Which Senate race are Republicans more likely to blow?

[VAR]

I'm going to go against the conventional wisdom and say NC. The state was only 1-2 points to the right of AZ and has a naturally higher Democratic floor. The R candidate in NC is already likely to be weak, whereas in AZ, the field is wide open and Brnovich or Yee would be perfectly acceptable to the base.

Ah, who am I kidding? its obviously qelli ward's az gop

[Lognog]

The NC candidates are very far right, but they are certainly no Kelli Wards (or Gosar or Biggs). Plus, AZ is now considerably bluer than NC

[MT Treasurer]

Uh, have you completely lost your mind? Did I not tell you about my Biden-/Schumer-hating, tutu-wearing aunt from Glendale and her grading system? She just sent me the latest evaluation sheets for Biggs and Kelly and it’s ugly, just ugly for the GOP.

Quoting her verbatim: "Look, I think Biden is way more liberal than he promised to be, I hate everything Mark Kelly has voted for, and Chuck Schumer needs to go, but kiddo, Kelly's a solid A-tier candidate who knows what he’s doing, and Kelli Ward just retweeted Breitbart on Twitter."

IF Doug Ducey changes his mind and runs for Senate (and only if), Mark Kelly's campaign might instantaneously implode and he’d lose by 0.12%, but until then, it wiil require a GOP tidal wave to even make this race remotely competitive tbh imo. Biggs? Brnovich? Those guys can’t hold a candle to Lara Trump and Pat McCrory in perpetually R+1.341508794 NC, and last time I checked, Jackson and Smith aren’t AstroNUTs.

[WD]

Uh, have you completely lost your mind? Did I not tell you about my Biden-/Schumer-hating, tutu-wearing aunt from Glendale and her grading system? She just sent me the latest evaluation sheets for Biggs and Kelly and it’s ugly, just ugly for the GOP.

Quoting her verbatim: "Look, I think Biden is way more liberal than he promised to be, I hate everything Mark Kelly has voted for, and Chuck Schumer needs to go, but kiddo, Kelly's a solid A-tier candidate who knows what he’s doing, and Kelli Ward just retweeted Breitbart on Twitter."

IF Doug Ducey changes his mind and runs for Senate (and only if), Mark Kelly's campaign might instantaneously implode and he’d lose by 0.12%, but until then, it wiil require a GOP tidal wave to even make this race remotely competitive tbh imo. Biggs? Brnovich? Those guys can’t hold a candle to Lara Trump and Pat McCrory in perpetually R+1.341508794 NC, and last time I checked, Jackson and Smith aren’t AstroNUTs.

Even if they were, they’d still lose TITANIUM TILT R NC by 1.2937302843901 point

[MT Treasurer]

Even if they were, they’d still lose TITANIUM TILT R NC by R+1.2937302843901

All kidding aside, I like how people are now acting like NC is a considerably more R state than WI/AZ just because Biden barely lost the former while narrowly winning the other two states. Even the House PV (which I realize isn’t a perfect metric, but certainly more pertinent here than in IA) was as D in NC as in AZ and more D than in WI even after you adjust for the uncontested NC-12. Yes, Republicans can’t afford to lose much more ground in Maricopa, but I’d be sounding the alarm bells over some of those internal swings/trends & population shifts in NC if I was a Republican strategist. There’s a feasible path to winning back AZ (with some combination of clawing back lost ground among seniors and R-leaning independents, making slight inroads into the Hispanic vote, attracting more R transplants/retirees than NC, maybe narrowing D margins in the Native American areas) and at least keeping that state competitive, but once those TX-style margins in exurban NC start drifting toward GA-type margins, it’s going to be hard for the GOP to retain NC. Their long-term viability in NC is really on a knife-edge at this point because it’s very doubtful that the rural areas can save them in the long run. Republicans also performed better in down-ballot races in AZ/Maricopa County than Trump, and while local races indeed aren’t always comparable to federal elections, it does feel like Trump was a particulary bad R candidate for AZ. This doesn’t mean that AZ isn’t trending D, but I don’t think it’s headed the way of GA either, at least not yet.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans should be more worried about AZ than NC — they should be equally if not more concerned about the electoral trajectory of NC than that of AZ.

[WD]

Even if they were, they’d still lose TITANIUM TILT R NC by R+1.2937302843901

All kidding aside, I like how people are now acting like NC is a considerably more R state than WI/AZ just because Biden barely lost the former while narrowly winning the other two states. Even the House PV (which I realize isn’t a perfect metric, but certainly more pertinent here than in IA) was as D in NC as in AZ and more D than in WI even after you adjust for the uncontested NC-12. Yes, Republicans can’t afford to lose much more ground in Maricopa, but I’d be sounding the alarm bells over some of those internal swings/trends & population shifts in NC if I was a Republican strategist. There’s a feasible path to winning back AZ (with some combination of clawing back lost ground among seniors and R-leaning independents, making slight inroads into the Hispanic vote, attracting more R transplants/retirees than NC, maybe narrowing D margins in the Native American areas) and at least keeping that state competitive, but once those TX-style margins in exurban NC start drifting toward GA-type margins, it’s going to be hard for the GOP to retain NC. Their long-term viability in NC is really on a knife-edge at this point because it’s very doubtful that the rural areas can save them in the long run. Republicans also performed better in down-ballot races in AZ/Maricopa County than Trump, and while local races indeed aren’t always comparable to federal elections, it does feel like Trump was a particulary bad R candidate for AZ. This doesn’t mean that AZ isn’t trending D, but I don’t think it’s headed the way of GA either, at least not yet.

I strongly disagree with the notion that Republicans should be more worried about AZ than NC — they should be equally if not more concerned about the electoral trajectory of NC than that of AZ.

Agreed completely. If the shifts seen in places like Cabarrus continue, NC won’t be “Titanium Tilt R” for much longer. It also shouldn’t be too surprising if Biden wins the state in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't winning NC Biden has the exact same approvals he had on Election night and he lost FL by 3 pts and DeSantis is losing by 6

Obviously, it's NH, Scott Brown was a popular moderate and list on Election night to SHAHEEN, Sununu is gonna lose, Hassan is still popular and we have 500 days til Election

McCrory is gonna beat Socialisic BEASLEY unfortunately

aZ is the obvious answer

[Devils30]

AZ has all the makings of a GOP recruiting flop such as a fringe candidate like Gosar or Biggs or someone who can't raise any money.

[VAR]

AZ has all the makings of a GOP recruiting flop such as a fringe candidate like Gosar or Biggs or someone who can't raise any money.

As if fringe candidates don't exist in North Carolina...

[OSR stands with Israel]

AZ has all the makings of a GOP recruiting flop such as a fringe candidate like Gosar or Biggs or someone who can't raise any money.

As if fringe candidates don't exist in North Carolina...

NC is around 2 points more republican than AZ and has less swing voters too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's get real, Jeff Jackson is more electable than Beasley whom will lose to Pat McCrory.

If D's are down by 6 in FL and lost the state by 3 pts and, then NC is gonna be more R than it was in 2020, it's simple math.  Jackson is the only electable one in NC not Beasley and even WARNOCK may indeed lose to Herchel Walker whom is leading 47/45 and is like Kayne West

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Uh, have you completely lost your mind? Did I not tell you about my Biden-/Schumer-hating, tutu-wearing aunt from Glendale and her grading system? She just sent me the latest evaluation sheets for Biggs and Kelly and it’s ugly, just ugly for the GOP.

Quoting her verbatim: "Look, I think Biden is way more liberal than he promised to be, I hate everything Mark Kelly has voted for, and Chuck Schumer needs to go, but kiddo, Kelly's a solid A-tier candidate who knows what he’s doing, and Kelli Ward just retweeted Breitbart on Twitter."

IF Doug Ducey changes his mind and runs for Senate (and only if), Mark Kelly's campaign might instantaneously implode and he’d lose by 0.12%, but until then, it wiil require a GOP tidal wave to even make this race remotely competitive tbh imo. Biggs? Brnovich? Those guys can’t hold a candle to Lara Trump and Pat McCrory in perpetually R+1.341508794 NC, and last time I checked, Jackson and Smith aren’t AstroNUTs.

Wait, is your aunt Kyrsten Sinema?

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going to say Wisconsin.

Ron Johnson seems to be doing everything possible to lose the election, and he may not even run for reelection.

What is the Republican bench if he doesn't?

[Roll Roons]

What is the Republican bench if he doesn't?

Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil.

[Xing]

I get that North Carolina's "persistent Republican lean" is exaggerated, but since Arizona is also trending Democratic (at a slower rate than initially thought, but still), it makes sense to assume that, all things being equal, Arizona will vote left of North Carolina. While Yee would probably be a better candidate than McCrory or Trump, I'm not sure it will make enough of a difference to make NC-SEN more winnable than AZ-SEN for Democrats (though it could make that race more likely to flip than PA-SEN and WI-SEN.) It's also yet to be seen how good of a candidate Jackson or Beasley would be. Memes aside, Kelly isn't a bad candidate, so I'd still give him a better chance of winning, even if he's a slight underdog right now.

[Devils30]

I get that North Carolina's "persistent Republican lean" is exaggerated, but since Arizona is also trending Democratic (at a slower rate than initially thought, but still), it makes sense to assume that, all things being equal, Arizona will vote left of North Carolina. While Yee would probably be a better candidate than McCrory or Trump, I'm not sure it will make enough of a difference to make NC-SEN more winnable than AZ-SEN for Democrats (though it could make that race more likely to flip than PA-SEN and WI-SEN.) It's also yet to be seen how good of a candidate Jackson or Beasley would be. Memes aside, Kelly isn't a bad candidate, so I'd still give him a better chance of winning, even if he's a slight underdog right now.

AZ's trend isn't that slow, it went from R+13 relative to the popular vote to R+4. That's still a solid 9% Democratic trend in 8 years.

[Xing]

I get that North Carolina's "persistent Republican lean" is exaggerated, but since Arizona is also trending Democratic (at a slower rate than initially thought, but still), it makes sense to assume that, all things being equal, Arizona will vote left of North Carolina. While Yee would probably be a better candidate than McCrory or Trump, I'm not sure it will make enough of a difference to make NC-SEN more winnable than AZ-SEN for Democrats (though it could make that race more likely to flip than PA-SEN and WI-SEN.) It's also yet to be seen how good of a candidate Jackson or Beasley would be. Memes aside, Kelly isn't a bad candidate, so I'd still give him a better chance of winning, even if he's a slight underdog right now.

AZ's trend isn't that slow, it went from R+13 relative to the popular vote to R+4. That's still a solid 9% Democratic trend in 8 years.

Much more of that trend happened from 2012-2016, though, so the trend hasn’t been as fast more recently.

[MillennialModerate]

Obviously Arizona.

GOP is favored there but it’s very close.

North Carolina is consistently been fools gold since Obama’s win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously Arizona.

GOP is favored there but it’s very close.

North Carolina is consistently been fools gold since Obama’s win.

Rs aren't fav against Kelly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They polled the primary in NC but refused to poll a GE matchup, which was silly

[xavier110]

Obviously AZ. The party loyalists are about as dumb, violent, and did I mention dumb as you can get. Expect some wack-a-doo nominees who claim Trump is still president, COVID was a hoax, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen a NC GE Senate poll which is a shame because D's are dumping Jackson over BEASLEY

[Figueira]

Obviously Arizona.

GOP is favored there but it’s very close.

North Carolina is consistently been fools gold since Obama’s win.

I agree that Arizona is the answer here, but "fools' gold" is a useless term in politics. PA, MI, WI (for the GOP), AZ, and GA (for the Dems) were all fools' gold, until they weren't.

[Socani]

In the following order: PA, WI, NC, and OH as a dark horse.

[Vosem]

I'm going to go ahead and agree with you. Some early indicators of Biden's approval rating are that he's holding up poorly in the Southwest. The possible Republican contenders in Arizona (Brnovich, Masters, Landau, and Ducey reconsidering are commonly cited) all seem pretty strong, while the Republicans in North Carolina are coalescing around a Governor who lost reelection in a good year and an accidental Congressman who won his first primary with 20%.

(To be clear, I think NC-Sen is a likelier Republican win than AZ-Sen because AZ-Sen has a Democratic incumbent. But which race are Republicans likelier to blow, ie, lose because the nominee says or does something stupid or doesn't put enough effort in? NC actually seems a hair likelier.)