TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,773
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« on: May 16, 2021, 07:06:49 AM » |
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I expect it will be worse (overall) in 2024, but I'll still let most polls play a (much smaller) part in determining my expectations. There are a few pollsters (like Selzer) that I'm going to weight upwards, but what I really need is a guide to which ones these are.
I'm of the opinion that 538's ratings don't do this anymore. They seem to grade pollsters relative to each other rather than against a fixed point, and they do that badly because of their 21-day rule which leads to small sample sizes and omits truly awful polls.
I might try to come up with an alternative, if and when I have time. Any interest in that idea and/or suggestions for the metrics I should prioritise?
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