Rich Lowery emails me

[Whacker77]

This should be good news for Democrats.  Yesterday, I emailed Rich Lowery of NRO about his feelings on the House.  I mentioned that Robert Novak heard that Republicans might lose 26-30 seats.  He actually replied to my email and said that he was pretty pessimistic.  He wrote that he doesn't follow the House race by race so he doesn't have a number in mind.  Still, he thinks if the elections were held today Republicans would lose big.  I hold out more hope than he does, but he is a very well connected Republican insider.  Take it for what it's worth in the last week of August.

[MarkWarner08]

I love how effectively the GOP is playing the expectations game.  While most of my Democratic campaign friends privately doubt whether our party can take back the House, my conservative friends seems almost resigned to losing.

The chances of the Democrats taking the House diminish significantly once you take into account a myriad of factors. Without gerrymandering, the advantages of  incumbency, a low number of open House seats, an RNC spending advantage, a weak Democratic ground and the low approval ratings of the Democratic party, I'd say the Democrats would win 30-35 seats. The problem is, the aforementioned issues are massive hurdles for the Democrats to overcome.

Congratulations on getting a response from a National Review writer!

[Whacker77]

Actually, I got two responses from him.  He doesn't view things race by  race, he just goes by the general mood of fellow Republicans.  Most are in the dumps about November, but that seems to be contrary to what the numbers right now show.  In another month, we'll have a much better idea.