CO-03: Why did Scott Tipton lose his primary?

[Greedo punched first]

He was even endorsed by Trump. What made GOP voters turn against him?

[coloradocowboi]

I've spent a lot of time on the Western slope and in Southern CO, and it's a place that is more interested in Trumpism than Trump himself.

It's chock-full of anti-vaxxers, weird fundamentalists, black helicopter weirdos, "libertarians," and other hard-right "populists." It's a frontier region, so a lot of "individualists" (i.e. anti-society types) flock there and because of the relatively low percent of the population that is evangelical and somewhat small corporate community, this group of people makes up a surprisingly large percentage of politically active conservatives in the region. Their only real competing interest with the local gop is oil and gas, which frankly dgaf who is in office so long as they are a republican who hates the environment, and also plays both sides with campaign $ as a backup anyway--which I say only to point out that Tipton was their guy but they spent nothing rly to save him because they knew if anything whatever loon knocked him would be equally as horrible on climate as he was.

And that was his mistake. He made his issue "standing up for oil and gas" which is actually probably about the one useful thing any Republican could do in the region now that the state has turned blue, but alas most people dgaf about that actually. It's nowhere near as salient of an issue as loyalty to Trump, hating AOC and "socialism," hating Black and Latino people, or even BS like "backing the blue" or "building the wall." He was vulnerable because he was a naked plutocrat, and he couldn't understand who his voters were.

Meanwhile, Lauren was a clout chaser. She loved attention, especially in the conservative social media public sphere, and she pursued it doggedly. The Beto thing was brilliant in that she is so proudly stupid, but it earned her the admiration of the unfortunately statistically significant portion of the primary electorate in her district that relates to that, so she started trending more and more on social. Scott Tipton, in his hubris, never bothered monitoring anything like that, probably hired some Denver firm to do horrible polling on landlines or something, and got caught sleeping at the wheel by someone with a talent for the kind of politics that succeeds right now, and sadly a primary electorate that wass very receptive to her message or whatever you want to call it.

What's really sad is that this district also has so much to offer the world. There are so many beautiful places that do need protecting (and actually a very sizeable portion of the 3rd's electorate is deeply motivated by this), there is Mesa Verde--one of the most underrated wonders of the world, a unique and endangered Hispanic culture and tradition, some of the best skiing in the world, a ton of really cool and nice people who love nature and are polyamorous and smoke weed and be vegan etc. But there is also undeniably an enormous, far-right, gun-obsessed, xenophobic, honestly fascist streak here. There are people who think that freedom is a scarce commodity and theirs (which they don't have anyway living in f'ing grand junction working at cvs making 10$ an hour or w/e the CO minimum wage is and no healthcare) must be protected by force. Lauren is their representative, and--for now--between them and the oil people and other right wing interests they can cobble together a majority in this district.

[Greedo punched first]

Does the district have a ridiculously high number of anti-vaxxers?

[Spectator]

I've spent a lot of time on the Western slope and in Southern CO, and it's a place that is more interested in Trumpism than Trump himself.

It's chock-full of anti-vaxxers, weird fundamentalists, black helicopter weirdos, "libertarians," and other hard-right "populists." It's a frontier region, so a lot of "individualists" (i.e. anti-society types) flock there and because of the relatively low percent of the population that is evangelical and somewhat small corporate community, this group of people makes up a surprisingly large percentage of politically active conservatives in the region. Their only real competing interest with the local gop is oil and gas, which frankly dgaf who is in office so long as they are a republican who hates the environment, and also plays both sides with campaign $ as a backup anyway--which I say only to point out that Tipton was their guy but they spent nothing rly to save him because they knew if anything whatever loon knocked him would be equally as horrible on climate as he was.

And that was his mistake. He made his issue "standing up for oil and gas" which is actually probably about the one useful thing any Republican could do in the region now that the state has turned blue, but alas most people dgaf about that actually. It's nowhere near as salient of an issue as loyalty to Trump, hating AOC and "socialism," hating Black and Latino people, or even BS like "backing the blue" or "building the wall." He was vulnerable because he was a naked plutocrat, and he couldn't understand who his voters were.

Meanwhile, Lauren was a clout chaser. She loved attention, especially in the conservative social media public sphere, and she pursued it doggedly. The Beto thing was brilliant in that she is so proudly stupid, but it earned her the admiration of the unfortunately statistically significant portion of the primary electorate in her district that relates to that, so she started trending more and more on social. Scott Tipton, in his hubris, never bothered monitoring anything like that, probably hired some Denver firm to do horrible polling on landlines or something, and got caught sleeping at the wheel by someone with a talent for the kind of politics that succeeds right now, and sadly a primary electorate that wass very receptive to her message or whatever you want to call it.

What's really sad is that this district also has so much to offer the world. There are so many beautiful places that do need protecting (and actually a very sizeable portion of the 3rd's electorate is deeply motivated by this), there is Mesa Verde--one of the most underrated wonders of the world, a unique and endangered Hispanic culture and tradition, some of the best skiing in the world, a ton of really cool and nice people who love nature and are polyamorous and smoke weed and be vegan etc. But there is also undeniably an enormous, far-right, gun-obsessed, xenophobic, honestly fascist streak here. There are people who think that freedom is a scarce commodity and theirs (which they don't have anyway living in f'ing grand junction working at cvs making 10$ an hour or w/e the CO minimum wage is and no healthcare) must be protected by force. Lauren is their representative, and--for now--between them and the oil people and other right wing interests they can cobble together a majority in this district.

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

[coloradocowboi]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

I wonder if the democratic party meetings are as awkward as i'm imagining it. Bunch of working class latinos,Yuppie rich skiers and hippies making awkward small-talk.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

-snip-

I've long had a dream about moving to Durango one day, or somewhere close, upon completing my Master's.

If she's still representing this district by that time, maybe I should change plans.

[Greedo punched first]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

I wonder if the democratic party meetings are as awkward as i'm imagining it. Bunch of working class latinos,Yuppie rich skiers and hippies making awkward small-talk.

The GOP meetings are also awkward.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Because Republicans are f**king nuts.

[coloradocowboi]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

I wonder if the democratic party meetings are as awkward as i'm imagining it. Bunch of working class latinos,Yuppie rich skiers and hippies making awkward small-talk.

The GOP meetings are also awkward.

Well and they come in contact. Pueblo Democrats never really encounter Aspen Democrats except at like the CD3 convention.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

I wonder if the democratic party meetings are as awkward as i'm imagining it. Bunch of working class latinos,Yuppie rich skiers and hippies making awkward small-talk.

The GOP meetings are also awkward.

Well and they come in contact. Pueblo Democrats never really encounter Aspen Democrats except at like the CD3 convention.

There's no like county split between both types of democrats ?

[coloradocowboi]

I’m curious if you think Donald Valdez has a good chance? I think he seems like a stronger candidate than Kerry Donovan on paper. Democrats already tried the white liberal mom already here, and she ended up doing worse than Biden did. Valdez represents the southern part of the state, and really the only area of the state that’s trending away from Democrats. He won a number of counties that Trump won last year, like Huerfano, Conejos, and Alamosa.

I don't think so. The San Luis Valley is such a small part of the district in terms of population, it just looms large in everybody's imagination because of its association with the Salazars and cultural uniqueness. But I'm not even convinced that what plays well there would play that well in Pueblo, let alone the actual voter rich centers in the district for Dems--bougie resort towns and hippy havens.

I'm just not sure any Dem can win the current district though, given that they would have to max out appeal to two populations that are often really at odds: working class, culturally conservative, English speaking Latinos and highly-educated, wealthy white people living Instagram lives along the I-70 corridor.

I wonder if the democratic party meetings are as awkward as i'm imagining it. Bunch of working class latinos,Yuppie rich skiers and hippies making awkward small-talk.

The GOP meetings are also awkward.

Well and they come in contact. Pueblo Democrats never really encounter Aspen Democrats except at like the CD3 convention.

There's no like county split between both types of democrats ?

I mean there are working class Hispanics in Durango and rich white liberals and probably even like DSA types. But with the exception of La Plata and maybeeee Gunnison, no not really. If anything, the county most like that would be Adams. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Because cults are like drugs.  At a certain point voting for people who advocate mildly deranged stuff isn't quite enough.  You need a bigger and bigger fix. 

[Greedo punched first]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

[coloradocowboi]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

[Greedo punched first]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

[coloradocowboi]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

Right now, Grand County is lobbying to be included in Boebert's district with other Western slope counties. On face value, this would be a boon to her because it's long been a GOP stronghold. But the area is gentrifying rapidly (was just in Grand Lake last weekend and it was full of Denver refugees), and long-term will probably go blue like other resort counties. If they chop off the south and put in Grand County, she would probably be more likely to go down imo. Will be interesting to see though...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

Right now, Grand County is lobbying to be included in Boebert's district with other Western slope counties. On face value, this would be a boon to her because it's long been a GOP stronghold. But the area is gentrifying rapidly (was just in Grand Lake last weekend and it was full of Denver refugees), and long-term will probably go blue like other resort counties. If they chop off the south and put in Grand County, she would probably be more likely to go down imo. Will be interesting to see though...

Is this your district ?

[Calthrina950]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

Right now, Grand County is lobbying to be included in Boebert's district with other Western slope counties. On face value, this would be a boon to her because it's long been a GOP stronghold. But the area is gentrifying rapidly (was just in Grand Lake last weekend and it was full of Denver refugees), and long-term will probably go blue like other resort counties. If they chop off the south and put in Grand County, she would probably be more likely to go down imo. Will be interesting to see though...

Trump won Grand County by less than 2% (49.5-47.7%), and early returns on Election Night did have the county in the Democratic column for a time. I actually thought Biden had carried it until that following morning. I wouldn't be surprised if Grand County votes Democratic in 2024.

[coloradocowboi]

Is this your district ?

Sadly, no. Jimmy Gomez is currently my congressman cuz I am living in California.

I grew up in Westminster and was repped by Polis or Perlmutter most of my adult life.

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

Right now, Grand County is lobbying to be included in Boebert's district with other Western slope counties. On face value, this would be a boon to her because it's long been a GOP stronghold. But the area is gentrifying rapidly (was just in Grand Lake last weekend and it was full of Denver refugees), and long-term will probably go blue like other resort counties. If they chop off the south and put in Grand County, she would probably be more likely to go down imo. Will be interesting to see though...

Trump won Grand County by less than 2% (49.5-47.7%), and early returns on Election Night did have the county in the Democratic column for a time. I actually thought Biden had carried it until that following morning. I wouldn't be surprised if Grand County votes Democratic in 2024.

Which tbh is shocking to me. In the town of Fraser, there was a sign up for over a decade saying "Obama didn't build this!" (in response to his famous "you didn't build this" misattribution).

[One Term Floridian]

Surely CO Dems will try to oust Lauren Boobhurt next year. Not that R of a district really and they control redistributing there too

[Calthrina950]

Surely CO Dems will try to oust Lauren Boobhurt next year. Not that R of a district really and they control redistributing there too

Colorado has an independent commission now, created by Amendments Y and Z in 2018, that is responsible for drawing our congressional districts.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would Tipton have won his primary if his district was bluer?

I don't know, but I don't think so. One of the CO GOP's big problems is that the base here is actually a massive part of the total population. The state is becoming increasingly polarized, especially as educated voters flee the GOP. Open primaries were supposed to make it better, but all the evidence would suggest moderate independents show up to vote for moderate Democrats and the indies who vote GOP are "populist" types.

His defeat wasn’t because his district got redder?

District got bluer, Trended blue with a 6 point swing towards Biden from 2016. On paper Boeber should be vunerable if the district retains a similar lean in 2022 but the democratic coallations as previously outlined is flunky split between working class hispanics and rich toursity liberals.

Right now, Grand County is lobbying to be included in Boebert's district with other Western slope counties. On face value, this would be a boon to her because it's long been a GOP stronghold. But the area is gentrifying rapidly (was just in Grand Lake last weekend and it was full of Denver refugees), and long-term will probably go blue like other resort counties. If they chop off the south and put in Grand County, she would probably be more likely to go down imo. Will be interesting to see though...

Didn't she outperform Trump, I'm wondering if she's actualy going to underperform in the midterms. Seems like her kind of politics will get a lot of base turnout.

[SnowLabrador]

Surely CO Dems will try to oust Lauren Boobhurt next year. Not that R of a district really and they control redistributing there too

Colorado has an independent commission now, created by Amendments Y and Z in 2018, that is responsible for drawing our congressional districts.

Hopefully they ignore it. Democrats shouldn't unilaterally disarm when the GOP is determined to overturn the 2024 election if the Democrat wins.