Alberta Municipal Elections, Referendum(s), and Senate Nominee Election: October 18, 2021

[Njall]

Since we're now just over five months out from election day and municipal candidates are beginning to campaign more actively, I figured that it was about time to start a thread on the numerous votes Albertans will be facing on October 18th. Every municipal council and (public and Catholic) school board in the province will be holding elections, with the sole exception of the City of Lloydminster, which follows Saskatchewan's municipal election cycle.

A Word on the Referendum(s) and Senate Nominee Election

These contests are being included in this thread as voters will be casting their ballots for these on the same day as the municipal elections. For those who don't know, Alberta previously held numerous non-binding elections for "Senate Nominees," who the provincial government would encourage the federal government to subsequently appoint to the Senate. Although the elections weren't binding, five of the ten nominees who were selected in past elections did end up being appointed to the Senate by politically-likeminded Prime Ministers, including current Senators Doung Black and Scott Tannas. While the NDP government allowed the Senatorial Elections Act to expire during their term, the UCP government passed legislation last year to re-introduce Senate Nominee elections. This election is largely expected to be a political stunt, and is more cynically seen as a tool to get more conservative voters to the municipal election polls. The NDP and Liberals are both expected to sit this out, as the NDP has never contested Senate Elections due to their position on Senate abolition, and the Liberals no longer support the concept of partisan Senators. I absolutely expect whoever the Conservative candidate is to win, and to never be appointed to the Senate, at least as long as Trudeau remains PM.

The UCP government has also scheduled another political stunt for October 18th: a referendum (purportedly) on equalization. Premier Jason Kenney, playing into age-old discontent with equalization amongst conservative voters in the province, has stated his belief that a referendum with a large mandate against equalization will force the federal government to negotiate a new formula. He's basing this on court rulings regarding Quebec independence referendums, but I don't personally think he has much of a legal argument to stand on. The Premier has also left the doors open to adding other referendums to the ballot, on measures from abolishing daylight savings time to leaving the Canada Pension Plan or establishing an Alberta Provincial Police force to replace the RCMP. None of these have been formally acted upon yet, however.


Municipal Campaign Finance Changes

As some of you know, up to and including 2017, Alberta's municipal elections had quite loose campaign finance regulations, at least by Canadian standards, and certainly compared to those in place provincially and federally. Candidates could receive corporate and union donations, in addition to individual donations, and these could come from anywhere in the province. Understandably given a municipal council's jurisdiction, many of the corporate and union donations came from property developers and unions representing municipal employees. Each person/corporation/union could donate up to $5,000 per candidate, per year. This meant that if a candidate registered as early as they could (for example, in January of 2014 to contest the election in October of 2017), as many incumbent councillors would do, they could raise up to $20,000 from each donor over the course of the 4-year cycle. Candidates were also not required to disclose their donors prior to election day, although some chose to do so voluntarily.

In 2018, the NDP government passed a sweeping overhaul of the municipal campaign finance system. Specifically:

• Fundraising was only permitted during the campaign period (the start of the year of the election until election day, so January 1-October 18, 2021)
• Corporate and union donations were banned
• Donors were limited to contributing $4,000 in total, between as many or as few candidates as desired
• Disclosure of donors by election day was made a requirement
• An allowance was made for the municipal affairs minister to impose spending limits through regulation
• Third-party advertisers (PACs) had spending limits and disclosure requirements imposed, modelled on the requirements in place provincially

However, after the UCP took government (and after getting into dust-ups with municipal councils over numerous policy decisions which negatively impacted many municipalities' revenues), they dismantled a lot of the NDP's work in this area. The ban on corporate and union donations was maintained, as was the allowance for the minister to impose spending limits (although as of yet, the minister has declined to impose any spending limits). The ban on fundraising outside of the campaign period was mostly maintained too, albeit with an allowance to raise up to $5,000 per year and self-contribute up to $10,000 per year in the pre-campaign period. Contribution limits for donors were greatly expanded though, from up to $4,000 across all candidates to up to $5,000 per candidate, to an unlimited number of candidates. If someone wished, as pointless as it would likely be, they could donate $5,000 to every single council and school board candidate in the province. Disclosure rules were also weakened, with the UCP removing the requirement to disclose donors before election day and returning to the previous state where disclosures had to be received by the municipality by March following the election, almost 5 months after. Further still, although I forget the specific details, many of the regulations regarding third-party advertisers were removed, creating the potential for lots of dark money to be involved in these elections. The UCP also added a new rule, effectively banning candidates from carrying campaign surpluses over into future campaigns (specifically, the legislation requires that surpluses above $1,000 be donated to charity).

With all of that out of the way, let's move on to an overview of the marquee municipal elections in Edmonton and Calgary...


Calgary Election Overview

Calgary made changes to its Ward map in advance of the election, although most changes were relatively minor. The city actually made a pretty neat "story map" about it, linked here. A static map of the new boundaries can be found here.

Mayor

Three-term progressive Mayor Naheed Nenshi is retiring after 11 years at the helm of the City. There are currently 14 candidates in the race, although the two leading candidates at this point are Ward 3 Councillor Jyoti Gondek and Ward 11 Councillor Jeromy Farkas, both of whom are in their first terms on city council.

Gondek is a centrist, broadly speaking, and a victory for her would be seen as a victory for the municipal political "establishment." She's publicly described as somewhat of a "female Nenshi," as they are both highly intelligent (I would even say technocratic) policymakers of visible South Asian descent. She is a turn more conservative than Nenshi, but aligns with him on a lot of policy matters. If elected, she would also be Calgary's first female Mayor.

Farkas is a solid conservative (on the binary one-dimension axis from progressive to conservative), although it would be more accurate to describe him as a libertarian populist. He rose to prominence in the last election criticizing a supposed lack of transparency at City Hall and promising to "bring back common sense." As a Councillor, he's never let an opportunity to rile people up go to waste, which has led to widespread condemnation by many of his council colleagues for spreading misinformation. As a result, he's been much more successful at being a voice for Calgarians who are perpetually annoyed at City Hall than he has been at getting change through City Council, where he is often (or at least more often than his colleagues) one of the only, if not the only, dissenting votes on a range of matters.

Outside of the two incumbent Councillors, the candidate who has gotten the most attention so far is a businessman named Brad Field, who seems to be positioning himself as a moderate-to-moderate-conservative, ideologically between Gondek and Farkas, and is campaigning as a populist outsider. This can be seen by his "Clean Up Silly Hall" campaign, as well as his pledge to only serve two terms.

Only one poll has been done so far, commissioned in January by the populist conservative online news outlet The Western Standard. As it was before Nenshi's intentions were announced, he was included as a candidate. The results had Nenshi at 34% and Farkas at 30%, with Gondek at 6%, Field at 2%, and 22% undecided. It is likely that with Nenshi out, a majority of his support would transfer to Gondek.

Ward 1

Two-term conservative incumbent Councillor Ward Sutherland is seeking re-election to a in this suburban northwest ward. He was elected to his second term in 2017 with 45% of the vote (as a point of interest, the second place candidate in that race was Coral Bliss Taylor, who received 33%, and would go on to serve as the interim leader of the Alberta Green Party). He currently has two registered opponents, although as an incumbent, he is likely favoured at this point.

Ward 2

Two-term conservative incumbent Councillor Joe Magliocca is the only incumbent councillor who has not yet announced if he will seek re-election in his suburban northwest ward. Magliocca has been one of the "three amigos" (a term coined by former UCP municipal affairs minister Kaycee Madu) of conservative populists on council this term, alongside Farkas and Ward 4 Councillor Sean Chu. Magliocca had previously openly mused about running for Mayor, but in 2020 he came under fire for thousands of dollars in improper travel expenses. In 2017, he was re-elected with 49% of the vote. The second place finisher in 2017, Jennifer Wyness, who received 36% of the vote, is one of the five registered candidates in the ward.

Ward 3

As incumbent centrist Councillor Jyoti Gondek is running for Mayor, this ward in suburban north-central Calgary is an open seat. There are currently six candidates registered, although the only name that I recognize is Nate Pike, a paramedic who ran as the Alberta Party candidate in Calgary-North East in the 2019 provincial election.

Ward 4

Two-term incumbent conservative Councillor Sean Chu is seeking re-election in this north-central ward which bridges the gap between suburban and more inner-city communities (it's one of only three wards which doesn't touch the city boundary). As mentioned above, Chu was one of the three conservative populist "three amigos" during this past council. In 2017, Chu was re-elected with 48% of the vote, although progressive challenger Greg Miller was close behind with 41%. While Miller isn't running again, I wanted to mention the close margin because Chu faced a stark geographic divide in his last election, and the ward boundary changes may impact him negatively. In 2017, all of the communities south of Nose Hill Park voted for Miller, while those in the north voted for Chu. The northern communities, particularly on the west and north sides of Nose Hill Park, also have significant Chinese populations, and anecdotally, I've heard that Chu campaigns in Mandarin at Chinese households, telling them that they "need to stick together." Anyways, two communities which supported Chu last time, MacEwan Glen and Sandstone Valley, were moved to Ward 3, and were replaced by the inner city community of Winston Heights/Mountview, which has a much more progressive voting pattern. I will be very interested to see how this race turns out.

Ward 5

One-term incumbent centrist Councillor George Chahal is running for re-election in this suburban northeast ward, which has a substantial South Asian population (some census tracts in the ward are over 50% South Asian, and under 15% White). Chahal seems relatively well-liked and has not yet attracted significant opposition, although there are two other registered candidates. Chahal was elected in 2017 with 41% of the vote; the second-place candidate (Aryan Sadat, a conservative who is running again) received 23%.

Ward 6

One-term incumbent centrist-to-conservative Councillor Jeff Davison is running for re-election in this suburban ward covering much of west Calgary. Davison was seen as a relatively solid conservative when he first ran for election, although he's taken a more centrist and non-populist stance since being elected. I would personally rank him as approximately the 6th most conservative member of the 15-person council. Davison was elected with 45% of the vote in 2017, and has only attracted one competitor so far.

Ward 7

Six-term progressive Councillor Druh Farrell is retiring from representing this inner-city ward after 20 years on city council. In the last three council terms and election cycles, Farrell has been a magnet for criticism from local conservatives. Somewhat ironically, in her last three elections, she never got more than 43% of the vote, but was consistently re-elected because of vote splitting amongst candidates to her right (not all of whom were conservatives - her top competitor last election would have been described as a Liberal in the same way Farrell could have been described as a New Democrat). Seven candidates have registered for the race so far, but it's too early to declare front-runners.

Ward 8

Two-term progressive Councillor Evan Woolley is retiring from representing this inner-city ward. Despite a strong challenge from a well-funded local conservative in 2017, Woolley was re-elected with 58% of the vote. There are currently seven candidates declared, and I cannot predict front-runners yet, although the preference of local progressives so far appears to be educator Courtney Walcott.

Ward 9

Three-term incumbent progressive Councillor Gian-Carlo Carra is running for re-election in this ward which covers parts of the inner-city and east Calgary, including the former town of Forest Lawn. Carra is historically a strong fundraiser, and won re-election in 2017 with 45% of the vote. Carra has three registered competitors so far, although none have stood out yet.

Ward 10

Eight-term centrist-to-conservative Councillor Ray Jones retired in 2020 due to health issues, after nearly a quarter-century on city council. His retirement was purposefully timed to fall just after the deadline where the city wouldn't have to hold a by-election, so there is no current incumbent for this east/northeast Calgary ward. Jones represented Ward 5 prior to 2017, but the boundary changes in advance of that election split his old ward between the new Wards 5 and 10, and he chose to run in Ward 10, where he was re-elected with 36% of the vote in a field of 11 candidates. Five candidates have currently filed to run here, the most notable being Andre Chabot, a conservative who represented the pre-2017 Ward 10 for four terms prior to running a lacklustre Mayoral campaign in 2017. Chabot's pre-2017 Ward 10 covered about half of the present Ward 10, so while he likely starts with a bit of an advantage, he will still need to put in a lot of effort to introduce himself to new potential constituents.

Ward 11

As incumbent conservative Councillor Jeromy Farkas is running for Mayor, this ward in inner-suburban south Calgary is an open seat. There are currently seven candidates registered, with the most notable so far (anecdotally, based on lawn signs - my parents live in the ward and I grew up there) are conservative Devin DeFraine and progressive Kourtney Branagan.

Ward 12

Three-term centrist incumbent Councillor Shane Keating is retiring from representing this suburban southeast ward. Keating was re-elected in 2017 with 73% of the vote, a 61 point margin over the next closest competitor, and the second-best performance of a council candidate that election. Five candidates have registered so far, including social conservative firebrand Craig Chandler - if you don't know that name, I'd recommend exploring his Wikipedia page.

Ward 13

Seven-term centrist-to-conservative incumbent Councillor Diane Colley-Urquhart is running for re-election in this suburban south ward. Although Colley-Urquhart didn't face competitive races for much of her tenure, her constituents appear to be getting a little tired of her ongoing incumbency. In 2017, she was re-elected with just 34% of the vote, as six other candidates split the remaining 66%. So far, three other candidates have filed to challenge her.

Ward 14

Finally, three-term conservative incumbent Councillor Peter Demong is running for re-election in this suburban south ward. Demong was re-elected with the widest margin of any candidate in 2017, winning 90% of the vote against a late-entering challenger who lived on the opposite side of the city. As of this point, he was only attracted one opponent, making him favoured to win re-election.

Plebiscite

I forgot to mention this when I first posted, but Calgarians will also be voting on a plebiscite asking whether or not Calgary should return to adding fluoride to its drinking water. Councillors chose to send this question to referendum as opposed to making a decision themselves. I continue to be bewildered about why fluoride is such a hot-button issue in Calgary. Calgarians rejected water fluoridation in four plebiscites between 1957 and 1971, before finally approving it in 1989 and reaffirming their support in 1998. All of the plebiscites were decided on pretty narrow margins. City Council chose to end water fluoridation about 10 years ago, ostensibly because of the maintenance costs of the necessary infrastructure.


I will be reserving the following post for an analysis of Edmonton's election, which I should be able to post within the next few days.

[Njall]

Edmonton Election Overview

Edmonton underwent a more major ward boundary redistribution compared to Calgary, and also adopted indigenous names for its wards. The old map can be accessed here, while the new map can be accessed here. I'll note that in this and following posts, if ward names are not capitalized, this is because the word was not meant to be capitalized in that indigenous language from which the name was drawn.

Mayor

Two-term progressive incumbent Don Iveson is retiring after eight years as Mayor. There are currently ten candidates registered to run to replace him. Out of the ten candidates, I would categorize five as notable:

• Kim Krushell, former Ward 2 Councillor: broadly centrist
• Mike Nickel, Ward 11 Councillor: populist conservative
• Michael Oshry, former Ward 5 Councillor: broadly centrist-to-conservative
• Amarjeet Sohi, former federal Liberal cabinet minister, former MP for Edmonton Mill Woods, and former Ward 12 Councillor: progressive
• Cheryll Watson, former Vice-President of Innovate Edmonton: broadly centrist

At this point, Sohi is generally seen as the frontrunner. Nickel has been in the race the longest, and is trying to coalesce anti-establishment support around him - however, it's unclear how large of a base he will be able to get in this way. Out of the other three candidates above, I would expect that Watson would be the most likely to break away from the pack to rise and challenge Sohi for frontrunner, but it remains to be seen if she will be able to do so.

Nakota Isga

This ward in suburban west Edmonton basically replaces the former Ward 1, apart from a handful of communities which were replaced by a few communities from the former Ward 6. Two-term incumbent centrist-to-progressive Ward 1 Councillor Andrew Knack is running for re-election. Knack won re-election in 2017 with 69% of the vote, and has only attracted one challenger so far. If the dynamic of the race stays the same, I would expect Knack to be heavily favoured to win.

Anirniq

This ward in suburban northwest Edmonton takes in the majority of the former Ward 2 combined with the most northwesterly portions of the former Ward 3. Two-term incumbent centrist Ward 2 Councillor Bev Esslinger is running for re-election. Esslinger won re-election in Ward 2 in 2017 with 55% of the vote. There are currently five candidates who have filed to challenge her, none of whom have extraordinarily distinguished themselves from the pack at this point.

tastawiyiniwak

This ward in suburban north Edmonton takes in the majority of the former Ward 3, combined with several communities previously in the northern part of the former Ward 7. One-term incumbent conservative Ward 3 Councillor Jon Dziadyk is running for re-election in this ward. In 2017, Dziadyk ousted progressive incumbent Dave Loken by a final tally of 30%-26% in Ward 3, despite being outspent by an approximate 12:1 margin by Loken. Dziadyk is currently facing four challengers, including former UCP candidate Karen Principe and NDP constituency office employee Cody Bondarchuk, the latter of whom briefly attained local fame in late 2019 as the "Robin Hood of McNuggets." I also happened to notice today that former Edmonton Poet Laureate Ahmed Ali has also jumped into the race. While I would consider Dziadyk to be favoured at this point, the race certainly isn't safe for him.

Dene

This ward in suburban northeast Edmonton has the exact boundaries of the former Ward 4. Unsurprisingly, one-term incumbent progressive Ward 4 Councillor Aaron Paquette is running for re-election here. Paquette was elected in 2017 with 24% of the vote in a 12-way race for a then-open council seat. He is currently facing three challengers, including Tricia Velthuizen, who is currently the Press Secretary for Nate Glubish, the UCP Minister for Service Alberta and MLA for Strathcona-Sherwood Park. Similar to Dziadyk in the previous ward, I would consider Paquette to be favoured at this point due to incumbency and name recognition - however, given the low percentage of the vote that he won by in 2017 (due to the number of candidates, admittedly) and the fact that he'll likely be targeted by UCP-aligned interests given his tenure as the most vocally progressive member of council, I can't call him as safe at this point.

O-day'min

This ward in central Edmonton is comprised of the majority of the former Ward 6, combined with a few communities from the former Ward 2 to give it even more of an inner-city character. Two-term incumbent centrist Ward 6 Councillor Scott McKeen has decided to retire, effectively leaving this as an open seat. However, for some reason, four-term incumbent centrist-to-conservative Ward 7 Councillor Tony Caterina has decided to run for re-election here, as opposed to either of the wards that the former Ward 7 was split between. This choice of Caterina's confuses me, as this downtown-centred ward is likely one of the two most progressive wards in the city (it voted close to 65% NDP in the 2019 provincial election, and its NDP+Liberal vote would have certainly exceeded the Conservatives' in the 2019 federal election). In other words, he's a stale incumbent who's chosen to run for re-election in a ward full of young progressives who are looking for change. Additionally, even in his old ward which was more suited to him, he only got 34% of the vote in 2017 and barely got re-elected. If he gets re-elected, it will be because of vote-splitting, as 7 candidates have already filed to run against him. The most visible progressive candidate at this point is Joshua Wolchansky, a young and openly-gay public servant who appears to have the backing of David Shepherd, the NDP MLA for Edmonton-City Centre, which overlaps with the majority of the ward.

Métis

This ward in central-eastern Edmonton is effectively brand-new, straddling the North Saskatchewan River to combine the majority of the former Ward 7, the eastern (approximate) half of the former Ward 8, and a small segment of the former Ward 11. It is also a completely open seat: the Ward 7 incumbent is running in O-day'min, the Ward 11 Councillor is running for Mayor (both as previously mentioned), and four-term incumbent progressive Ward 8 Councillor Ben Henderson is retiring. There are seven candidates running for this seat, including several candidates who ran in predecessor wards in 2017. However, the candidate who appears to be generating the most buzz, at least on the progressive side of the spectrum, is Ashley Salvador, a highly community-involved advocate for affordable housing and sustainable urban design, amongst many other issues.

sipiwiyiniwik

This ward in suburban west Edmonton is made up of the entirety of the former Ward 5, plus a handful of communities from the former Ward 1. One-term incumbent centrist Ward 5 Councillor Sarah Hamilton is running for re-election in this ward. In 2017, Hamilton won with 36% of the vote in a nine-way race, beating out a list of candidates including a former area MLA, although to be fair to the other candidates, she had the vocal support of former Mayor Stephen Mandel throughout the race. She is only facing two challengers so far, and I would expect her to be favoured in this race, barring something unexpected.

papastew

This ward in central-south Edmonton, including Old Strathcona and the University of Alberta, is made up of approximately the western half of the former Ward 8 and the northern half of the former Ward 10 (plus some industrial portions of the former Ward 11). Like Ward Métis, there is no incumbent here, as both Councillor Henderson (Ward and two-term incumbent centrist Ward 10 Councillor Michael Walters are retiring. There are five candidates registered at this time, and from what I can tell, the two candidates with the largest profiles would be incumbent Edmonton Public School Board Trustee Michael Janz and Kristen Goa, who was the runner-up in Ward 8 in 2017. Janz and Goa are both progressives, and given that much of this ward overlaps with territory that is safe for both the provincial and federal NDP, I wouldn't be surprised if this were to remain a progressive-progressive head-to-head race.

pihêsiwin

This ward in suburban southwest Edmonton contains about 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the former Ward 9, which had numerous fast-growing communities within its borders. One-term incumbent centrist-to-conservative Ward 9 Councillor Tim Cartmell is running for re-election here. Cartmell was backed by former MLA and Premier Dave Hancock in 2017, and he ended up winning the open seat with 42% of the vote in a five-way race. Only one person has filed to run against him so far, so I'd say that Cartmell has a pretty good shot at getting re-elected.

Ipiihkoohkanipiaohtsi

This ward in suburban southwest Edmonton was formed from the southern half of the former Ward 10, and the portion of the former Ward 9 which was not included in Ward pihêsiwin. As Councillor Cartmell is running in Ward pihêsiwin and Councillor Walters is retiring, this ward is without an incumbent. Five candidates have filed to run so far, and at this point, the landscape of the race is quite murky. I've seen the most activity from Rhiannon Hoyle (former President of the Alberta Party under Stephen Mandel, amongst other things) so far, but I wouldn't be comfortable calling her, or any of the other candidates, as frontrunner at this time.

Karhiio

This ward in suburban southeast Edmonton is comprised of the bulk of the residential areas from the former Ward 11, and about a third of the former Ward 12. Ward Karhiio, along with the neighbouring Ward Sspomitapi, are almost certainly the two most diverse wards in the city, with many recent immigrants (particularly from South Asia) making their homes here. With Councillor Nickel running for Mayor and Councillor Banga running in the neighbouring ward (more in the next section), this ward is without an incumbent. Four candidates are running so far, and of them, Keren Tang (who was the 2017 runner-up in Ward 11) and Shamair Turner appear to be drawing the most attention. However, both seem to at least lean progressive, and in this ward, such a head-to-head could potentially lead to a vote split. The politics of this area are quite mixed, and while it's very possible for a progressive to win here (the local MLAs are all NDP, and Amarjeet Sohi represented parts of the ward both municipally and federally), I'll have to reserve my judgement until we're closer to the election.

Sspomitapi

Finally, this ward in suburban southeast Edmonton is made up of the parts of the former Wards 11 and 12 which were not put into Ward Karhiio, although more of the communities in this ward were from the former Ward 12. Unsurprisingly, given that, two-term incumbent centrist-to-conservative Ward 12 Councillor Mohinder (Moe) Banga is running for re-election here. Only two candidates have filed to challenge him, and after winning his seat in a 32-way by-election in 2016 with less than 20% of the vote, Banga was re-elected in 2017 with 46% of the vote. Neither of his challengers appear to have momentum yet, and while this could change, I would consider Banga to be favoured at this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the equalization referendum will act as a kind of leadership review of Kenney? If he loses the referendum, do you think he might resign?

[Njall]

I wonder if the equalization referendum will act as a kind of leadership review of Kenney? If he loses the referendum, do you think he might resign?

It's possible, although the effect would likely be indirect. I don't expect the referendum to fail, in part because of Alberta progressives' historic habit of ignoring/declining ballots for votes that they see as illegitimate (like in Senate nominee elections - declined and spoiled ballots are highest in progressive areas). However, even a result like 60% in favour would likely be seen as disappointing for the western autonomist part of the UCP base, and would be seized upon by commentators as being a reflection of the mood against Kenney.

I don't think the failure of the referendum would leave enough time for UCP constituencies to force a leadership review in 2021 (the UCP convention will also be in the fall), but a review is already scheduled for their 2022 convention. Given the ideological makeup of the active UCP base, it's very possible that you could see a move to oust him. Kenney is already under attack from many sides of the political spectrum - it's obvious why progressives would oppose him, but rural and/or libertarian conservatives have been really put off by his policies to prevent covid, even though they've still been lighter than elsewhere in Canada. The anti-lockdown letter in early April which was signed by basically every rural MLA who isn't in cabinet, including the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Assembly, was pretty telling as to where a lot of the caucus and base is.

[Njall]

After much delay, I've finally been able to update the second post of this thread to be an overview of the Edmonton election - please feel free to peruse!

As well, here are some updates from Calgary from the last few weeks:

• Ward 6 Councillor Jeff Davison changed his election plans, deciding to run for Mayor instead of running for re-election to Council. With this decision, three of the four Councillors who were first elected in 2017 are now running for Mayor. Ideologically, Davison falls roughly in between Gondek and Farkas.
• In a move that was likely related to the above, former Ward 6 Councillor Richard Pootmans announced that he would be running for his old seat. This makes him the second member of Council who departed in 2017 and appears to now be trying for a comeback (the first was Andre Chabot, who ran for Mayor in 2017, while Pootmans didn't run for re-election). Pootmans served two terms on Council between 2010 and 2017, and I would characterize him as a centrist-to-progressive pragmatist.
• City Council is considering adding its own "fair deal" question to the ballot. In what is essentially an attempt to troll the provincial government, City Council is considering protesting the province holding their equalization referendum alongside the municipal election by adding their own question which would ask voters their thoughts on the arrangement which sees the big cities provide more money to the provincial government than they get back in services. In other words, it's something of a play on the conventional argument from certain Albertans about the purportedly-unfair fiscal relationship between the province and Ottawa. While unlikely to have any substantial impacts, I kind of hope Council goes ahead with this, if for no other reason than sheer hilarity.
• Finally, fringe Mayoral candidate Kevin J Johnston is in jail after having been repeatedly arrested for flagrantly violating COVID-19 health restrictions. Johnston is facing charges in three provinces related to his opposition to COVID-19 measures, as well as alleged assault and human rights charges. Johnston seems like an all-around scumbag, to say the least. He recently forced City Council to decide to not provide voters' lists to any candidates because of comments of his, including that he intended to go to the homes of health care workers while armed with guns. Unfortunately, as a registered Mayoral candidate, there wasn't a mechanism to provide him from receiving voters' personal info once the nomination period was done, so Council had to bar all candidates from receiving said info.

[beesley]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

[Njall]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

I believe that our Councils have fewer formal powers than your councils, although part of this is due to the fact that the division of taxing powers between orders of government leaves municipalities financially dependent on the provincial and federal governments. With that said, I personally feel that the effectiveness of representation in both Edmonton and Calgary at the Council level is quite diluted; for example, Calgary has 14 Council Wards but has 26 MLAs, so provincial ridings are almost half the size of Council wards.

Discussion have come up from time to time about expansion, but they tend to be turned back for two main reasons. The first is that optically, voters aren't necessarily willing to take on the expense (even if largely perceived) of funding additional councillors (I'm not sure about places like Birmingham, but in Calgary and Edmonton at least, Council positions are full-time paid roles, with staff). Secondly, both of the city councils have a tendency to be painted as the Boards of Directors of the Corporations of the cities of Edmonton and Calgary, and it's well-known that larger Boards of Directors tend to be less efficient in operations and decision-making. This article from 2014 that I found on a quick google search gives a rough example of the kinds of conversations had on this.

[Hatman 🍁]

It won't be long before wards are bigger than federal ridings too. Then things would be truly ridiculous.

Anyway, what is the current ideological breakdown of the two city's councils? Do you have a bloc that consistently votes with the mayor like we do in Ottawa? Or are things a bit more fluid?

[Njall]

Roughly speaking, I’d say that the ideological breakdown is this:

Calgary: 4 progressives, 3 moderates, 2 moderate conservatives, and 5 conservatives (plus 1 vacant seat)

Edmonton: 3 progressives, 1 moderate progressive, 4 moderates, 3 moderate conservatives, and 2 conservatives


With that said, especially since the UCP has taken office, I’d say that the voting tends to break down on more pro vs anti-establishment lines, or more cynically, those who want to focus on smart city building vs those who think the city needs to “get back to basics” (thereby impeding progress on city building). In both Calgary and Edmonton, I’d characterize the progressive Mayors as roughly leading the pro-establishment blocs, generally made up of those councillors who I’ve listed as moderates and progressives. These blocs also sometimes include the moderate conservatives, and sometimes even one or two of the conservatives in the case of Calgary. Calgary’s voting coalitions are more fluid than Edmonton’s, so it’s a little harder to draw conclusion there. Generally though, if you hear about something supported by the Mayor passing with minority opposition, you can pretty safely assume that the opposition came Councillors Chu, Farkas, and Magliocca in Calgary, or Dziadyk and Nickel in Edmonton, plus 0-3 more conservative leaning councillors depending on the issue.

[Njall]

Calgary Ward 5 incumbent Councillor George Chahal has withdrawn from the race in order to be the nominated federal Liberal Party candidate in Calgary Skyview. His withdrawal means that at least 9 of 15 seats on council will be occupied by newcomers after the election.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

Small city councils are the norm in western North America; whereas Montreal has 65 members in its city council and Toronto formerly had 44, Winnipeg has 15 and Vancouver has 11. Similarly, in the United States, there are 9 city council members in Seattle, 11 each in San Francisco and San Jose, and 15 in Los Angeles.

As Njall mentioned, smaller city councils are perceived as less expensive than larger ones; it's hard to imagine that voters would decide that this perceived expense is worth whatever benefits come from having a councillor who represents fewer constituents. For the same reason that reducing the size of the legislature is an obvious populist campaign tactic everywhere, the Ontario government cut the size of the Toronto city council by nearly half a few years ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

Small city councils are the norm in western North America; whereas Montreal has 65 members in its city council and Toronto formerly had 44, Winnipeg has 15 and Vancouver has 11. Similarly, in the United States, there are 9 city council members in Seattle, 11 each in San Francisco and San Jose, and 15 in Los Angeles.

As Njall mentioned, smaller city councils are perceived as less expensive than larger ones; it's hard to imagine that voters would decide that this perceived expense is worth whatever benefits come from having a councillor who represents fewer constituents. For the same reason that reducing the size of the legislature is an obvious populist campaign tactic everywhere, the Ontario government cut the size of the Toronto city council by nearly half a few years ago.

Fun fact: Winnipeg's city council used to have 50 members. They were not full time though.

[DC Al Fine]

Fun fact: My city, Halifax has fewer city councillors (16) that it has provincial representatives (20+ a few that bleed into other counties)

[Benjamin Frank]

Is there any demand for an expansion of the Calgary and Edmonton city councils? They are rather small - Edmonton has 12 councillors plus the mayor, yet similarly sized Birmingham here has 101? Do the city councils have a lesser jurisdiction?

Small city councils are the norm in western North America; whereas Montreal has 65 members in its city council and Toronto formerly had 44, Winnipeg has 15 and Vancouver has 11. Similarly, in the United States, there are 9 city council members in Seattle, 11 each in San Francisco and San Jose, and 15 in Los Angeles.

As Njall mentioned, smaller city councils are perceived as less expensive than larger ones; it's hard to imagine that voters would decide that this perceived expense is worth whatever benefits come from having a councillor who represents fewer constituents. For the same reason that reducing the size of the legislature is an obvious populist campaign tactic everywhere, the Ontario government cut the size of the Toronto city council by nearly half a few years ago.

The City of Los Angeles also has 99 neighborhood councils though.

https://www.lacity.org/government/popular-information/neighborhood-councils

[Benjamin Frank]

I hope the people of Alberta vote to get rid of daylight savings time.

[Njall]

Leger released an Alberta poll the other day which included some results on the Calgary and Edmonton Mayoral elections, and on the provincial referenda:

Calgary Mayor:
Undecided: 46%
Jeromy Farkas (conservative): 20%
Jyoti Gondek (moderate progressive): 12%
Jeff Davison (moderate conservative): 5%
Other candidates: 14% (none of the "other candidates" had more than 2% support)

Edmonton Mayor:
Undecided: 43%
Amarjeet Sohi (progressive): 29%
Mike Nickel (conservative): 10%
Kim Krushell (centrist): 5%
Michael Oshry (moderate conservative): 3%
Other candidates: 6%

Referendum: Remove Equalization from the Constitution:
Yes: 43%
No: 29%
Undecided: 27%

Referendum: Permanently Remain on Mountain Daylight Time:
Yes: 57%
No: 31%
Undecided: 12%

Plebiscite: Resume Fluoridation of Calgary's Drinking Water:
Yes: 58%
No: 26%
Undecided: 16%

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump!

Gondek seems to have taken the lead in recent polling

Janet Brown: Gondek 40, Farkas 32, Davison 11, Field 4
Leger: Gondek 26, Farkas 24, Davison 12, Field 5
Spadina:Gondek 31, Farkas, 30, Field 8, Davison 7

Davison's vote seems to be collapsing into Farkas' though, which will make this a close race.

[Njall]

Hello All! E-day is 9 days away and advance voting is underway in Calgary, Edmonton, and several other Alberta cities, so I'd say it's time for a long-overdue election update.

Provincial Political Context

Jason Kenney and the UCP government are highly unpopular - I cannot stress this enough. According to a poll this week from ThinkHQ, Kenney has a net approval rating of -55 (yes, that's negative 55). Only 22% of Albertans approve of his performance, while 77% disapprove. Even amongst 2019 UCP voters, Kenney only has a 39% approval rating with 60% disapproving. This has primarily come as a result of Kenney's disastrous handling of COVID-19, which led him to declare the province "open for good" in July, only to see the fourth wave overwhelm Alberta's healthcare system. Because of this, I expect candidates and referendum positions associated with the UCP to take a hit. This was apparent in the recent federal election, with the CPC vote share dropping by 12.4% in Calgary, 13.8% in metro Edmonton, and 14.5% in the rest of Alberta, and a cumulative drop of about 363,000 votes compared to 2019.

Calgary

As Hatman noted, the Mayoral race has primarily come down to Councillor Jyoti Gondek on the progressive side and Councillor Jeromy Farkas on the conservative side, with Councillor Jeff Davison, Brad Field, and Jan Damery rounding out the top tier of candidates (out of 27 total candidates). Gondek managed to dodge a potential vote-splitting curveball in the form of former Liberal MP and MLA Kent Hehr, who announced a run for Mayor as the "only true progressive candidate" two weeks before the nomination deadline, but then dropped out at almost the last possible moment, officially because he was concerned about having COVID, although I imagine that the pushback he was getting from progressives about likely costing Gondek the race had an impact as well. While Davison is solidly in third place, he has struggled to make gains in the polls due to his later entry into the race than his fellow councillors, as well as public scrutiny surrounding a PAC called "Calgary Tomorrow" which sprung up to support Davison. While Davison's campaign claims to be following all the rules, the level of apparent coordination between the campaign and the PAC, most notably the fact that all Davison lawn and boulevard signs are paid for by the PAC, have left many Calgarians with a sense of distaste. I personally think that the race leans towards Gondek, due to Farkas having a high floor but a low ceiling of support and Gondek being seen as the consensus anti-Farkas candidate, but I can't call the race for sure.

Another somewhat interesting recent storyline in the election has been in Ward 2, where it appeared that incumbent Councillor Joe Magliocca wasn't going to run again until he filed his nomination papers close to the nomination deadline. However, just yesterday, the RCMP announced that they were laying charges against him for breach of trust and fraud under $5,000 relating to fraudulent expense claims during this most recent council term. You can read the linked article for more details.

As I've previously stated, this election will bring lots of fresh faces to Council, as many incumbents have either retired or decided to run for Mayor. The only incumbent councillors who are running for re-election to their current seats are Joe Magliocca in Ward 2, Sean Chu in Ward 4, Gian-Carlo Carra in Ward 9, Diane Colley-Urquhart in Ward 13, and Peter Demong in Ward 14. All of them except for Demong, and possibly Carra, are facing energetic challengers. I'll also note that former councillors Richard Pootmans (Ward 6) and Andre Chabot (Ward 10) are attempting to re-take their former seats, after Pootmans declined to run for re-election in 2017 while Chabot attempted a run for Mayor.

This election is the first where corporate and union donations to candidates have been banned, and as such, PACs have popped up in a big way (in Calgary; for some reason they haven't emerged in Edmonton). Looking at their slates of endorsements can give a good sense of who the major players in each ward are. The PACs which have been active this election are as follows:

Calgary Tomorrow: as mentioned, they only exist to support Davison's mayoral run, so they're not endorsing Council candidates. The PAC is largely seen as a way for corporate donors to support Davison's campaign.

Calgary's Future/Calgarians for a Progressive Future: As its name suggests, this is a left-leaning PAC. It is almost-entirely funded and led by member locals of the Calgary & District Labour Council, most notably the unions representing employees of the City of Calgary and Calgary Transit.

Look Forward Calgary: This PAC is largely aligned ideologically with Calgary's Future, with the main difference being that it has been nurtured and led by individual civically-engaged progressives as opposed to leaders of organized labour groups.

Lead Calgary: This is the primary conservative PAC this election, although the details of who is involved in running and funding the group are pretty murky. The spokesperson listed on their registration, William McBeath, is a longtime conservative activist who currently works for the True North Centre for Public Policy, a right-wing/far-right alternative media outlet

Responsible Representation PAC: This group is led by retiring Ward 12 Councillor Shane Keating, who's largely been a centrist on council. The group is broadly non-ideological, and was instead created to promote candidates who the PAC's organizers believe are the most qualified for public office, based on problem solving, relationship building, financial acumen, etc.

Take Back City Hall: This isn't an official PAC, but it's been promoting a group of populist conservative candidates led by Craig Chandler, a longtime social conservative activist. If you don't know who he is already, please google him, I don't have enough space or time to explain who he is here, there's just too much.

With that out of the way, here are the slates that each PAC has endorsed. These will largely be the names to look out for on election night (except for Take Back City Hall, I hope). I will be combining Calgary's Future and Look Forward Calgary into a single list as many of their endorsements overlap, but where they differ, I'll indicate which PAC supports which candidate with the CF and LFC acronyms:

Calgary's Future / Look Forward Calgary:
Mayor: Jyoti Gondek (CF) / No endorsement (LFC)
Ward 1: Sonya Sharp (CF) / No endorsement (LFC)
Ward 2: Jennifer Wyness
Ward 3: Jasmine Mian
Ward 4: DJ Kelly
Ward 5: Raj Dhaliwal
Ward 6: Lana Bentley
Ward 7: Erin Waite (CF) / Marilyn North Peigan (LFC)
Ward 8: Courtney Walcott
Ward 9: Gian-Carlo Carra (incumbent)
Ward 10: Abed Harb
Ward 11: Kourtney Branagan
Ward 12: Evan Spencer
Ward 13: Jay Unsworth
Ward 14: No endorsement

Lead Calgary:
Mayor: Jeromy Farkas
Ward 1: Steve Webb
Ward 2: Kim Tyers
Ward 3: Brent Trenholm
Ward 4: Sean Chu (incumbent)
Ward 5: Anand Chetty
Ward 6: Sanjeev Kad
Ward 7: Terry Wong
Ward 8: Natalie Winkler
Ward 9: Kimberly Feser
Ward 10: Andre Chabot
Ward 11: Rob Ward
Ward 12: No endorsement
Ward 13: Dan McLean
Ward 14: Peter Demong (incumbent)

Responsible Representation PAC
Mayor: No endorsement
Ward 1: Sonya Sharp
Ward 2: Jennifer Wyness
Ward 3: Jasmine Mian
Ward 4: DJ Kelly
Ward 5: Raj Dhaliwal
Ward 6: Richard Pootmans
Ward 7: Erin Waite
Ward 8: Courtney Walcott
Ward 9: Gian-Carlo Carra (incumbent)
Ward 10: No endorsement
Ward 11: No endorsement
Ward 12: Evan Spencer
Ward 13: Diane Colley-Urquhart (incumbent)
Ward 14: Peter Demong (incumbent)

Take Back City Hall:
Mayor: No endorsement (but explicitly anti-Gondek)
Ward 1: Gaz Qamar
Ward 2: No endorsement
Ward 3: Brent Trenholm
Ward 4: Sean Chu (incumbent)
Ward 5: Anand Chetty
Ward 6: Sanjeev Kad
Ward 7: Daria Bogdanov
Ward 8: Philip Mitchell
Ward 9: Kimberly Feser
Ward 10: No endorsement
Ward 11: Mike Jamieson
Ward 12: Craig Chandler
Ward 13: Dan McLean
Ward 14: No endorsement


Finally, on the fluoride plebiscite, ThinkHQ had a recent poll showing the yes side winning by about a three-to-one margin. While I don't think that it will be that wide of a margin, I do expect it to pass. One potential complication is that the ballot design has placed the question right at the bottom, and with everything else that needs to be voted on, I've anecdotally heard about a number of voters (including my dad) who missed the question and weren't able to vote.

That's the state of play in Calgary. I'll do another post soon about Edmonton.

[adma]

As Hatman noted, the Mayoral race has primarily come down to Councillor Jyoti Gondek on the progressive side and Councillor Jeromy Farkas on the conservative side, with Councillor Jeff Davison, Brad Field, and Jan Damery rounding out the top tier of candidates (out of 27 total candidates). Gondek managed to dodge a potential vote-splitting curveball in the form of former Liberal MP and MLA Kent Hehr, who announced a run for Mayor as the "only true progressive candidate" two weeks before the nomination deadline, but then dropped out at almost the last possible moment, officially because he was concerned about having COVID, although I imagine that the pushback he was getting from progressives about likely costing Gondek the race had an impact as well. While Davison is solidly in third place, he has struggled to make gains in the polls due to his later entry into the race than his fellow councillors, as well as public scrutiny surrounding a PAC called "Calgary Tomorrow" which sprung up to support Davison. While Davison's campaign claims to be following all the rules, the level of apparent coordination between the campaign and the PAC, most notably the fact that all Davison lawn and boulevard signs are paid for by the PAC, have left many Calgarians with a sense of distaste. I personally think that the race leans towards Gondek, due to Farkas having a high floor but a low ceiling of support and Gondek being seen as the consensus anti-Farkas candidate, but I can't call the race for sure.

Also, however they may vote federally or provincially, Calgarians have been notoriously prone to *not* favouring the right-of-centre mayorally (even Ralph Klein was a populist Liberal during his stint in office)

[mileslunn]

What are chances senate winner is not a right winger as they are a few independents who are centrist and one, Duncan Kinney is a progressive?  I would have thought with anger at Kenney there is a chance of that.  However it seems most not on right don't bother voting in senate elections as they are a waste.

For referendums, any chance Kenney's unpopularity kills them?  I would think right now with how unpopular Kenney is, mood for greater autonomy is much weaker than a few years ago.

[Njall]

What are chances senate winner is not a right winger as they are a few independents who are centrist and one, Duncan Kinney is a progressive?  I would have thought with anger at Kenney there is a chance of that.  However it seems most not on right don't bother voting in senate elections as they are a waste.

For referendums, any chance Kenney's unpopularity kills them?  I would think right now with how unpopular Kenney is, mood for greater autonomy is much weaker than a few years ago.

I think there's certainly a chance of some surprisingly-good results for some of the independent Senate candidates, but at this point I would expect the CPC candidates to still win. There are honestly too many unknown variables right now though. For instance, this race has largely flown under the radar, so I'm unsure how widespread knowledge of who the candidates are actually is. Another big unknown for both this and the referendums is what the differential levels of turnout will be in Edmonton and Calgary compared to other communities in the province, since both the big cities have competitive open Mayoral races and more competitive council races than usual, and there have been more opportunities for advance voting in the big cities (for example, Calgary had 7 days of advance voting, while nearby Airdrie only has 3 advance vote days). You're also right that historically, NDP and Liberal voters were much more likely to decline or spoil their Senate ballots. If the independents were to end up topping the results though, I'd still expect at least one CPC candidate to be among the three winners. Anecdotally, I've heard of some progressive voters (like my dad) voting for Duncan Kinney as well as Chad "Jett Thunders" Saunders, who's also running a joke campaign, but not a third candidate. Since there are three winners, even if Kinney and Jett Thunders get the most votes, I could see a CPC candidate snagging the third spot just from progressives declining to use all three of their votes.

As far as the referendums, I'm still expecting them to pass, but Kenney's unpopularity will certainly make them noticeably closer than one would have expected when he first announced that we'd be voting on equalization. I know that within the UCP, there's a good amount of concern that Kenney's unpopularity could kill it. I've noticed over the last week that both the UCP and a PAC have released new waves of "vote yes for a fair deal for Alberta" signs and advertisements, again indicating some concern. And many progressives on social media have been strongly pushing the message to vote no as a rebuke to Kenney. The DST referendum will also be interesting - the question specifically asks whether or not people want Alberta to adopt permanent daylight time, but a professor from the University of Calgary has gotten a lot of attention in local media lately making the case why it would be healthier for Albertans to be on permanent standard time instead of daylight time. Since permanent standard time isn't an option, I've been anecdotally seeing a big uptick in the number of people who say they're going to vote no, even if they would prefer if we ended the twice-yearly changing of the clocks.

[Njall]

Common Sense Calgary, a conservative third-party group, has conducted and released results from a recent IVR poll that they commissioned of the Calgary mayoral race, as well as 12 of the 14 ward races (results from Wards 5 and 9 were not publicly released due to concerns pertaining to high margins of error). The group did a similar polling release in 2017, and although their claims that they correctly called the winners of every council race are technically true, I do recall them tending to overestimate the strength of conservative candidates. With that said, I'll list the results here, as they're still interesting snapshots of the race and are likely to be the only ward-level polls we see publicly. The poll was conducted by Northwest Research Group from October 7-9th, using a random sample of 4,636 Calgarians:

Mayor:
Jeromy Farkas: 31%
Jyoti Gondek: 30%
Jeff Davison: 12%
Brad Field: 8%
Jan Damery: 3%
Other candidates: 5%
Undecided: 12%

Ward 1:
Sonya Sharp: 36%
Steve Webb: 11%
Chris Blatch: 8%
Jacob McGregor: 8%
Gaz Qamar: 4%
Other candidates: 13%
Undecided: 20%

Ward 2:
Jennifer Wyness: 37%
Kim Tyers: 29%
Joe Magliocca (incumbent): 12%
Sareen Singh: 3%
Other candidates: 3%
Undecided: 16%

Ward 3:
Jasmine Mian: 31%
Brent Trenholm: 23%
Nate Pike: 9%
Jun Lin: 7%
Ian McAnerin: 6%
Gurbir Nijjar: 5%
Other candidates: 4%
Undecided: 16%

Ward 4:
Sean Chu (incumbent): 47%
DJ Kelly: 29%
Angela McIntyre: 8%
Shane Roberts: 3%
Undecided: 13%

Ward 5:
NO RESULTS REPORTED

Ward 6:
Richard Pootmans: 41%
Sanjeev Kad: 17%
Lana Bentley: 14%
Other candidates: 2%
Undecided: 26%

Ward 7:
Terry Wong: 21%
Erin Waite: 18%
Heather McRae: 11%
Marilyn North Peigan: 6%
Daria Bogdanov: 3%
Other candidates: 14%
Undecided: 27%

Ward 8:
Gary Bobrovitz: 18%
Courtney Walcott: 14%
Cornelia Weibe: 12%
Paul Bergmann: 11%
Natalie Winkler: 8%
Philip Mitchel: 7%
Other candidates: 9%
Undecided: 21%

Ward 9:
NO RESULTS REPORTED

Ward 10:
Andre Chabot: 35%
Abed Harb: 10%
Bud Thurlow: 9%
Tony Dinh: 5%
Leslyn Joseph: 3%
Jesse Minhas: 3%
Other candidates: 15%
Undecided: 20%

Ward 11:
Rob Ward: 26%
Kourtney Branagan: 16%
Geoff Vanderburg: 10%
Mike Jamieson: 7%
Lauren Herschel: 5%
Devin DeFraine: 4%
Vance Bertram: 3%
Other candidates: 1%
Undecided: 29%

Ward 12:
Evan Spencer: 32%
Craig Chandler: 19%
Stephan Phan: 14%
Mike LaValley: 5%
John Duta: 3%
Teresa Hargreaves: 3%
Other candidates: 3%
Undecided: 20%

Ward 13:
Dan McLean: 46%
Diane Colley-Urquhart (incumbent): 17%
Jay Unsworth: 14%
Undecided: 14%

Ward 14:
Peter Demong (incumbent): 57%
Anton Ovtchinnikov: 13%
Andrea Hinton: 11%
Other candidates: 2%
Undecided: 17%


For those keeping score, if the poll results in those 12 wards ended up being the actual election results, the winners would include four candidates endorsed by at least one of the progressive PACs, six candidates endorsed by the main conservative PAC (plus Jeromy Farkas as Mayor), one candidate endorsed by the Responsible Representation PAC but not endorsed by any of the ideological PACs (former Councillor Richard Pootmans in Ward 6), and one candidate not endorsed by any PACs (Gary Bobrovitz, a former longtime TV journalist who covered city hall, in Ward . The winners would also include only two incumbent councillors, plus two former councillors reclaiming their old seats. Somewhat weirdly, these results would also see several suburban wards ending up with more progressive representatives than the inner-city wards.

[Njall]

Elections Calgary confirmed this afternoon that the unofficial advance vote turnout between October 4-10 was 141,329. This is nearly double 2017's advance poll turnout of 74,965.

For comparison purposes, the total turnout in 2017 ended up being 387,581, which was a 58.1% turnout rate.

[Njall]

Edmonton Election Update

Compared to Calgary, Edmonton's elections this year have been more of a low-key affair. For one thing, PAC activity in Edmonton has basically been non-existent, with the only registered third-party advertiser being Climate Justice Edmonton. Polling has also been scarce, with the last mayoral poll being the Leger one from July which I previously posted, showing Amarjeet Sohi leading Mike Nickel 29%-10% with 43% undecided.

The mayoral race, as predicted, has largely come down to a race between former federal Liberal cabinet minister and former City Councillor Amarjeet Sohi, and populist conservative Councillor Mike Nickel. The dynamics of the race are kind of like the Gondek-Farkas race in Calgary, except that most observers believe that Sohi will carry the day, while the Calgary race is too close to call. Former City Councillors Kim Krushell and Michael Oshry, and former Innovate Edmonton VP Cheryll Watson have also run respectable campaigns, but none of them have been able to get the breakthrough needed to seriously challenge Sohi and Nickel for the top two positions.

The lack of PACs in Edmonton compared to Calgary has made it more difficult to identify approximate ideological slates of candidates. About a month ago, reports emerged that a group of influential NDP organizers and labour leaders had attempted to organize a single progressive slate to minimize the chances of vote-splitting. While the effort was never formally launched, several candidates who were involved in those discussions have since been endorsed by certain NDP MLAs, as well as the Edmonton and District Labour Council. I'll note here that due to Edmonton's status of being the home turf of the provincial NDP and having a deeper progressive voting pool than Calgary, Edmonton's labour council has tended to be less pragmatic than Calgary's in making endorsements, prioritizing factors such as candidates' ties to the labour movement and NDP leadership over other factors like actual odds of winning.

With that last point in mind, I'll mention that outgoing Mayor Don Iveson, a proud progressive who detests partisan influence in municipal politics, has followed an interesting strategy in making a handful of endorsements in council races. He has endorsed in four of the 12 council races, each time picking a progressive candidate with lots of knowledge and experience in areas such as urban planning, and crucially, having not been backed by the NDP or labour establishment (in three of the four cases - the one exception being Ahmed Ali, Edmonton's former poet laureate, who was also endorsed by the Edmonton & District Labour Council). Iveson's endorsed candidates are Keren Tang in Ward Karhiio, Ashley Salvador in Ward Metis, Anne Stevenson in Ward O-day'min, and Ahmed Ali in Ward tastawiyiniwak. You've seen some incumbent city councillors, both outgoing and re-running, follow Iveson's lead in endorsing well-qualified, non-party-aligned candidates, such as Councillor Andrew Knack's endorsement of Ashley Salvador in Ward Metis, Councillor Ben Henderson's endorsement of Kristen Goa in Ward papastew, and Councillor Michael Walters' endorsement of Rhiannon Hoyle in Ward Ipiihkoohkanipiaohtsi.

In response to these and other endorsements, Mike Nickel has seemed to be putting together his own populist slate, so to speak, of council candidates who he has endorsed and who have endorsed him in turn.

In the next section, I'll list the members of Nickel's slate, as well as the slate of endorsees from the Edmonton & District Labour Council. While these lists should help identify some candidates to watch, it's important to note that some well-positioned incumbent councillors (Andrew Knack in Ward Nakota Isga, Sarah Hamilton in Ward sipiwiyiniwak, Moe Banga in Ward Sspomitapi, and Bev Esslinger in Ward Anirniq) aren't part of either "slate" as they're not populist enough for Nickel and not progressive enough for the Labour Council. Under the Labour Council list, I'll also indicate which of those candidates were cross-endorsed by Climate Justice Edmonton.


Mike Nickel's Populist Slate
Mayor: Mike Nickel
Ward Anirniq: Ali Haymour
Ward Dene: Tricia Velthuizen
Ward Ipiihkoohkanipiaohtsi: Jennifer Rice
Ward Karhiio: No endorsement
Ward Metis: Caroline Matthews
Ward Nakota Isga: Dave Olivier
Ward O-day'min: Tony Caterina (incumbent; running in a new ward)
Ward papastew: Tarcy Schindelka
Ward pihesiwin: Tim Cartmell (incumbent)
Ward sipiwiyiniwak: Derek Hlady
Ward Sspomitapi: No endorsement
Ward tastawiyiniwak: Jon Dziadyk (incumbent)


Edmonton & District Labour Council
Mayor: No endorsement
Ward Anirniq: Erin Rutherford
Ward Dene: Aaron Paquette (incumbent)
Ward Ipiihkoohkanipiaohtsi: Glynnis Lieb (also endorsed by Climate Justice Edmonton)
Ward Karhiio: Shamair Turner (also endorsed by Climate Justice Edmonton)
Ward Metis: Cori Longo (also endorsed by Climate Justice Edmonton)
Ward Nakota Isga: No endorsement
Ward O-day'min: No endorsement (Joshua Wolchansky is endorsed by Climate Justice Edmonton and NDP MLA David Shepherd)
Ward papastew: Michael Janz (Climate Justice Edmonton is backing Haruun Ali)
Ward pihesiwin: No endorsement (Climate Justice Edmonton is backing Guiscela Perez Arellano)
Ward sipiwiyiniwak: No endorsement
Ward Sspomitapi: Rashpal Sehmby
Ward tastawiyiniwak: Ahmed Ali

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks so much for this, Njall. It will make following the results much easier