Maybe a bit early...

[DownWithTheLeft]

Maybe its a bit early, but here is a possible map for 2008:

Pickups:
LA: Although she is seen as a moderate, Landrieu took a big hit in popularity after Hurricane Katrina.  If he opts to run for this seat instead of against Blanco, Bobby Jindal would easily defeat her.

CO: Wayne Allard is very conservative and very controversial, and not very well-liked.  On the other hand, Mark Udall is a moderate new-comer w/a long family history who should dispose of him.

NJ: Frank Lautenberg is on of the most unpopular senators.  NJ remains w/OH as the only state that has a governor and two Senators w/negative approvals.  NJ has a wealth of candidates including Morris county freeholder John Murphy who suprised many w/his showing in the 2005 gubenatorial primary.  The only controversial Steve Lonegan who has gained national name recognition for his "English-only" ballot intititive.  He is very conservative, but continually wins election as mayor in a liberal town.  And don't count Tom Kean Sr. out who would handily crush Lautenberg.  Kean Sr. was actually considering a governor's run in 2005.

Close Seats that Could Switch:

SD: After John Thune was able to knock-off popular incumbent Tom Daschle, this is not impossible.  I just don't think SD has another credible candidate to run.

AR: Pryor is a moderate and Arkansas is still very locally Democratic, he should be able to hold on.  Similar to this year's Maria Cantwell

TX: Cornyn isn't incredibly popular but he is an incumbent in TX

MA: If Kerry retires, the GOP has a healthy field of candidates, but it is MA

WV: Shelley Capito Moore could give Rockerfeller a run for his money, but only time will tell

AK: If Ted Stevens retires, a race between his son Ben Stevens and Tony Knowles would be interesting.  But Knowles, coming off a senator and a gubenatorial defeat might not run.

That is about all the seats I see in play

Comments?

[Frodo]

The senate race in Oregon could get very interesting especially if former Governor John Kitzhaber announces his candidacy against Senator Gordon Smith.  If he runs, mark this race as a toss-up. 

As for Virginia, it is said that Rep. Tom Davis is supposed to be the heir-apparent should Senator John Warner retire.  I doubt whether he would be able to make it through the primary, especially with the state Republican Party becoming ever more conservative as older, more moderate members step down and younger, more radical Young Turks replace them.  I think either congressmen Eric Cantor or Jo Ann Davis would be more likely successors. 

In any case, this seat should be solidly Republican if Warner runs for another term.  If he retires, mark this as lean-Republican, especially in the backdrop of a state becoming ever more moderate in general elections.   

[Jake]

Maybe its a bit early, but here is a possible map for 2008:

Pickups:
LA: Although she is seen as a moderate, Landrieu took a big hit in popularity after Hurricane Katrina.  If he opts to run for this seat instead of against Blanco, Bobby Jindal would easily defeat her.

Possible.

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Possible

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Doubtful. I'd be very surprised if Lautenberg doesn't retire and hand this one over to Andrews or Pallone. Kean Sr. won't run.

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Bench is non-existent unless Rounds takes a shot at it. Rounds would probably be favored.

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Pryor is safe.

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Cornyn should be safe in a Presidential election year, especially since the Democrat's bench is bare.

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No. Democrats hold this seat regardless.

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No. Rockefeller hold easily.

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No idea here. GOP favored if Stevens retires though.

[Deano963]

Maybe its a bit early, but here is a possible map for 2008:

Pickups:
LA: Although she is seen as a moderate, Landrieu took a big hit in popularity after Hurricane Katrina.  If he opts to run for this seat instead of against Blanco, Bobby Jindal would easily defeat her.

Just before Hurricane Katrina hit last year, Mary Landrieu had a net approval of +12. Right now, her net approval is +13. Her approval dipped slightly after Katrina, but then rebounded higher than it was before the storm in January of this year. I don't see how her popularity has taken a hit after Katrina.

[Joe Republic]

SD: After John Thune was able to knock-off popular incumbent Tom Daschle, this is not impossible.  I just don't think SD has another credible candidate to run.

Mike Rounds is certainly credible.

[Deano963]

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Doubtful. I'd be very surprised if Lautenberg doesn't retire and hand this one over to Andrews or Pallone. Kean Sr. won't run.

[quote]

Frank Lautenberg has announced that he will seek reelection in 2008. Can't rememeber exactly where I read his quote at, but I'll try to find it for you. He also said he regretted ever retiring in the first place.

[Frodo]

SD: After John Thune was able to knock-off popular incumbent Tom Daschle, this is not impossible.  I just don't think SD has another credible candidate to run.

Mike Rounds is certainly credible.

Yes, I am somewhat surprised that DWDft overlooked this very popular, (soon-to-be) two-term incumbent who looks to be a shoo-in if he runs against Senator Tim Johnson in '08. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Johnson is actually more popular than Rounds at the moment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rounds blew it with the abortion law. He'll still win reelection easily, but his popularity has dropped to where he can not defeat Johnson.

[Frodo]

Rounds blew it with the abortion law. He'll still win reelection easily, but his popularity has dropped to where he can not defeat Johnson.

The election is still two years away.  If polls showing Mike Rounds to be either less popular or at par with Tim Johnson still holds true by then, then I will alter my prediction of a probably Republican pick-up in '08.  As of now, I don't see it happening that Tim Johnson could keep his senate seat in such an overwhelmingly Republican state. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

A few more ideas:

DE: Biden retires and Castle runs, who is a popular state-wide elected representative

MI: If Levin retires, DeVos would be a credible candidate whether he wins this year or not

NM: Could Bill Richardson take a stab at this seat?

More on NJ:
On Wikipedia there is a link about Lautenberg annoucing to run in 2008 but it is to paid newspaper archives.  He called retiring in 2000, "the worst decision of his life."

Here are some more viable candidates for the GOP:
US Rep. Mike Ferguson
US Attorney (one of my personal favs) Chris Cristie
Most interesting, when surfing one website it suggested Al Leiter might take a crack at the seat.

[Joe Republic]

NM: Could Bill Richardson take a stab at this seat?

He could, but I think we all know what Richardson's real plans for 2008 are.  Not to mention that he would probably be better off doing that than trying to unseat Pete Domenici.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Domenici will almost certainly retire. He'll be quite old and he's not in good health. The Democrats have a bunch of other candidates besides Richardson who'll take a stab at it.

[Mr. Morden]

What about Minnesota?  Coleman has only had one term, and he won under rather unusual circumstances.  Has he gained so much in popularity and/or is incumbency that strong that the right Democratic challenger couldn't give him a run for his money?

[DownWithTheLeft]

What about Minnesota?  Coleman has only had one term, and he won under rather unusual circumstances.  Has he gained so much in popularity and/or is incumbency that strong that the right Democratic challenger couldn't give him a run for his money?

Could, not likely

[DownWithTheLeft]

MS - should Cochran retire, Mike Moore and Chip Pickering will run, and will be a tossup.

Harry, you seem to have two choices:
1.) Put up w/Republicans controlling your state
2.) Move

This isn't even a possibility, MS will never be vulnerable.

[Conan]

Maybe its a bit early, but here is a possible map for 2008:

Pickups:
LA: Although she is seen as a moderate, Landrieu took a big hit in popularity after Hurricane Katrina.  If he opts to run for this seat instead of against Blanco, Bobby Jindal would easily defeat her.

CO: Wayne Allard is very conservative and very controversial, and not very well-liked.  On the other hand, Mark Udall is a moderate new-comer w/a long family history who should dispose of him.

NJ: Frank Lautenberg is on of the most unpopular senators.  NJ remains w/OH as the only state that has a governor and two Senators w/negative approvals.  NJ has a wealth of candidates including Morris county freeholder John Murphy who suprised many w/his showing in the 2005 gubenatorial primary.  The only controversial Steve Lonegan who has gained national name recognition for his "English-only" ballot intititive.  He is very conservative, but continually wins election as mayor in a liberal town.  And don't count Tom Kean Sr. out who would handily crush Lautenberg.  Kean Sr. was actually considering a governor's run in 2005.

Close Seats that Could Switch:

SD: After John Thune was able to knock-off popular incumbent Tom Daschle, this is not impossible.  I just don't think SD has another credible candidate to run.

AR: Pryor is a moderate and Arkansas is still very locally Democratic, he should be able to hold on.  Similar to this year's Maria Cantwell

TX: Cornyn isn't incredibly popular but he is an incumbent in TX

MA: If Kerry retires, the GOP has a healthy field of candidates, but it is MA

WV: Shelley Capito Moore could give Rockerfeller a run for his money, but only time will tell

AK: If Ted Stevens retires, a race between his son Ben Stevens and Tony Knowles would be interesting.  But Knowles, coming off a senator and a gubenatorial defeat might not run.

That is about all the seats I see in play

Comments?

If you look at local polls or anything but survey usa, Lautenberg has a +15-20 approval rating. Also, by 2008, Governor Corzine is likely to be very popular. This seat is safely democratic. You also over estimate Tom Kean Sr.  Hes done with, old, and retired. There arent really any other GOP candidates out there who are currently in politics unless a businessman appears who are strong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MS will never be vulnerable.

Voted (albeit narrowly) for a Democratic governer in 1999 and he was hardly hammered in 2003. House delagation is a 2/2 split at the moment, and was 3/2 in favour of the Democrats before reapportionment.

In an open seat situation, the right sort of Democrat could certainly win.

[Moooooo]

MI: If Levin retires, DeVos would be a credible candidate whether he wins this year or not

Candice Miller would be strong, too.

[Moooooo]

This isn't even a possibility, MS will never be vulnerable.

Like Al said, if the right Democrat runs...

Former Attorney General Mike Moore (D) has never lost a statewide race.

[Conan]

What about Minnesota?  Coleman has only had one term, and he won under rather unusual circumstances.  Has he gained so much in popularity and/or is incumbency that strong that the right Democratic challenger couldn't give him a run for his money?

Could, not likely

This is one seat that will switch hands in 2008. Coleman isnt so strong. Besides Al Franken is supposed to run. Coleman barely won in 2002 too.

Maine- possible D pickup if Collins isnt a liar and Dems actually recruit a candidate unlike now. Collins drops and this is solid Dem.

New Mexico- possible D with right candidate.

North Carolina- Dole may retire supposedly. If Easley runs or another strong dem, this could switch.

Virginia- If Warner stays and Kaine or Mark Warner runs, D pick up. Toss up otherwise if neither Kaine or Mark Warner runs and Warner drops.

Colorado- Dem pick up

Georgia- 2002 again? toss up there,  otherwise R keep.

New Hampshire- Dem pickup

Oregon- Dem pickup

Tennessee- Alexander outs , toss up

Oklahom- Henry runs? tossup

In 2008, dems will at least pick up 5!

[DownWithTheLeft]

What about Minnesota?  Coleman has only had one term, and he won under rather unusual circumstances.  Has he gained so much in popularity and/or is incumbency that strong that the right Democratic challenger couldn't give him a run for his money?

Could, not likely

This is one seat that will switch hands in 2008. Coleman isnt so strong. Besides Al Franken is supposed to run. Coleman barely won in 2002 too.

Maine- possible D pickup if Collins isnt a liar and Dems actually recruit a candidate unlike now. Collins drops and this is solid Dem.

New Mexico- possible D with right candidate.

North Carolina- Dole may retire supposedly. If Easley runs or another strong dem, this could switch.

Virginia- If Warner stays and Kaine or Mark Warner runs, D pick up. Toss up otherwise if neither Kaine or Mark Warner runs and Warner drops.

Colorado- Dem pick up

Georgia- 2002 again? toss up there,  otherwise R keep.

New Hampshire- Dem pickup

Oregon- Dem pickup

Tennessee- Alexander outs , toss up

Oklahom- Henry runs? tossup

In 2008, dems will at least pick up 5!

Yeah, of course, you keep dreamin buddy
At least 5 seats?  Maybe 5 once the elections actually start to unfold a modest gain is the most anyone could logical predict for either party.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Maybe its a bit early, but here is a possible map for 2008:

Pickups:
LA: Although she is seen as a moderate, Landrieu took a big hit in popularity after Hurricane Katrina.  If he opts to run for this seat instead of against Blanco, Bobby Jindal would easily defeat her.

CO: Wayne Allard is very conservative and very controversial, and not very well-liked.  On the other hand, Mark Udall is a moderate new-comer w/a long family history who should dispose of him.

NJ: Frank Lautenberg is on of the most unpopular senators.  NJ remains w/OH as the only state that has a governor and two Senators w/negative approvals.  NJ has a wealth of candidates including Morris county freeholder John Murphy who suprised many w/his showing in the 2005 gubenatorial primary.  The only controversial Steve Lonegan who has gained national name recognition for his "English-only" ballot intititive.  He is very conservative, but continually wins election as mayor in a liberal town.  And don't count Tom Kean Sr. out who would handily crush Lautenberg.  Kean Sr. was actually considering a governor's run in 2005.

Close Seats that Could Switch:

SD: After John Thune was able to knock-off popular incumbent Tom Daschle, this is not impossible.  I just don't think SD has another credible candidate to run.

AR: Pryor is a moderate and Arkansas is still very locally Democratic, he should be able to hold on.  Similar to this year's Maria Cantwell

TX: Cornyn isn't incredibly popular but he is an incumbent in TX

MA: If Kerry retires, the GOP has a healthy field of candidates, but it is MA

WV: Shelley Capito Moore could give Rockerfeller a run for his money, but only time will tell

AK: If Ted Stevens retires, a race between his son Ben Stevens and Tony Knowles would be interesting.  But Knowles, coming off a senator and a gubenatorial defeat might not run.

That is about all the seats I see in play

Comments?

If you look at local polls or anything but survey usa, Lautenberg has a +15-20 approval rating. Also, by 2008, Governor Corzine is likely to be very popular. This seat is safely democratic. You also over estimate Tom Kean Sr.  Hes done with, old, and retired. There arent really any other GOP candidates out there who are currently in politics unless a businessman appears who are strong.

I'm radical and opininated, this guy is nuts.  To assume Corzine will keep much more popular is absurd, he is continually getting less popular by the day.  Menendez is toast, Lautenberg wait and see.  Menendez could still win, but Kean should pull this one off.

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't it a near certainty that Lautenberg will retire in '08?  I mean, he already retired once, and only got drawn back in because of Toricelli's ethics problems.  Why wouldn't he want to retire again?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Isn't it a near certainty that Lautenberg will retire in '08?  I mean, he already retired once, and only got drawn back in because of Toricelli's ethics problems.  Why wouldn't he want to retire again?

As stated earlier in the thread, Lautenberg has already announced he will run in 2008 stating retiring in 2000 was, "the worst decision of his life."