WSJ Poll has Webb up 1.3% over Allen

[Virginian87]

Here's the poll:

WEBB 47.9%
ALLEN 46.6%

Click here for the poll:  http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

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Not sure what to make of this, but I'm inclined to believe this poll could be an outlier, since if I remember correctly they predicted the Ohio gubernatorial race would be close.  But it's definitely a step in the right direction, that's for sure!

[agcatter]

another Zogby garbage internet poll  -  Zogby also had Carter's son running only three points down in Nevada.  I swear, I believe Zogby just sits in his office and makes these results up.

[7,052,770]

I want to believe this, so I do.

[Joe Republic]

I want to believe this, so I do.

I want to believe that there's really a Santa Claus.  But if I did, I'd look a little silly, wouldn't I?

[Virginian87]

If you include the margin of error (3.2%), this poll is consistent with the other recent Webb/Allen polls showing Webb down by 3 or 5.

[Alcon]

If you include the margin of error (3.2%), this poll is consistent with the other recent Webb/Allen polls showing Webb down by 3 or 5.

Yes, adjusting for MoE and Zogby Crazy, this poll could be somewhere in the general vicinity of reality, maybe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's a Zogby Online poll. Automatically belongs in the trash bin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remember Zogby having Ford up in TN last month and we saw where that went. He tends to overstate polls in the long shot states of TN and VA. But anything is possible when Bush poll numbers are this low. Rasmussen has the balance of power in the Senate aas 50-47R and 3 tossups and TN and VA are still leaning towards the Republicans right now.

[Frodo]

This poll is obviously an outlier, but it is indicative of the fact that this race has tightened since earlier this summer -and if Webb lives up to his hype (as seen on his campaign banner in my sig), he should be able to make this race a nail-biter to the finish, though I predict that Senator Allen will win re-election no matter what.  The only question that concerns me is by how much.  He may have already torpedoed his 2008 presidential ambitions by displaying to the world just how much of a bigoted dumbass he really is, but I want to seal the deal by having him win by less than 55% of the vote this year. 

[Smash255]

I said i wanted to wait for one more poll before I truly say the VA race has become competitive.  I still say that.  As good as this poll lokks, its Zogby, aka The Human polling Error.

I don't understand why Zogby can't use his same basic forrmula that he uses in his national polls for his state polls...  Their would be some changes depending on the state, but his national polls are generally solid, his state polls well just suck.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it doesn't suck, they are were good his 2004 polls had a 269 all tie and that is very good it was close to the national average.

[Eraserhead]

No, it doesn't suck, they are were good his 2004 polls had a 269 all tie and that is very good it was close to the national average.

Not really that good. Everyone knew it was going to be close, so in fact he was quite off on where the states went on election day...although still not as bd as Gallup, who a day before the election predicted that Bush would win Pennsylvania and that Kerry would win Florida and Ohio.

[Tender Branson]

This Zogby poll is really consistant with other polls showing Allen declining from 56% in late June to now 47%, while in the same time Webb climbed from 37% to 48% now. I think we should take this one seriously, even tough it´s a Zogby poll. Remember: He also did a phone survey last time in Virginia and it showed Allen in front of Webb by 10%, while the Internet poll showed him ahead of 11%. So, for me it´s a toss-up.

Link here:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1151

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not a toss up, because he had Ford ahead last month over Corker and you saw where that went. Until there is a public poll that backs it up, I don't believe it is a tossup, it is lean at best. Don't forget in 2004, he said VA was too close to call and VA was a landslide for Bush.

[RJ]

OK, so if Zogby is full of crap, how close is this race? Where do things stand now? Does Webb have a shot? What're the chances of him getting decent funding?

There has to be more to this than the macaca statement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it is within the margin of error, I think Webb is down between 3-5 points. Zogby overstated polls like he did in TN last month. But he is well within the margin of error. The Dems will have to give him more funds than just rely on the off the cuff statement to get him through this battle.

[ATFFL]

I think it is within the margin of error, I think Webb is down between 3-5 points. Zogby overstated polls like he did in TN last month. But he is well within the margin of error. The Dems will have to give him more funds than just rely on the off the cuff statement to get him through this battle.

Then it cannot, de facto, be in the 3.4% Margin of Error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is within the margin of error, the Webb was behind by 3 points in the latest Survey USA poll and Webb is up by 1.3%, it is within the margin of error.

[ATFFL]

It is within the margin of error, the Webb was behind by 3 points in the latest Survey USA poll and Webb is up by 1.3%, it is within the margin of error.

I think it is within the margin of error, I think Webb is down between 3-5 points. Zogby overstated polls like he did in TN last month. But he is well within the margin of error. The Dems will have to give him more funds than just rely on the off the cuff statement to get him through this battle.

Do you know wha margin of error means? 

If Allen is leading by 3 and the margin of error is 3.4%, the largest lead Webb could have is .4 and still be in the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The margin of error is 3-5 percent that is exactly within the margin of error. I am not going by the margin of error of the Zogby polls I am going by the Survey USA poll and the margin of error in that poll is 4 percent.

[ATFFL]

Thank you for answering the question.  No, you do not know what margin of error is.  You cannot take one poll's MoE and transfer it to another.

Oh, and even if you could, the Zogby result is STILL outside the MoE of a 3% lead for Allen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You say it isn't within the margin of error, who cares the race is competetive and anyone can win right now. It is more competetive than it was before, and Webb can win. And all Zogby polls are showing is that Webb can win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Please take a statistics class.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares if the margin of error is off, but the race is competetive and Webb can win and all that it is showing is that he can win. You dispute me on when I say the race is within the margin of error but you don't dispute the original pollster that says this. No, I am not going to take a statistics class the margin of error is not 3 it ranges from 3-5 points whoever told you that is wrong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is an actual mathematical formula for determining the MoE that is covered in a basic 100 level Statistics class. It depends on the number polled and confidence level (although almost all polls use a 95% confidence level). To compare the MoE of one poll to another is completely pointless, it's about as logical as assuming how much gas mileage you'll get out of one car from the gas mileage of another one.