Will you believe any of the polls in 2024?
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  Will you believe any of the polls in 2024?
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Poll
Question: Will you believe any of the polls or polling models in 2024?
#1
Yes
 
#2
Maybe, but I'm adding points to the Republican number
 
#3
No
 
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Will you believe any of the polls in 2024?  (Read 782 times)
EJ24
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« on: May 10, 2021, 10:41:54 AM »

?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2021, 10:47:44 AM »

Depends. Polls in Georgia were actually quite good, so I'll believe them there. It's polls of the Midwest, especially Wisconsin, that were very misleading, so I'll probably be skeptical about those.
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Literally Just a Contrarian
KyrstenSinemaFan
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2021, 10:51:11 AM »

No, they were terrible in 2020, and continue to be terrible when it comes to sampling (ie: Approval ratings polls in general oversample Democrats hugely).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2021, 10:54:12 AM »

Only with a huge grain of salt. I think that also depends on the GOP nominee and how accurate polls in 2022 are. If 2022 polls are accurate and Trump isn't the nominee, I'm more inclined to the polls in the final phase of the campaign. Polls with months or years out are not to be taken seriously or as prediction anyway.
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2021, 11:02:25 AM »


Skepticism.

Elections 2016 and 2020 polls reported more support for Democrats than what materialized.

Polling is not the most difficult thing in existence.
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Agafin
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2021, 11:25:20 AM »

No or maybe I'll add a couple of points to the republican (if he's Trumpian). There are currently several polls showing Biden with a 60% approval rating. Considering that Trump got 47% of the votes and that his supporters are pretty radical, I have a hard time believing that so many of them approve of Biden's job (they may not all believe that the election was stolen, but I highly doubt that they actually approve of Biden). There's obviously a persistent sampling problem (aka, Trump supporters refusing to answer pollsters).

There are exceptions though, like Selzer's polls in Iowa for whatever reason.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2021, 12:10:05 PM »

I will believe any and all polls that already conform to my priors (typical Atlas answer)
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Motorcity
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2021, 02:33:27 PM »

If Democrats are leading by less than 5% nationally, I'll assume Democrats will lose. If its 5-10% than its a toss up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2021, 03:17:07 PM »

Biden is at 60% Approvals and the Economy hasn't fully recovered, Covid will be over probably before the end of 2022/ the Election is over if an INCUMBENT is above 50% Trump was close to 50% in 2020 that's why Rs overperformed, but again after Insurrectionists became a 40% Prez that's why he will not win 2024

So are the Midterms, Rs won't take the H if Biden is at 50%, every Prez that did badly in Midterms were below 50%
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2021, 03:19:34 PM »

I'll add 5-10 points to the GOP margins. I do believe Trump will be the nominee again.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2021, 03:20:44 PM »

I will believe any and all polls that already conform to my priors (typical Atlas answer)

The Election is over if an INCUMBENT is above 50%, no INCUMBENT lost above 50 that's why Bush W won, he barely made 50 in 2004
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2021, 03:42:36 PM »

If Trump is on the ballot I’ll add a few points otherwise, I will because non trump races such as midterms and the Georgia special where pretty on point, another fact. Both 2016 and 2020 where closer to the mark than 2012
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2021, 03:49:03 PM »

It'll depend on how the 2022 polls shake out.

If they are largely accurate, then the issues with polling are likely Trump-specific and I'll probably take them at face value in 2024 (assuming he does not run).

If the polls are off in 2022, then there's probably something wrong with the methodology and I'll add a few points to the Republicans in the Midwest (since they seemed to be largely accurate elsewhere).
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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2021, 04:28:05 PM »

Nope
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2021, 04:31:42 PM »

Biden is at 60% Approvals in a Pandemic the Election is over if an INCUMBENT reaches 50% by 2024 Covid will be over
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Chips
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« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2021, 10:38:44 PM »

Depends. Polls in Georgia were actually quite good, so I'll believe them there. It's polls of the Midwest, especially Wisconsin, that were very misleading, so I'll probably be skeptical about those.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2021, 09:49:32 AM »
« Edited: May 14, 2021, 04:25:34 PM by Roll Roons »

I will also disregard any internal polls, particularly in downballot races.

Last year, there were two special legislative elections in the same North Jersey district - one for the Senate and one for the Assembly. The (appointed) incumbents were both Republicans.

In mid-October, the Democrats claimed that they had internal polling showing their Assembly candidate up by double digits and their Senate candidate leading by an unspecified amount: https://www.insidernj.com/insider-iline/keep-eye-bucco-2020-volatile-morris/

Ultimately, the GOP won both races, with the Senate candidate winning by 8 and the Assembly candidate winning by 5, even as Biden carried the district by 9.

This is not some WWC area full of low-propensity Trump supporters. It is a wealthy and well-educated suburban district, and yet the internal polls turned out to be complete BS.

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ultraviolet
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« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2021, 11:30:05 AM »

Either yes or no—adding points to one side every time is not good
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2021, 12:16:28 PM »

It's impossible to tell what kind of bias polls will have in the future. Many believed after 2012 that polls would have a permanent Republican bias, and that immediately stopped being true in 2014. Polling inaccuracies can turn on a dime.

That said, I'll probably only take polling with a grain of salt, unless it proves to be very accurate in 2022.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2021, 05:16:16 PM »

Yes, the outcome of 2022 will determine the 2024 Election D's already has 303 EC votes the Senate map already is replicating the Election we already had

Wave insurence seats like NC, OH, FL, the House districts are in 50 states and to make Hakeem JEFFERIES Speaker we need to expand the battleground beyond the 303 Freiwall

AZ and MI polls showed 10 pt leads for D's, Rs aren't winning PA and losing AZ and winning they tried that strategy and failed in 2o2o
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Chips
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2021, 08:56:25 PM »

Georgia polls were pretty spot on. Wisconsin and Michigan polls were just....bad.

So it largely depends on the state as well.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2021, 09:01:04 PM »

Yes, but with a grain of salt
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2021, 03:18:39 PM »

The average of national polls nailed Clinton and Biden's national PV share in 2016 and 2020, but slightly underestimated Trump by 2-3 points. So maybe that's a coincidence, or maybe it's a polling issue, or maybe undecideds broke towards Trump in the end, but then again 2024 will probably have a different GOP candidate, so who knows?

For now, I'll believe the national PV numbers for the Democratic candidate, whether that be Biden or Harris. But everything else will be hard to believe for certain.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2021, 03:27:19 PM »

D's are gonna have a breakout yr, due to fact Covid and Unemployment is being Eradicated as we speak, we had break out yrs in 2006/08/12, the Elections aren't gonna be close forever. Watch out for a D tsunami if Rs underperforms a typical Midterm, outparty usually net 23 seats but Insurrectionists have spoiled Rs chances especially if a Commission is formed

I am optimistic now, about 2022 Uncle Joe has a 59 percent Approvals


Thanks to 1400, if Rs kept Senate we would of left high and dry on stimulus
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2021, 07:06:49 AM »

I expect it will be worse (overall) in 2024, but I'll still let most polls play a (much smaller) part in determining my expectations. There are a few pollsters (like Selzer) that I'm going to weight upwards, but what I really need is a guide to which ones these are.

I'm of the opinion that 538's ratings don't do this anymore. They seem to grade pollsters relative to each other rather than against a fixed point, and they do that badly because of their 21-day rule which leads to small sample sizes and omits truly awful polls.

I might try to come up with an alternative, if and when I have time. Any interest in that idea and/or suggestions for the metrics I should prioritise?
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