BREAKING: Roe v. Wade might be overruled or severely weakened by SCOTUS

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

They will also be searching for expectant mothers who left the state.

[Crumpets]

I'm not great on the legalese surrounding Roe and Casey, but it seems like the best the pro-lifers can hope for here is not to allow states to outright ban abortion, and certainly not to outright ban abortion nation-wide, but to allow for Mississippi's 15 week timeframe. I don't see what legal justification they could give for that that wasn't "we don't like abortion, so 15 weeks is cool, we guess." Is there an actual specific constitutional question that's being looked at here?

Also, if anyone is familiar with the Mississippi law, how do they determine 15 weeks as a limit when dates of conception are notoriously hard to establish? Is it based on development of the fetus, or just a "best guess"? If the latter, seems like it's already on shaky ground to begin with and women could just say "yeah, I'm only 14 weeks pregnant" for edge cases.

[I’m not Stu]

I'm not great on the legalese surrounding Roe and Casey, but it seems like the best the pro-lifers can hope for here is not to allow states to outright ban abortion, and certainly not to outright ban abortion nation-wide, but to allow for Mississippi's 15 week timeframe. I don't see what legal justification they could give for that that wasn't "we don't like abortion, so 15 weeks is cool, we guess." Is there an actual specific constitutional question that's being looked at here?

Also, if anyone is familiar with the Mississippi law, how do they determine 15 weeks as a limit when dates of conception are notoriously hard to establish? Is it based on development of the fetus, or just a "best guess"? If the latter, seems like it's already on shaky ground to begin with and women could just say "yeah, I'm only 14 weeks pregnant" for edge cases.

SCOTUS could potentially rule that all pre-viability bans are legal.

[7,052,770]

I'm not great on the legalese surrounding Roe and Casey, but it seems like the best the pro-lifers can hope for here is not to allow states to outright ban abortion, and certainly not to outright ban abortion nation-wide, but to allow for Mississippi's 15 week timeframe. I don't see what legal justification they could give for that that wasn't "we don't like abortion, so 15 weeks is cool, we guess." Is there an actual specific constitutional question that's being looked at here?

Also, if anyone is familiar with the Mississippi law, how do they determine 15 weeks as a limit when dates of conception are notoriously hard to establish? Is it based on development of the fetus, or just a "best guess"? If the latter, seems like it's already on shaky ground to begin with and women could just say "yeah, I'm only 14 weeks pregnant" for edge cases.

My understanding is that it's by the best professional judgment of the doctors at the only remaining clinic in Mississippi, and that clinic lives on pins and needles of getting shut down over a technicality at any moment and doesn't push it.

[Person Man]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

[SteveRogers]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

Did you get that from your health law class?

[I’m not Stu]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

Did you get that from your health law class?

No. I got the idea of states illegally spying on health records to track pregnancies. That is a breach of privacy under federal law.

[Person Man]

I think you would see mass mobilisation of pro-choice Americans and a mass drain of demographic and economic drain from states where there would be default anti-choice legislation.

So, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa are doomed economically?

I think states with punitive abortion law will see both economic boycotts and a drain of young people. Women have much more social mobility than they did pre Roe.

'Big Pro-Life' is well connected and powerful but it is not popular. Repealing Roe ends the grift.

Watch for Handmaid-Red States to start taking action on that front. "Tried to leave the state for an abortion? Now you're a felon and can't leave the state." (I'm not saying it will be effective, but they'll try.)

And if they leave, do you think they will try to kidnap people?

Yes. I think Georgia will try to abduct people if the blue state refuses to extradite.

Did you get that from your health law class?

This isn’t Health Law. It’s Constitutional, Civil Procedure, Criminal, and Family Law. And at least two of them might not matter anymore in a years’ time.

[I’m not Stu]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

[Person Man]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

Then there may need to be a public service campaign to tell people that they are not safe if they have a doctor in Georgia.

[I’m not Stu]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

Then there may need to be a public service campaign to tell people that they are not safe if they have a doctor in Georgia.

Georgia would go after people with a doctor from another state.

[Person Man]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

Then there may need to be a public service campaign to tell people that they are not safe if they have a doctor in Georgia.

Georgia would go after people with a doctor from another state.

Just for having a doctor? Even men?

[I’m not Stu]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

Then there may need to be a public service campaign to tell people that they are not safe if they have a doctor in Georgia.

Georgia would go after people with a doctor from another state.

Just for having a doctor? Even men?

Yes, even for men because husbands might want to help women who need an abortion. Roe v. Wade is toast.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1394341643172581376

[Person Man]

What do you think the abortion map will look like the first cycle after Dobbs v. Jackson?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Fetal personality is a ludicrous position to take. Can you talk to a fetus? Can it eat? Can it work and pay taxes? Does it observe a culture? Can it vote? Can it drive a car? No sane person would say that fetuses have personalities, or by extension, that they are people. The concept of life beginning with insemination is an oversimplified and reductionist view that ignores all of what makes humans, human.

As a corollary, intransigent, state-sponsored denial of family planning tools and contraceptives amounts to undermining bodily integrity. It violates the sovereignty of the person who already exists. Abortion is a necessary tool to abrogate at least some suffering among people who already exist. It should be solemnly carried out in clean, safe, regulated, easily available facilities.

Nobody seeks out an abortion for an abortion’s sake, due to the invasiveness of the procedure, but if they elect to take that option, it should be available.

TIL I did not have a personality until age 23.   Might explain some things about my life.

[7,052,770]

What do you think the abortion map will look like the first cycle after Dobbs v. Jackson?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures#Party_summary

Possible exceptions are Pennsylvania and Michigan, and with the obvious caveat that the map could change if state legislative control changes. But expect every Republican legislature to ban up to the extent allowed.

[Vespucci]

Georgia might violate the guidelines on confidentiality.

Then there may need to be a public service campaign to tell people that they are not safe if they have a doctor in Georgia.

Georgia would go after people with a doctor from another state.

Just for having a doctor? Even men?

Yes, even for men because husbands might want to help women who need an abortion. Roe v. Wade is toast.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1394341643172581376

“Roe is toast” does not logically lead to “Georgia will become an authoritarian police state to prevent abortions”.

[President Johnson]

What do you think the abortion map will look like the first cycle after Dobbs v. Jackson?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures#Party_summary

Possible exceptions are Pennsylvania and Michigan, and with the obvious caveat that the map could change if state legislative control changes. But expect every Republican legislature to ban up to the extent allowed.

Wouldn't Whitmer, Wolf and Evers just veto an abortion ban? As far as I know, Republicans don't have the votes to override the vetos. That may not be the case in Kansas or Kentucky though. In Louisiana, I assume JBE would approve such a bill.

[I’m not Stu]

What do you think the abortion map will look like the first cycle after Dobbs v. Jackson?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures#Party_summary

Possible exceptions are Pennsylvania and Michigan, and with the obvious caveat that the map could change if state legislative control changes. But expect every Republican legislature to ban up to the extent allowed.

Wouldn't Whitmer, Wolf and Evers just veto an abortion ban? As far as I know, Republicans don't have the votes to override the vetos. That may not be the case in Kansas or Kentucky though. In Louisiana, I assume JBE would approve such a bill.

In Kentucky, vetoes are overridden by a simple majority.

[politicallefty]

It won't really be the end of Roe v. Wade. That's been pretty much gone for a long time now. Planned Parenthood v. Casey is really the current controlling precedent. But this will be the end of that as well. It's just a matter as to how far they're willing to go. I expect the Fifth Circuit to overturned and Mississippi's law to be upheld. I don't expect them to really consider topics like spousal notification, parental consent/notification, or waiting periods. The undue burden standard for abortions prior to viability is going to be overturned. I expected this from the current composition of the Court, but not this soon.

[brucejoel99]

I realize that it's already too late to prevent this thread from turning into a multi-page dumpster-fire of ERM's speculation (let alone speculation concerning actual nuanced strategies which the various justices may very well be considering here), but something important to keep in mind would be the fact that SCOTUS only granted cert on just a single question:

Whether all pre-viability prohibitions on elective abortion are unconstitutional?

This question is important to keep in mind because it doesn't really enable the Court to overturn any of its relevant precedent so much as to utilize this case to clarify what they consider to be a "substantial obstacle."

[I’m not Stu]

There are likely five votes to overrule these cases too, even if John Roberts votes not to.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1394349096597692431

[politicallefty]

There are likely five votes to overrule these cases too, even if John Roberts votes not to.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1394349096597692431

Please hop in the shower or something so you can extinguish the fire on top of your head.

I would agree that Griswold could be at risk, but there's nothing in the pipeline that I know of that attacks that decision. Most issues regarding birth control have to do with religious exemptions to government mandates. At worst, the decision will be chipped away, not explicitly overruled.

Lawrence and Obergefell are pretty safe I think as well. Once again, this would require a case to appear before the Court. It's hard to see how Lawrence would reach the Court. It's conceivable that a state like Alabama could try to get Obergefell back before the Court, but I just don't see that happening. I think there are probably enough Justices for that to avoid a reconsideration. Just look how long it took for the Court to take up this abortion case.

As for Engel v. Vitale, I would say that is most concerning. I'm most concerned about religious cases. In that vein, I'm far more concerned about Lemon v. Kurtzman. That's where the damage could really be done.

[Bootes Void]

There are likely five votes to overrule these cases too, even if John Roberts votes not to.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1394349096597692431

Isn't For such in favour of gay rights, I don't think him and Roberts would support this. Also Kavanaugh wasn't always in support of abortion restrictions.