Alberta Municipal Elections, Referendum(s), and Senate Nominee Election: October 18, 2021

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the equalization referendum will act as a kind of leadership review of Kenney? If he loses the referendum, do you think he might resign?

[Hatman 🍁]

It won't be long before wards are bigger than federal ridings too. Then things would be truly ridiculous.

Anyway, what is the current ideological breakdown of the two city's councils? Do you have a bloc that consistently votes with the mayor like we do in Ottawa? Or are things a bit more fluid?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

Small city councils are the norm in western North America; whereas Montreal has 65 members in its city council and Toronto formerly had 44, Winnipeg has 15 and Vancouver has 11. Similarly, in the United States, there are 9 city council members in Seattle, 11 each in San Francisco and San Jose, and 15 in Los Angeles.

As Njall mentioned, smaller city councils are perceived as less expensive than larger ones; it's hard to imagine that voters would decide that this perceived expense is worth whatever benefits come from having a councillor who represents fewer constituents. For the same reason that reducing the size of the legislature is an obvious populist campaign tactic everywhere, the Ontario government cut the size of the Toronto city council by nearly half a few years ago.

Fun fact: Winnipeg's city council used to have 50 members. They were not full time though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump!

Gondek seems to have taken the lead in recent polling

Janet Brown: Gondek 40, Farkas 32, Davison 11, Field 4
Leger: Gondek 26, Farkas 24, Davison 12, Field 5
Spadina:Gondek 31, Farkas, 30, Field 8, Davison 7

Davison's vote seems to be collapsing into Farkas' though, which will make this a close race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks so much for this, Njall. It will make following the results much easier

[Hatman 🍁]

Will be interesting to see what the geographic patterns will be for the DST referendum. I suspect there will be a rural urban divide.

[Hatman 🍁]

Were any former NDP MLAs elected to anything (assuming that any ran for anything.)

AFAIK the only former NDP MLA to run for anything was Annie McKitrick in Strathcona County. She finished 4th in her mayoral run.

[Hatman 🍁]

The DST referendum results are/will be fascinating. As Miles mentioned, there is a north/south divide, probably due to when the Sun rises. I wonder if there will also be a rural/urban divide.

So far, out of the top 10 municipalities, only Edmonton, Wood Buffalo and Airdrie aren't reporting results. Of the 7 remaining municipalities, "No" leads 51.1% to 48.9%. Very close so far, but one would expect Edmonton to be even more against than Calgary, as it's further north.

Municipalities by %No:

St. Albert: 57.7%
Grande Prairie: 56.0%
Strathcona County: 54.3%
Okotoks:* 52.3%
Calgary: 51.5%
--
Stony Plain:* 48.8%
Lethbridge: 48.8%
Camrose:* 46.9% 
Red Deer: 45.4%
Medicine Hat: 38.2%

* Outside the top 10 largest municipalities