AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:14:50 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2022 Senate & House Election Polls
  AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨  (Read 1910 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 13, 2021, 10:14:52 AM »
« edited: May 13, 2021, 10:52:17 AM by VAR »

Kelly (D) 47%
Ward (R) 36%

Kelly (D) 47%
Biggs (R) 36%

Kelly (D) 46%
Lake (R) 35%

Kelly (D) 46%
Brnovich (R) 36%

Kelly (D) 45%
Yee (R) 35%

Kelly (D) 44%
McGuire (R) 35%

Kelly (D) 43%
Jack McCain (R) 29%

https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/support-for-sinema-beginning-to-mirror-kellys
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2021, 10:41:57 AM »

A lot of undecided Rs so it would definitely tighten. That said, the GOP seems to have same issues with independents in Arizona that it had in 2018, 2020.

AZ's Democratic Senators are not far lefties and very good fits for the state.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2021, 10:49:03 AM »

You mean he's only ahead by low double digits?? Massive Republican tsunami incoming, 62-38 R Senate (all races except AZ/IA) is inevitable.
Logged
Pink Panther
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2021, 10:59:31 AM »

Polls aren't amazing nowadays, and there's a bunch of undecideds, but Jesus, Kelly is even crushing Yee and Brnovich. I doubt this would hold, but Kelly should have a cakewalk to reelection, especially if it's Ward/Gosar/Biggs.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2021, 10:59:48 AM »

Progressiveoderate had Kelly losing on his NUT R map, please
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2021, 11:42:33 AM »



Polls aren't amazing nowadays, and there's a bunch of undecideds, but Jesus, Kelly is even crushing Yee and Brnovich. I doubt this would hold, but Kelly should have a cakewalk to reelection, especially if it's Ward/Gosar/Biggs.

When did Yee and Brnovich speak out against Kelli Ward's nomination as party chair? Or against her retweeting Breitbart on a daily basis? When did they run ads disavowing Trump's January insurrection? When did they release a statement explicitly affirming that Joe Biden is the legitimate President of the United States? When did they issue a statement expressing their support for Liz Cheney as Speaker of the House?

Nothing about this is surprising. Even the most 'moderate' AZ Republican is still an AZ GQP loon, and you quite literally have to be a loon to affiliate yourself with that party in the first place. I swear, this is the most underrated pick for most awful, incompetent, self-destructing state party in the country. I wasn’t going to let polling influence my predictions after 2020, but this basically confirms it. Likely D, but closer to Safe than Lean. Kelly knows what he’s doing, the AZ GQP just doesn’t. KaiserDave is right: Why do Republicans underrate Mark Kelly?
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2021, 12:03:38 PM »

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2021, 03:11:37 PM »

I don't believe polls anymore. Tossup/Tilt R.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2021, 03:13:23 PM »

I don't believe polls anymore. Tossup/Tilt R.

Biden is at 55% Approvals and D performance matches that of Approvals of Prez, Trump and Obama lost seats due to fact they were 46%, Obama recovered in 2012
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2021, 03:18:58 PM »

Well, the polls in 2020 were also too rosy for Kelly. Of course he won but it was closer than expected. I think he's the narrow favorite for now, but I wouldn't take it for granted. Good for Kelly is that the Republican bench is pretty weak.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2021, 03:27:53 PM »

GOP has a higher recruiting flop risk here than anywhere else it seems.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2021, 03:30:47 PM »

The reason why Kelly isn't vulnerable he hasn't served 6 yrs, he only served 2, the only person that could of beaten Kelly was Ducey, and he didn't run against Kelly, they are friends

The Rs CENSURED Ducey and made it even more impossible for him to run, which doomed Rs chances
Logged
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2021, 03:37:19 PM »

Obviously this doesn't mean much given the quantity of undecideds, but it is interesting that Brnovich/Yee are performing identically to Ward at this point.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2021, 03:45:00 PM »

The reason why Kelly isn't vulnerable he hasn't served 6 yrs, he only served 2, the only person that could of beaten Kelly was Ducey, and he didn't run against Kelly, they are friends

The Rs CENSURED Ducey and made it even more impossible for him to run, which doomed Rs chances

Ducey would have been a good candidate in 2020, not 2022. He has lost the God Emperor's praise and would consequently suffer from a massive lack of Republican enthusiasm (if he even wins the nomination). At the same time, he doesn't have that much crossover appeal either.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2021, 03:55:05 PM »

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2021, 03:58:19 PM »

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

Agreed, though the margin is also playing a role. Mentioned names often just barely trailed. Leading 47-35% gives you a lot more comfort than 47-44%.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2021, 04:14:13 PM »

Kelly is gonna win, move on Rs it's not happening
Logged
MRS DONNA SHALALA
cuddlebuns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 585
South Africa


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2021, 06:46:47 PM »

Well, the polls in 2020 were also too rosy for Kelly. Of course he won but it was closer than expected. I think he's the narrow favorite for now, but I wouldn't take it for granted. Good for Kelly is that the Republican bench is pretty weak.

The last OHPI poll in AZ before Nov. 2020 had Kelly winning 50-45. He wound up winning 51-48
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,257
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2021, 09:44:07 PM »

I know there's going to be a lot of memes about this poll, but it should be a little bit concerning that Kelly doesn't break 50% against anyone, given his high name recognition, especially since basically all of these people clearly have less name recognition than he does.


As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

Late undecideds were always going to be good for Ernst, me, IndyRep, and others warned that the race was fools gold for Democrats. As for Collins and Tillis, they both had late developments in their races that likely saved them, for Collins it was the ACB vote that refreshed her image as a moderate, and likely vaulted her above 50%, also the margin is deceiving since Lisa Savage got around 5%, so in reality Gideon was at like 47.3% on the final round, given how the messaging around Collins had mainly been "Kavanaugh and Impeachment show she isn't a moderate anymore," this vote directly undercut said messaging, and given the tendency for late events to swing elections by considerable margins (see Comey Letter and 2016), all of the evidence we have, suggests it saved her. As for Tillis, Cunningham had a scandal break late where he sent explicit texts to a consultant, given how Tillis underperformed much of the Republican slate, there was clearly a sizable undervote in the race, in fact Tillis in some cases, performed worse than Democrats who lost their statewide, this suggests said undervote at least somewhat favored Cunningham, and there's always the possibility that people switched late to Cunningham out of disgust for the scandal.
Logged
The Smiling Face On Your TV
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,494
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2021, 10:15:16 PM »

Sinema's crosstabs are unreal, +28 with Ds and -11 with Rs. Both bases will come home on election day, though what is crucial is that both Sinema/Kelly are already in the low 40s with indies. They should both hold their seats if they can get that to the upper 40s.


All of the Rs have low numbers because of name recognition, are there any polls that show either incumbent vs a generic R?
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2021, 11:02:41 PM »

Arizona centrism addiction.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2021, 11:20:24 AM »

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

Not the point. Polls should be monitored to assess whether or not candidates are growing their vote share, and how critical the undecided vote and potential turnout gaps could be in deciding the final result. The candidate with the more inflexible base (typically the democrat in states with significant, population-dense POC regions) tends to be the one who hits their ceiling first, and this should be something Kelly's campaign is paying close attention to. Undecideds tend to break in favor of the state's partisan lean (e.g. Hawley consolidating undecideds in Missouri in 2018), another red flag for Kelly in a state where trends are in his favor but the national environment probably won't be.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2021, 12:53:05 PM »

I know there's going to be a lot of memes about this poll, but it should be a little bit concerning that Kelly doesn't break 50% against anyone, given his high name recognition, especially since basically all of these people clearly have less name recognition than he does.


As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

Late undecideds were always going to be good for Ernst, me, IndyRep, and others warned that the race was fools gold for Democrats. As for Collins and Tillis, they both had late developments in their races that likely saved them, for Collins it was the ACB vote that refreshed her image as a moderate, and likely vaulted her above 50%, also the margin is deceiving since Lisa Savage got around 5%, so in reality Gideon was at like 47.3% on the final round, given how the messaging around Collins had mainly been "Kavanaugh and Impeachment show she isn't a moderate anymore," this vote directly undercut said messaging, and given the tendency for late events to swing elections by considerable margins (see Comey Letter and 2016), all of the evidence we have, suggests it saved her. As for Tillis, Cunningham had a scandal break late where he sent explicit texts to a consultant, given how Tillis underperformed much of the Republican slate, there was clearly a sizable undervote in the race, in fact Tillis in some cases, performed worse than Democrats who lost their statewide, this suggests said undervote at least somewhat favored Cunningham, and there's always the possibility that people switched late to Cunningham out of disgust for the scandal.

It was clear that Collins only voted against ACB because McConnell allowed her to because her vote wasn’t needed.  Anyone who couldn’t see that obviously wasn’t very bright.  Voting against Obamacare didn’t save many Dems from red districts in 2010.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2021, 01:17:28 PM »

GOP has a higher recruiting flop risk here than anywhere else it seems.

I'm surprised this race hasn't been discussed much in the "potential Todd Akin redux" thread, although I suppose it's not a full Akin redux if it's a swing state.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2021, 01:21:19 PM »

This is AstroNUT to Ground Control
I'm 11 points ahead
And the polls are never wrong, or so they say
And the trends look like they're going my way
For here am I sitting in a safe seat
Far above K. Ward
Arizona's blue
And there's nothing they can do
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.