I know there's going to be a lot of memes about this poll, but it should be a little bit concerning that Kelly doesn't break 50% against anyone, given his high name recognition, especially since basically all of these people clearly have less name recognition than he does.
As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.
That 50% rule is bunk. Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.
Late undecideds were always going to be good for Ernst, me, IndyRep, and others warned that the race was fools gold for Democrats. As for Collins and Tillis, they both had late developments in their races that likely saved them, for Collins it was the ACB vote that refreshed her image as a moderate, and likely vaulted her above 50%, also the margin is deceiving since Lisa Savage got around 5%, so in reality Gideon was at like 47.3% on the final round, given how the messaging around Collins had mainly been "Kavanaugh and Impeachment show she isn't a moderate anymore," this vote directly undercut said messaging, and given the tendency for late events to swing elections by considerable margins (see Comey Letter and 2016), all of the evidence we have, suggests it saved her. As for Tillis, Cunningham had a scandal break late where he sent explicit texts to a consultant, given how Tillis underperformed much of the Republican slate, there was clearly a sizable undervote in the race, in fact Tillis in some cases, performed worse than Democrats who lost their statewide, this suggests said undervote at least somewhat favored Cunningham, and there's always the possibility that people switched late to Cunningham out of disgust for the scandal.
