AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨

[MT Treasurer]

Polls aren't amazing nowadays, and there's a bunch of undecideds, but Jesus, Kelly is even crushing Yee and Brnovich. I doubt this would hold, but Kelly should have a cakewalk to reelection, especially if it's Ward/Gosar/Biggs.

When did Yee and Brnovich speak out against Kelli Ward's nomination as party chair? Or against her retweeting Breitbart on a daily basis? When did they run ads disavowing Trump's January insurrection? When did they release a statement explicitly affirming that Joe Biden is the legitimate President of the United States? When did they issue a statement expressing their support for Liz Cheney as Speaker of the House?

Nothing about this is surprising. Even the most 'moderate' AZ Republican is still an AZ GQP loon, and you quite literally have to be a loon to affiliate yourself with that party in the first place. I swear, this is the most underrated pick for most awful, incompetent, self-destructing state party in the country. I wasn’t going to let polling influence my predictions after 2020, but this basically confirms it. Likely D, but closer to Safe than Lean. Kelly knows what he’s doing, the AZ GQP just doesn’t. KaiserDave is right: Why do Republicans underrate Mark Kelly?

[MT Treasurer]

GOP has a higher recruiting flop risk here than anywhere else it seems.

I'm surprised this race hasn't been discussed much in the "potential Todd Akin redux" thread, although I suppose it's not a full Akin redux if it's a swing state.

Er, maybe not in that thread, but 80% of posts pertaining to this race (and PA-SEN) on this board are some variation of "Republicans are blowing it", "[insert name of random generic AZ Republican who’s hardly more 'radical' than any of the Republicans running in NC] is way too 'Trumpy' to win a general election," and "lol AZ GOP [PA GOP]." AZ Republicans could resurrect Ronald Reagan and people would be labeling him 'unelectable' because of Kelli Ward's tweets.

Any halfway competent Republican who makes a compelling case against Kelly in a somewhat friendly environment for their party will be trouble for Democrats, regardless of their 'ideology.' This should be, well, rather obvious. The fact that 'moderates' like Yee or Brnovich are faring as poorly as 'radicals' Ward and Biggs in this poll suggests that there might be more to those results than 'the AZ GOP blowing it' (namely underlying problems with this poll, Kelly's level of support reflecting Biden's approval at this point in time, most undecideds leaning R, etc.).