AZ-OHPI: Kelly leads all challengers by double digits, NUT map incoming, AZ GOP self-destructing 🚨

[President Johnson]

Well, the polls in 2020 were also too rosy for Kelly. Of course he won but it was closer than expected. I think he's the narrow favorite for now, but I wouldn't take it for granted. Good for Kelly is that the Republican bench is pretty weak.

[President Johnson]

The reason why Kelly isn't vulnerable he hasn't served 6 yrs, he only served 2, the only person that could of beaten Kelly was Ducey, and he didn't run against Kelly, they are friends

The Rs CENSURED Ducey and made it even more impossible for him to run, which doomed Rs chances

Ducey would have been a good candidate in 2020, not 2022. He has lost the God Emperor's praise and would consequently suffer from a massive lack of Republican enthusiasm (if he even wins the nomination). At the same time, he doesn't have that much crossover appeal either.

[President Johnson]

As always, the most important thing to look out for is vote share, not margins. Kelly has a ceiling of 47% here and is often below that.

That 50% rule is bunk.  Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst consistently polled in the low forties before winning re-election.

Agreed, though the margin is also playing a role. Mentioned names often just barely trailed. Leading 47-35% gives you a lot more comfort than 47-44%.