Will you believe any of the polls in 2024?

[Alben Barkley]

Yes, and the polls in 2020 were not actually all that bad by historical measures. The 1996 and 1980 polls, for instance, were much worse but didn't get as much attention because they predicted the winner -- as did the 2020 polls in literally all but 2 states, FL and NC (both close), and yet for some reason they get huge amounts of hate anyway.

The only polls in 2020 that were really extraordinarily off were certain (not even all) polls of states like IA and OH; THOSE I might take with a grain of salt if they show to be toss-ups again. Probably I will assume the Republican is favored there unless given VERY good reason to think otherwise. Aside from that, I will probably take the polls as a decent indicator of which way a state is leaning if nothing else; 48/50 before ain't bad at all, you know!

And yes, the polls in some of the absolute closest states that got the most attention like GA turned out to be the most accurate of all. Not only for the 2020 presidential race, but also the 2018 and 2021 races there. Why the hell then would I be especially skeptical of the polls there???

Then there's the Trump factor; seems undeniable that, whatever the precise reason, the presence of the man himself on the ballot does seem to skew things given the big difference in the 2016/2020 vs. 2018 polls. So if he's the nominee again, I will keep that in mind. If not, I will probably treat it more like the 2018 polls. Unless, again, given VERY good reason to think otherwise.