BREAKING: Roe v. Wade might be overruled or severely weakened by SCOTUS

[I’m not Stu]

The Mississippi 15 week abortion case will be heard by SCOTUS. Although John Roberts opposes abortion, I would guess he voted to deny cert to avoid the spotlight.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1394288613471424517

[I’m not Stu]

I'm fine with constitutional concealed carry and don't even see why that's controversial but overturning Roe would be pretty despicable. Probably gonna happen though.

There are also probably five votes for fetal personhood if such a case is heard. A hypothetical case on fetal personhood would probably be 5-4 with Roberts dissenting.

[I’m not Stu]

I’m guessing Roberts wanted to wait after the 2022 midterm before hearing a major abortion case.

[I’m not Stu]

I also believe Roberts would want to wait for a circuit split to hear such a case.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

Yes, it is. I seem to think Roberts voted to deny cert in a failed attempt to avoid boosting Democratic turnout.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

And the women unable to get abortions in the meantime are just collateral damage?

Which will do more long-term damage to the country? A few months of abortion being harder to get, or Republicans winning big in 2022?

Surely after 2010 we should all know the answer by now.

If Roe v. Wade is overturned, what will happen? Do the states all revert to their original abortion laws?

Basically, yes. Some states have "trigger laws" banning abortion that instantly go into effect if it is ever overturned.

I think the GOP winning big does more long-term damage to the country.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

And the women unable to get abortions in the meantime are just collateral damage?

Which will do more long-term damage to the country? A few months of abortion being harder to get, or Republicans winning big in 2022?

Surely after 2010 we should all know the answer by now.

It's going to be a lot longer than 3 months. It's not like a 55-47 senate or whatever can just overrule a Supreme Court decision. It will be years if not decades before abortion has a chance to become legal in every state again,  basically waiting to appoint enough justices to the Supreme Court who are willing to reverse the new precedent and getting the right case in front of them.

I think every conservative justice except Roberts also supports fetal personhood.

[I’m not Stu]

The chief justice will look like an 1d10t with egg on his face.

[I’m not Stu]

Wouldn’t it just permit states to ban it at 15 weeks if they rule this constitutional

It depends on how broad the decision is.

[I’m not Stu]

I think cert was granted because there were already four votes to hear the case with Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Barrett. It’s possible Kavanaugh could have been the sixth vote to deny cert if Ginsburg were still alive.

[I’m not Stu]

I think cert was granted because there were already four votes to hear the case with Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Barrett. It’s possible Kavanaugh could have been the sixth vote to deny cert if Ginsburg were still alive.

Would Kavanaugh becoming a feminist icon as the deciding vote to uphold Roe be the most ironic twist in American political history?

I didn’t mean that. I meant he might have been a sixth vote to deny cert just to avoid hearing an abortion case for now.

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

I don’t see why that would happen. Most women who get abortions don’t have the economic resources to move to a new state on a whim, and those who do could just as easily drive or take a train to the nearest legal abortion state if they really wanted to get one.

Remember that Georgia passed a law to make it illegal to leave the state to get an abortion.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

And the women unable to get abortions in the meantime are just collateral damage?

But people keep on telling me that abortion bans have no affect on the rate of abortion!

If you want to be precise, rich women who want to get an abortion will get an abortion by travelling to California/Canada for the weekend (your pick) and paying out of pocket; while poor women will just have to suck it up and raise the child (or put him up for adoption, or do a dangerous illegal abortion)

Wrong. If a woman leaves Georgia to get an abortion in Virginia (the closest state with legal abortion), the woman can be charged with a crime.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1125857619191660544

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

I don’t see why that would happen. Most women who get abortions don’t have the economic resources to move to a new state on a whim, and those who do could just as easily drive or take a train to the nearest legal abortion state if they really wanted to get one.

Remember that Georgia passed a law to make it illegal to leave the state to get an abortion.

I can’t imagine how a state would enforce that.

I don’t see why that would happen. Most women who get abortions don’t have the economic resources to move to a new state on a whim, and those who do could just as easily drive or take a train to the nearest legal abortion state if they really wanted to get one.

And risk getting fired from their jobs for absenteeism in their convalescence and recovery from the procedure?

Most people are able to take a few days off of work.

Georgia would ask for extradition if the woman is still out of state. If not, authorities might suspect a terminated pregnancy.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

And the women unable to get abortions in the meantime are just collateral damage?

But people keep on telling me that abortion bans have no affect on the rate of abortion!

If you want to be precise, rich women who want to get an abortion will get an abortion by travelling to California/Canada for the weekend (your pick) and paying out of pocket; while poor women will just have to suck it up and raise the child (or put him up for adoption, or do a dangerous illegal abortion)

Wrong. If a woman leaves Georgia to get an abortion in Virginia (the closest state with legal abortion), the woman can be charged with a crime.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1125857619191660544

I'm fairly sure this violates freedom of movement

I know that it does. Georgia’s government doesn’t care. I think the state would also illegally spy on confidential health records to find pregnancies.

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

I don’t see why that would happen. Most women who get abortions don’t have the economic resources to move to a new state on a whim, and those who do could just as easily drive or take a train to the nearest legal abortion state if they really wanted to get one.

Remember that Georgia passed a law to make it illegal to leave the state to get an abortion.

I can’t imagine how a state would enforce that.

I don’t see why that would happen. Most women who get abortions don’t have the economic resources to move to a new state on a whim, and those who do could just as easily drive or take a train to the nearest legal abortion state if they really wanted to get one.

And risk getting fired from their jobs for absenteeism in their convalescence and recovery from the procedure?

Most people are able to take a few days off of work.

Georgia would ask for extradition if the woman is still out of state. If not, authorities might suspect a terminated pregnancy.

Showing my ignorance here, but can you be charged with a crime for doing something that’s legal in the state you’re in? If you live in a state where gambling is illegal, but you go to an Indian Reservation to go to a casino, your home state can’t prosecute you, can they?

Georgia would try to prosecute anyway.

[I’m not Stu]

I can imagine Georgia erecting checkpoints for pregnant women.

[I’m not Stu]

GA HB481 was ruled unconstitutional last year.

It will be appealed.

[I’m not Stu]

GA HB481 was ruled unconstitutional last year.

Also, the 11th Circuit is very conservative. I would expect an initial en banc hearing.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm honestly increasingly beginning to believe this is a good thing. It would drive D turnout up and R turnout down for the midterms.

And the women unable to get abortions in the meantime are just collateral damage?

But people keep on telling me that abortion bans have no affect on the rate of abortion!

If you want to be precise, rich women who want to get an abortion will get an abortion by travelling to California/Canada for the weekend (your pick) and paying out of pocket; while poor women will just have to suck it up and raise the child (or put him up for adoption, or do a dangerous illegal abortion)

Wrong. If a woman leaves Georgia to get an abortion in Virginia (the closest state with legal abortion), the woman can be charged with a crime.

Yeah... that wouldn’t hold up in court even if SCOTUS fully overturned Roe.

This SCOTUS would uphold it 5-4.

[I’m not Stu]

Why are people responding seriously to erm64man’s ridiculous claims?

It isn’t hyperbole. I have even taken healthcare law and business law classes in school. Don’t underestimate the GOP.

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

They will also be searching for expectant mothers who left the state.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm not great on the legalese surrounding Roe and Casey, but it seems like the best the pro-lifers can hope for here is not to allow states to outright ban abortion, and certainly not to outright ban abortion nation-wide, but to allow for Mississippi's 15 week timeframe. I don't see what legal justification they could give for that that wasn't "we don't like abortion, so 15 weeks is cool, we guess." Is there an actual specific constitutional question that's being looked at here?

Also, if anyone is familiar with the Mississippi law, how do they determine 15 weeks as a limit when dates of conception are notoriously hard to establish? Is it based on development of the fetus, or just a "best guess"? If the latter, seems like it's already on shaky ground to begin with and women could just say "yeah, I'm only 14 weeks pregnant" for edge cases.

SCOTUS could potentially rule that all pre-viability bans are legal.

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

Did you get that from your health law class?

No. I got the idea of states illegally spying on health records to track pregnancies. That is a breach of privacy under federal law.