Rate PA - DeSantis v. Harris
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  Rate PA - DeSantis v. Harris		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Rate PA - DeSantis v. Harris
#1
Likely R		  
#2
Lean R		  
#3
Tilt R		  
#4
Toss Up		  
#5
Tilt D		  
#6
Lean D		  
#7
Likely D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 72

Author Topic: Rate PA - DeSantis v. Harris  (Read 1107 times)
SN2903
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« on: May 13, 2021, 10:20:34 AM »
Toss Up/Tilt R imo. Harris would not be as strong in PA as Biden and DeSantis would play well in the Western part of the state and would have a chance to do pretty well in the Philly Suburbs.
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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2021, 10:23:38 AM »
Depends on the general, overall state of the race. What current events are going on, what kind of campaign each side is running, what gaffes, what scandals come out, how did the Biden / Harris administration do, what is the economy like etc etc etc

The state can go to either side, depending on the above factors. Therefore, I vote toss-up
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Chips
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2021, 10:33:10 AM »
It will be a pure toss-up.
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Da2017
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2021, 10:36:59 AM »
Toss up
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2021, 10:43:18 AM »
Pure tossup.
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sting in the rafters
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2021, 10:44:54 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2021, 10:47:59 AM by 215 till I die »
Toss-up. DeSantis’s record as a Tea Partier would hurt his margins in Chester/Montco/Delco and Harris presumably would have the benefit of tying herself as closely as possible to Biden. What is intriguing is whether DeSantis’s hard-line on immigration would carry him in Wyoming Valley, especially with Joey off the ballot.

Overall PA always comes down to which party can pump up their base more. The D base is still larger than the R-base, though the gap has narrowed due to GOP efforts. Will likely be the tipping point state again.


An underrated factor is Casey is on the ballot. Last time he was on the ballot in a presidential year he ran 3 points ahead, will be interesting to see how that impacts the race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2021, 11:18:35 AM »
I'm not sure how the idea of DeSantis playing well in the suburbs jives.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2021, 11:46:42 AM »
Toss-Up, as it would be in most D vs. R matchups.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2021, 11:47:13 AM »
Tossup/tilt R. Maybe low-tier lean R on a good day for DeSantis. He could definitely improve over Trump's performance in suburban Philadelphia, but may (slightly) underperform him in western Pennsylvania.

If I were to round up, I'd say R+1.
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SN2903
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« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2021, 12:43:20 PM »
Quote from: Lone Star Politics on May 13, 2021, 11:47:13 AM
Tossup/tilt R. Maybe low-tier lean R on a good day for DeSantis. He could definitely improve over Trump's performance in suburban Philadelphia, but may (slightly) underperform him in western Pennsylvania.

If I were to round up, I'd say R+1.
Agree
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2021, 12:47:00 PM »
Tossup (sane)
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2021, 12:47:17 PM »
Exact toss-up
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AGA
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2021, 01:07:49 PM »
Tilt R (I don't do tossups).
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2021, 01:10:39 PM »
Tossup/Tilt D. 2016 was the inflection point where republicans got the perfect combination of max rural turnout and enough suburban support to eek out a 44,000 vote win. I expect the current trends to continue.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2021, 03:21:43 PM »
Safe Republican because Weak Candidate HarrisTM can't win against Strong Candidate Ronald DeSantisTM who will keep the Trump base and make massive inroads in Philly suburbs.

In all seriousness, it's too eary to judge and starts as tossup. That being said, I think Joe Biden will run again and if things continue to go well, he's favored to win reelection.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2021, 06:32:16 PM »
Pure toss-up. If I had to pick I'd say Tilt R.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2021, 06:36:36 PM »
Tossup, Tilt D if forced to choose.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2021, 10:00:43 PM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2021, 05:28:30 AM »
Quote from: Lone Star Politics on May 13, 2021, 11:47:13 AM
Tossup/tilt R. Maybe low-tier lean R on a good day for DeSantis. He could definitely improve over Trump's performance in suburban Philadelphia, but may (slightly) underperform him in western Pennsylvania.

If I were to round up, I'd say R+1.

again, i don't understand this line of thinking?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2021, 06:03:05 AM »
Lean D. Until I see otherwise Pennsylvania is slightly D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2021, 07:18:28 AM »
Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot in 2024 he helped Wolf win by 17 pts, D's will win PA, Shapiro is gonna be Elected Gov and soon we are gonna have 2 Senators and the Gov mansion
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2021, 07:18:53 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 14, 2021, 06:03:05 AM
Lean D. Until I see otherwise Pennsylvania is slightly D.

It's safe D
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2021, 10:55:24 AM »
Pure tossup. But way to early to make a real projection. Tilt D if forced to. I'm not buying DeSantis is such a great fit for the Midwest. At least we haven't seen any evidence for that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2021, 11:52:10 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on May 14, 2021, 10:55:24 AM
Pure tossup. But way to early to make a real projection. Tilt D if forced to. I'm not buying DeSantis is such a great fit for the Midwest. At least we haven't seen any evidence for that.

Bob Casey Jr 2024 is on the ballot, he helped Wolf win by 17 pts in 2018 Biden wins by Shapiro margins 4-6 pts

Safe D

This is an SN thread you know, he thinks Trump is gonna be Prez, Trump is a 46 percent Prez
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