be able to draw two such districts in NYC without going too crazy.
I drew a fairly similar district that was 9% white the other day, but it had all of Corona and was farther west and north.
In any case in your map it should be easy enough to make a second such district in Brooklyn, perhaps even a third such district in the Bronx?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2021, 11:48:40 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2021, 12:16:21 AM by The Community of Xi Guay Ong »

This may be possible if in the East Bay region if you connect Oakland with San Jose. I'll post any (likely horrendously grotesque looking) updates.

Something along I-880 and I-80 would probably work.

Probably can't be done for the Bay Area; there aren't enough plurality/majority black areas between Richmond and Oakland to get over 19% or so. But if anyone wants to prove me wrong, be my guest.

I managed to get a South Central LAX-Compton-Torrance-Long Beach-Cerritos-Westminster district that's 28.5% Black, 28.4% Asian, and 9.7% Non-Hispanic White. This version completely bypasses downtown LA, and it makes more sense to draw an Inglewood + Long Beach district than an Inglewood + Alhambra one.



It's hard not only because so much of LA County is majority/plurality Mexican, but also because the various Asian-heavy suburbs are far from each other and tend to have a lot of White and/or Latino residents. Long Beach having a lot of super-diverse precincts doesn't help when you're trying to draw a district that's <10% White haha.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2021, 10:21:00 AM »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.

Bronx, Schmonx. Queens is where it's at. Here's a map located exclusively in Queens, and pretty compact, too. The hardest part was balancing the different minority groups, although Queens does have a fair number of diverse neighborhoods with multiple minority groups present and few white people, which is really essential to getting this done. Neighborhoods like Flushing and SE Queens that are heavily one minority group and then have a residual 5-10% white population were more of a hindrance.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46832906-934b-48c3-98fe-07d392479f6b

5.0% white, 31.5% Hispanic, 30.4% black, 30.9% Asian. Didn't try to min-max more than needed, but for what it's worth I first drew a qualifying district that was more than 250,000 overpopulated and then shrunk it down. You should even be able to draw two such districts in NYC without going too crazy.
I drew a fairly similar district that was 9% white the other day, but it had all of Corona and was farther west and north.
In any case in your map it should be easy enough to make a second such district in Brooklyn, perhaps even a third such district in the Bronx?

The challenge is that there may not be enough Asians elsewhere. The Bronx doesn't anywhere close to enough Asians and would at least need to dip into Queens. Brooklyn does have a larger Asian population, but still in neighborhoods that have large white residual populations, as in NE Queens (and not as in neighborhoods with large black/Hispanic populations, like Elmhurst or Queens Village or Richmond Hill), and still less than Queens.
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2021, 12:51:15 PM »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.

Bronx, Schmonx. Queens is where it's at. Here's a map located exclusively in Queens, and pretty compact, too. The hardest part was balancing the different minority groups, although Queens does have a fair number of diverse neighborhoods with multiple minority groups present and few white people, which is really essential to getting this done. Neighborhoods like Flushing and SE Queens that are heavily one minority group and then have a residual 5-10% white population were more of a hindrance.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46832906-934b-48c3-98fe-07d392479f6b

5.0% white, 31.5% Hispanic, 30.4% black, 30.9% Asian. Didn't try to min-max more than needed, but for what it's worth I first drew a qualifying district that was more than 250,000 overpopulated and then shrunk it down. You should even be able to draw two such districts in NYC without going too crazy.
I drew a fairly similar district that was 9% white the other day, but it had all of Corona and was farther west and north.
In any case in your map it should be easy enough to make a second such district in Brooklyn, perhaps even a third such district in the Bronx?

The challenge is that there may not be enough Asians elsewhere. The Bronx doesn't anywhere close to enough Asians and would at least need to dip into Queens. Brooklyn does have a larger Asian population, but still in neighborhoods that have large white residual populations, as in NE Queens (and not as in neighborhoods with large black/Hispanic populations, like Elmhurst or Queens Village or Richmond Hill), and still less than Queens.
Ah, true. While I still think 3 districts with whites in fourth place should be possible, it is definitely not easy by any means.
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2021, 04:38:57 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2021, 05:14:59 PM by America needs Fred Phelps »

Decided to try this for myself since khuzifenq mentioned it in the CA redistricting thread.



Managed a 33.2-30.4-30.4-6.3 Inglewood-626 district.


Edit: Got curious how hard it is to draw a map with Whites in 5th.

Answer: not that hard at all.



This one is for VAP.


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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2021, 11:51:51 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2021, 11:56:16 PM by Tintrlvr »

New York should be doable by 1) connecting Flushing to the Bronx or 2) connecting Asian/Hispanic neighborhood in Brooklyn with African-American neighborhoods using parks to do most of the bridging across white neighborhoods or 3) south Queens.

It could also be possible in NJ by connecting Asian populations in Edison and Woodbridge with New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Carteret, and Newark.

Bronx, Schmonx. Queens is where it's at. Here's a map located exclusively in Queens, and pretty compact, too. The hardest part was balancing the different minority groups, although Queens does have a fair number of diverse neighborhoods with multiple minority groups present and few white people, which is really essential to getting this done. Neighborhoods like Flushing and SE Queens that are heavily one minority group and then have a residual 5-10% white population were more of a hindrance.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46832906-934b-48c3-98fe-07d392479f6b

5.0% white, 31.5% Hispanic, 30.4% black, 30.9% Asian. Didn't try to min-max more than needed, but for what it's worth I first drew a qualifying district that was more than 250,000 overpopulated and then shrunk it down. You should even be able to draw two such districts in NYC without going too crazy.

For what it's worth, now on 2020 Census figures my old map doesn't quite work (black population drops below 30%, and also it's oversized by about 23,000 people), but I fixed it and on the link it should still be functional.

Census figures actually made it more compact; I just dropped part of the arm out to Asian and Hispanic areas of Jackson Heights and added a few more heavily black precincts in SE Queens. Now 4.2% white, 31.1% Hispanic, 30.3%  black, 32.6% Asian (and 3.4% Native; a relatively high number of Hispanics in NYC in particular may have identified as Native on the Census, and if you did it right maybe you could get whites in 5th! New challenge).
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leecannon
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2021, 06:51:26 AM »

So I have maps for random personal projects and I just happened to make a map that was 1.5% white. There are more native americans then white people. I made this map a few weeks ago and just realized it. If you just added more Asians white's would almost be in last...



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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2021, 03:08:40 PM »

So I have maps for random personal projects and I just happened to make a map that was 1.5% white. There are more native americans then white people. I made this map a few weeks ago and just realized it. If you just added more Asians white's would almost be in last...



TBF A large amount of those Native Americans are Elizabeth Warren-style white people, as Dave's Redistricting App includes all American Indians, alone or in combination

However this doesn't take away from your achievement, nicely done!
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